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Sha Tin · 2021-11-13

Race 2

Class 4 GOOD (AWT) 1650m 11 runners

Result

Official · 1.39.18
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 0 SOLAR POWER Wire to wire 1.39.18 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) K H Chan · C H Yip 5 5.1 NOSE
2 0 YES WE CAN Closed strongly B1/TT M L Yeung · T P Yung 4 25.0 NOSE
3 0 FAST PACE H L Ferraris · C Fownes 2 11.0 1-1/4
4 0 TOYCOON CP J Moreira · P F Yiu 6 3.9 1-1/4
5 0 LONDON LUCKYSTAR Closed strongly PC K Teetan · L Ho 10 5.4 2-3/4
6 0 SUPER FAST Closed strongly CP/XB C L Chau · K W Lui 8 6.6 4-1/4
7 0 AMAZING TEENS H/TT V Borges · J Size 11 53.0 4-1/2
8 0 HANG'S DECISION B Z Purton · W Y So 3 5.7 5-1/2
9 0 WITTY SCHOLAR A Hamelin · D A Hayes 1 70.0 6-1/2
10 0 FAIRY FLOSS CP/H/TT1 C Schofield · P O'Sullivan 7 12.0 13-1/2
11 0 INGENIOUS FELLOW B/TT H T Mo · R Gibson 9 87.0 14-1/4

This site does not show odds as they change: the odds here are final prices after a race, or overnight prices before it.

Race 2 at Sha Tin on 2021-11-13 was Class 4 over 1650m, run on GOOD (AWT) going. SOLAR POWER, ridden by K H Chan and trained by C H Yip, won by NOSE, with YES WE CAN second and FAST PACE third. The winner led throughout. The 3.9 favourite TOYCOON finished 4th.

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. SOLAR POWER—2. YES WE CAN+0.05L3. FAST PACE+1.25L4. TOYCOON+1.25L5. LONDON LUCKYSTAR+2.75L6. SUPER FAST+4.25L7. AMAZING TEENS+4.5L8. HANG'S DECISION+5.5L9. WITTY SCHOLAR+6.5L10. FAIRY FLOSS+13.5L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2021-22
The model's top pick TOYCOON (20.2%) finished 4th — the winner SOLAR POWER was rated #4. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 0 TOYCOON 20.2% 4.94 4
2 0 HANG'S DECISION 17.2% 5.80 8
3 0 SUPER FAST 15.1% 6.63 6
4 0 SOLAR POWER 12.1% 8.26 1
5 0 FAIRY FLOSS 10.8% 9.28 10
6 0 FAST PACE 9.0% 11.14 3
7 0 LONDON LUCKYSTAR 6.9% 14.58 5
8 0 YES WE CAN 3.6% 27.75 2
9 0 AMAZING TEENS 2.8% 35.63 7
10 0 WITTY SCHOLAR 1.2% 85.08 9
11 0 INGENIOUS FELLOW 1.1% 89.68 11
TOYCOONHANG'S DECISIONSUPER FASTSOLAR POWER — wonFAIRY FLOSSFAST PACELONDON LUCKYSTARYES WE CANAMAZING TEENSWITTY SCHOLARINGENIOUS FELLOW

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

4 51

PLACE

1 30.5

4 18

10 63

QUINELLA

4,10 727.5

QUINELLA PLACE

1,4 91

1,10 353.5

4,10 203.5

FORECAST

4,10 1,095

TIERCE

4,10,1 8,875

TRIO

1,4,10 2,075

FIRST 4

1,4,6,10 1,695

QUARTET

4,10,1,6 42,614

All pools (2 more)

1ST DOUBLE

3/4 618

3/10 468

3 PICK 1

A1 —

A3 —

A2 18