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Sha Tin · 2022-01-16 · 15:36

Race 6

Class 4 GOOD 1600m Course C+3 14 runners

Result

Official · 1.35.21
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 0 CORDYCEPS TWO Closed strongly 1.35.21 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) V Borges · C H Yip 8 32.0 SH
2 0 LEADING FORTUNE Closed strongly B J Moreira · J Size 11 7.4 SH
3 0 BIG BROOK Closed strongly B/TT L Ferraris · C Fownes 10 18.0 1-1/4
4 0 BOOM STITCH Closed strongly CP C Y Ho · W Y So 7 4.7 2-3/4
5 0 MR ALDAN Closed strongly B/TT M F Poon · A S Cruz 6 23.0 4
6 0 RIGHT AS RAIN Closed strongly B M Chadwick · C W Chang 14 11.0 4
7 0 TURQUOISE ALPHA CP Z Purton · P O'Sullivan 1 4.0 4
8 0 LOTUS FAVORITES Closed strongly H A Hamelin · D J Hall 5 98.0 4-1/4
9 0 GENERAL WINNER H Bentley · K H Ting 13 12.0 5
10 0 SPLENDID LIVING Led early CP-/H1/XB1 K H Chan · P F Yiu 9 28.0 5-1/4
11 0 NEW FUTURE B/TT K Teetan · T P Yung 2 8.3 6-1/4
12 0 RING BELLS XB1 A Badel · R Gibson 4 7.5 6-1/2
13 0 WONDER YEARS Closed strongly B/XB L Hewitson · D J Whyte 12 152.0 12
14 0 PRINCE OF BON BON M L Yeung · Y S Tsui 3 88.0 17-3/4

This site does not show odds as they change: the odds here are final prices after a race, or overnight prices before it.

Race 6 at Sha Tin on 2022-01-16 was Class 4 over 1600m, run on GOOD going. CORDYCEPS TWO, ridden by V Borges and trained by C H Yip, won by SH, with LEADING FORTUNE second and BIG BROOK third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. The 4.0 favourite TURQUOISE ALPHA finished 7th.

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. CORDYCEPS TWO—2. LEADING FORTUNE+0.1L3. BIG BROOK+1.25L4. BOOM STITCH+2.75L5. MR ALDAN+4L6. RIGHT AS RAIN+4L7. TURQUOISE ALPHA+4L8. LOTUS FAVORITES+4.25L9. GENERAL WINNER+5L10. SPLENDID LIVING+5.25L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2021-22
The model's top pick TURQUOISE ALPHA (29.9%) finished 7th — the winner CORDYCEPS TWO was rated #10. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 0 TURQUOISE ALPHA 29.9% 3.35 7
2 0 BOOM STITCH 13.0% 7.70 4
3 0 LEADING FORTUNE 10.0% 9.98 2
4 0 NEW FUTURE 9.8% 10.18 11
5 0 RIGHT AS RAIN 7.7% 13.01 6
6 0 GENERAL WINNER 6.7% 14.82 9
7 0 BIG BROOK 5.5% 18.06 3
8 0 RING BELLS 5.3% 18.94 12
9 0 MR ALDAN 4.1% 24.56 5
10 0 CORDYCEPS TWO 2.1% 48.37 1
11 0 SPLENDID LIVING 1.9% 52.54 10
12 0 LOTUS FAVORITES 1.8% 55.54 8
13 0 PRINCE OF BON BON 1.2% 82.44 14
14 0 WONDER YEARS 1.0% 99.66 13
TURQUOISE ALPHABOOM STITCHLEADING FORTUNENEW FUTURERIGHT AS RAINGENERAL WINNERBIG BROOKRING BELLSMR ALDANCORDYCEPS TWO — wonSPLENDID LIVINGLOTUS FAVORITESPRINCE OF BON BONWONDER YEARS

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

13 322.5

PLACE

5 61

10 22.5

13 81

QUINELLA

10,13 1,230

QUINELLA PLACE

5,10 245.5

5,13 998

10,13 360.5

FORECAST

13,10 2,485

TIERCE

13,10,5 46,557

TRIO

5,10,13 9,667

FIRST 4

4,5,10,13 8,059

QUARTET

13,10,5,4 229,419

All pools (3 more)

3 PICK 1

A2 —

A1 —

A3 22.5

5TH DOUBLE

4/10 34.5

4/13 2,123

TRIPLE TRIO (CONSOLATION)

3,5,7/4,8,12/Any Combination 63,255