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Sha Tin · 2022-01-16 · 13:31

Race 2

Class 4 GOOD 1200m Course C+3 12 runners

Race 2 at Sha Tin on 2022-01-16 was Class 4 over 1200m, run on GOOD going. GOLDEN EMPIRE, ridden by Z Purton and trained by K W Lui, won by N, with STREET SCREAM second and COUNTRY BOY third. Victory came as the 3.3 favourite.

Result

Official · 1.09.78
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 8 GOLDEN EMPIRE 1.09.78 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) Z Purton · K W Lui 12 3.3 N
2 11 STREET SCREAM H/TT M Chadwick · A S Cruz 2 7.0 N
3 7 COUNTRY BOY H/P/TT A Badel · J Size 11 5.2 1-1/2
4 1 PACKING AWARD K Teetan · L Ho 6 4.3 1-1/2
5 4 TRUST ME B/H R Maia · C H Yip 7 7.2 1-3/4
6 3 SCIENCE PATCH B V Borges · P O'Sullivan 5 21.0 2-1/4
7 10 NICHOLSON RETURNS B M F Poon · D J Hall 4 37.0 3-3/4
8 9 NATURAL GOLD XB1 H Bentley · D J Whyte 1 39.0 4
9 12 BOYS PARTY B/XB L Hewitson · A T Millard 9 116.0 4
10 2 FANTASY B/XB A Hamelin · C W Chang 10 26.0 5
11 6 COMMON ROOM TT1 C Y Ho · C S Shum 8 22.0 10-1/2
12 5 CIRCUIT SPLENDOR E-/H1 M L Yeung · T P Yung 3 52.0 11-3/4

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. GOLDEN EMPIRE2. STREET SCREAM+0.05L3. COUNTRY BOY+1.5L4. PACKING AWARD+1.5L5. TRUST ME+1.75L6. SCIENCE PATCH+2.25L7. NICHOLSON RETURNS+3.75L8. NATURAL GOLD+4L9. BOYS PARTY+4L10. FANTASY+5L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2021-22
The model's top pick COUNTRY BOY (20.2%) finished 3rd — the winner GOLDEN EMPIRE was rated #3. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 7 COUNTRY BOY 20.2% 4.94 3
2 1 PACKING AWARD 18.6% 5.37 4
3 8 GOLDEN EMPIRE 18.3% 5.46 1
4 11 STREET SCREAM 13.5% 7.41 2
5 4 TRUST ME 6.4% 15.75 5
6 2 FANTASY 5.3% 18.81 10
7 10 NICHOLSON RETURNS 4.3% 23.03 7
8 6 COMMON ROOM 3.9% 25.65 11
9 3 SCIENCE PATCH 3.8% 26.62 6
10 5 CIRCUIT SPLENDOR 3.2% 31.68 12
11 9 NATURAL GOLD 1.4% 71.17 8
12 12 BOYS PARTY 1.1% 87.82 9
COUNTRY BOYPACKING AWARDGOLDEN EMPIRE — wonSTREET SCREAMTRUST MEFANTASYNICHOLSON RETURNSCOMMON ROOMSCIENCE PATCHCIRCUIT SPLENDORNATURAL GOLDBOYS PARTY

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

8 33.5

PLACE

7 18

8 15.5

11 20

QUINELLA

8,11 106

QUINELLA PLACE

7,8 33

7,11 54.5

8,11 45

FORECAST

8,11 182

TIERCE

8,11,7 672

TRIO

7,8,11 169

FIRST 4

1,7,8,11 145

QUARTET

8,11,7,1 2,834

All pools (2 more)

1ST DOUBLE

6/8 252.5

6/11 88.5

3 PICK 1

A3

A2

A1 23