Sha Tin · 2022-01-16 · 13:01
Race 1
Result
| Pos | No. | Horse | Jockey | Trainer | Draw | Odds | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 0 | EL VALIENTE Closed strongly TT 1.38.87 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) J Moreira · C Fownes | J Moreira | C Fownes | 6 | 5.4 | 3-3/4 |
| 2 | 0 | RUN DES RUN Closed strongly TT Z Purton · T P Yung | Z Purton | T P Yung | 3 | 3.4 | 3-3/4 |
| 3 | 0 | RUN RUN GOOD Closed strongly B/TT H Bentley · K L Man | H Bentley | K L Man | 7 | 9.7 | 4-3/4 |
| 4 | 0 | SMILING FACE Closed strongly SR/TT C Wong · D J Whyte | C Wong | D J Whyte | 1 | 18.0 | 6-1/2 |
| 5 | 0 | SHANGHAI GRACE Led early B M Chadwick · Y S Tsui | M Chadwick | Y S Tsui | 2 | 11.0 | 7-1/4 |
| 6 | 0 | SPEED FORCE Closed strongly B M F Poon · C W Chang | M F Poon | C W Chang | 8 | 7.8 | 7-1/2 |
| 7 | 0 | HEROIC CHAMPION Closed strongly B1 L Hewitson · P O'Sullivan | L Hewitson | P O'Sullivan | 12 | 76.0 | 8-1/2 |
| 8 | 0 | CROWN AVENUE Closed strongly B K Teetan · C H Yip | K Teetan | C H Yip | 10 | 6.8 | 9-3/4 |
| 9 | 0 | THE ELITES Closed strongly TT V Borges · F C Lor | V Borges | F C Lor | 14 | 29.0 | 9-3/4 |
| 10 | 0 | PRESIDENT STAR B/TT C Y Ho · C S Shum | C Y Ho | C S Shum | 13 | 58.0 | 10-1/2 |
| 11 | 0 | EVEN KEEL B/XB A Badel · A T Millard | A Badel | A T Millard | 4 | 10.0 | 16-1/4 |
| 12 | 0 | SINCERE BOY B- H W Lai · L Ho | H W Lai | L Ho | 9 | 37.0 | 16-3/4 |
| 13 | 0 | LUCKY TREASURE H/TT M L Yeung · K H Ting | M L Yeung | K H Ting | 5 | 62.0 | 25 |
| 14 | 0 | WONDERFUL FANTASY CP K H Chan · K W Lui | K H Chan | K W Lui | 11 | 45.0 | 27-1/2 |
This site does not show odds as they change: the odds here are final prices after a race, or overnight prices before it.
Race 1 at Sha Tin on 2022-01-16 was Class 5 over 1650m, run on GOOD (AWT) going. EL VALIENTE, ridden by J Moreira and trained by C Fownes, won by 3-3/4, with RUN DES RUN second and RUN RUN GOOD third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. The 3.4 favourite RUN DES RUN finished 2nd.
Race shape
Model ratings
| Rank | No. | Horse | Win % | Rated price | Pos |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 0 | EL VALIENTE | 29.1% | 3.44 | 1 |
| 2 | 0 | RUN DES RUN | 20.1% | 4.97 | 2 |
| 3 | 0 | RUN RUN GOOD | 11.2% | 8.95 | 3 |
| 4 | 0 | SMILING FACE | 6.3% | 15.95 | 4 |
| 5 | 0 | SPEED FORCE | 6.0% | 16.74 | 6 |
| 6 | 0 | SHANGHAI GRACE | 5.7% | 17.69 | 5 |
| 7 | 0 | CROWN AVENUE | 5.1% | 19.60 | 8 |
| 8 | 0 | THE ELITES | 5.0% | 19.88 | 9 |
| 9 | 0 | EVEN KEEL | 4.2% | 23.98 | 11 |
| 10 | 0 | PRESIDENT STAR | 2.7% | 36.43 | 10 |
| 11 | 0 | SINCERE BOY | 1.6% | 62.68 | 12 |
| 12 | 0 | WONDERFUL FANTASY | 1.1% | 90.41 | 14 |
| 13 | 0 | HEROIC CHAMPION | 1.0% | 95.46 | 7 |
| 14 | 0 | LUCKY TREASURE | 1.0% | 103.16 | 13 |
Model vs market
Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.
Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →
Dividends
WIN
6 54
PLACE
3 32
6 19
7 17
QUINELLA
6,7 94
QUINELLA PLACE
3,6 89.5
3,7 80
6,7 39.5
FORECAST
6,7 242
TIERCE
6,7,3 1,267
TRIO
3,6,7 245
FIRST 4
3,6,7,13 1,296
QUARTET
6,7,3,13 21,087
All pools (1 more)
3 PICK 1
A1 21
A3 —
A2 —