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Sha Tin · 2022-01-16 · 15:36

Race 6

Class 4 GOOD 1600m Course C+3 14 runners

Race 6 at Sha Tin on 2022-01-16 was Class 4 over 1600m, run on GOOD going. CORDYCEPS TWO, ridden by V Borges and trained by C H Yip, won by SH, with LEADING FORTUNE second and BIG BROOK third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. The 4.0 favourite TURQUOISE ALPHA finished 7th.

Result

Official · 1.35.21
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 13 CORDYCEPS TWO Closed strongly 1.35.21 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) V Borges · C H Yip 8 32.0 SH
2 10 LEADING FORTUNE Closed strongly B J Moreira · J Size 11 7.4 SH
3 5 BIG BROOK Closed strongly B/TT L Ferraris · C Fownes 10 18.0 1-1/4
4 4 BOOM STITCH Closed strongly CP C Y Ho · W Y So 7 4.7 2-3/4
5 2 MR ALDAN Closed strongly B/TT M F Poon · A S Cruz 6 23.0 4
6 7 RIGHT AS RAIN Closed strongly B M Chadwick · C W Chang 14 11.0 4
7 9 TURQUOISE ALPHA CP Z Purton · P O'Sullivan 1 4.0 4
8 12 LOTUS FAVORITES Closed strongly H A Hamelin · D J Hall 5 98.0 4-1/4
9 6 GENERAL WINNER H Bentley · K H Ting 13 12.0 5
10 1 SPLENDID LIVING Led early CP-/H1/XB1 K H Chan · P F Yiu 9 28.0 5-1/4
11 3 NEW FUTURE B/TT K Teetan · T P Yung 2 8.3 6-1/4
12 11 RING BELLS XB1 A Badel · R Gibson 4 7.5 6-1/2
13 8 WONDER YEARS Closed strongly B/XB L Hewitson · D J Whyte 12 152.0 12
14 14 PRINCE OF BON BON M L Yeung · Y S Tsui 3 88.0 17-3/4

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. CORDYCEPS TWO2. LEADING FORTUNE+0.1L3. BIG BROOK+1.25L4. BOOM STITCH+2.75L5. MR ALDAN+4L6. RIGHT AS RAIN+4L7. TURQUOISE ALPHA+4L8. LOTUS FAVORITES+4.25L9. GENERAL WINNER+5L10. SPLENDID LIVING+5.25L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2021-22
The model's top pick TURQUOISE ALPHA (29.9%) finished 7th — the winner CORDYCEPS TWO was rated #10. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 9 TURQUOISE ALPHA 29.9% 3.35 7
2 4 BOOM STITCH 13.0% 7.70 4
3 10 LEADING FORTUNE 10.0% 9.98 2
4 3 NEW FUTURE 9.8% 10.18 11
5 7 RIGHT AS RAIN 7.7% 13.01 6
6 6 GENERAL WINNER 6.7% 14.82 9
7 5 BIG BROOK 5.5% 18.06 3
8 11 RING BELLS 5.3% 18.94 12
9 2 MR ALDAN 4.1% 24.56 5
10 13 CORDYCEPS TWO 2.1% 48.37 1
11 1 SPLENDID LIVING 1.9% 52.54 10
12 12 LOTUS FAVORITES 1.8% 55.54 8
13 14 PRINCE OF BON BON 1.2% 82.44 14
14 8 WONDER YEARS 1.0% 99.66 13
TURQUOISE ALPHABOOM STITCHLEADING FORTUNENEW FUTURERIGHT AS RAINGENERAL WINNERBIG BROOKRING BELLSMR ALDANCORDYCEPS TWO — wonSPLENDID LIVINGLOTUS FAVORITESPRINCE OF BON BONWONDER YEARS

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

13 322.5

PLACE

5 61

10 22.5

13 81

QUINELLA

10,13 1,230

QUINELLA PLACE

5,10 245.5

5,13 998

10,13 360.5

FORECAST

13,10 2,485

TIERCE

13,10,5 46,557

TRIO

5,10,13 9,667

FIRST 4

4,5,10,13 8,059

QUARTET

13,10,5,4 229,419

All pools (3 more)

3 PICK 1

A1

A3 22.5

A2

5TH DOUBLE

4/10 34.5

4/13 2,123

TRIPLE TRIO (CONSOLATION)

3,5,7/4,8,12/Any Combination 63,255