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Sha Tin · 2021-11-13

Race 2

Class 4 GOOD (AWT) 1650m 11 runners

Race 2 at Sha Tin on 2021-11-13 was Class 4 over 1650m, run on GOOD (AWT) going. SOLAR POWER, ridden by K H Chan and trained by C H Yip, won by NOSE, with YES WE CAN second and FAST PACE third. The winner led throughout. The 3.9 favourite TOYCOON finished 4th.

Result

Official · 1.39.18
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 4 SOLAR POWER Wire to wire 1.39.18 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) K H Chan · C H Yip 5 5.1 NOSE
2 10 YES WE CAN Closed strongly B1/TT M L Yeung · T P Yung 4 25.0 NOSE
3 1 FAST PACE H L Ferraris · C Fownes 2 11.0 1-1/4
4 6 TOYCOON CP J Moreira · P F Yiu 6 3.9 1-1/4
5 11 LONDON LUCKYSTAR Closed strongly PC K Teetan · L Ho 10 5.4 2-3/4
6 2 SUPER FAST Closed strongly CP/XB C L Chau · K W Lui 8 6.6 4-1/4
7 5 AMAZING TEENS H/TT V Borges · J Size 11 53.0 4-1/2
8 3 HANG'S DECISION B Z Purton · W Y So 3 5.7 5-1/2
9 8 WITTY SCHOLAR A Hamelin · D A Hayes 1 70.0 6-1/2
10 7 FAIRY FLOSS CP/H/TT1 C Schofield · P O'Sullivan 7 12.0 13-1/2
11 9 INGENIOUS FELLOW B/TT H T Mo · R Gibson 9 87.0 14-1/4

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. SOLAR POWER2. YES WE CAN+0.05L3. FAST PACE+1.25L4. TOYCOON+1.25L5. LONDON LUCKYSTAR+2.75L6. SUPER FAST+4.25L7. AMAZING TEENS+4.5L8. HANG'S DECISION+5.5L9. WITTY SCHOLAR+6.5L10. FAIRY FLOSS+13.5L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2021-22
The model's top pick TOYCOON (20.2%) finished 4th — the winner SOLAR POWER was rated #4. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 6 TOYCOON 20.2% 4.94 4
2 3 HANG'S DECISION 17.2% 5.80 8
3 2 SUPER FAST 15.1% 6.63 6
4 4 SOLAR POWER 12.1% 8.26 1
5 7 FAIRY FLOSS 10.8% 9.28 10
6 1 FAST PACE 9.0% 11.14 3
7 11 LONDON LUCKYSTAR 6.9% 14.58 5
8 10 YES WE CAN 3.6% 27.75 2
9 5 AMAZING TEENS 2.8% 35.63 7
10 8 WITTY SCHOLAR 1.2% 85.08 9
11 9 INGENIOUS FELLOW 1.1% 89.68 11
TOYCOONHANG'S DECISIONSUPER FASTSOLAR POWER — wonFAIRY FLOSSFAST PACELONDON LUCKYSTARYES WE CANAMAZING TEENSWITTY SCHOLARINGENIOUS FELLOW

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

4 51

PLACE

1 30.5

4 18

10 63

QUINELLA

4,10 727.5

QUINELLA PLACE

1,4 91

1,10 353.5

4,10 203.5

FORECAST

4,10 1,095

TIERCE

4,10,1 8,875

TRIO

1,4,10 2,075

FIRST 4

1,4,6,10 1,695

QUARTET

4,10,1,6 42,614

All pools (2 more)

1ST DOUBLE

3/4 618

3/10 468

3 PICK 1

A1

A3

A2 18