Sha Tin · 2022-01-16 · 17:13
Race 9
Race 9 at Sha Tin on 2022-01-16 was Class 2 over 1200m, run on GOOD going. CALIFORNIA SPANGLE, ridden by Z Purton and trained by A S Cruz, won by 1-1/2, with TRILLION WIN second and WINNING DREAMER third. Victory came as the 1.3 favourite.
Result
| Pos | No. | Horse | Jockey | Trainer | Draw | Odds | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 4 | CALIFORNIA SPANGLE TT 1.08.34 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) Z Purton · A S Cruz | Z Purton | A S Cruz | 3 | 1.3 | 1-1/2 |
| 2 | 1 | TRILLION WIN CP A Badel · K L Man | A Badel | K L Man | 5 | 25.0 | 1-1/2 |
| 3 | 2 | WINNING DREAMER CP-/TT C Y Ho · F C Lor | C Y Ho | F C Lor | 2 | 12.0 | 1-1/2 |
| 4 | 12 | METRO WARRIOR B V Borges · D A Hayes | V Borges | D A Hayes | 4 | 24.0 | 2-1/4 |
| 5 | 3 | FANTASTIC WAY J Moreira · J Size | J Moreira | J Size | 10 | 7.8 | 2-1/4 |
| 6 | 6 | RED DESERT A Hamelin · J Size | A Hamelin | J Size | 1 | 58.0 | 3-1/4 |
| 7 | 7 | GOOD LUCK FRIEND CP K Teetan · P F Yiu | K Teetan | P F Yiu | 6 | 17.0 | 3-1/2 |
| 8 | 8 | WIND N GRASS TT L Ferraris · C W Chang | L Ferraris | C W Chang | 11 | 102.0 | 3-1/2 |
| 9 | 11 | VALIANT DREAM M F Poon · K W Lui | M F Poon | K W Lui | 9 | 57.0 | 3-3/4 |
| 10 | 9 | IGNITING TT K H Chan · K W Lui | K H Chan | K W Lui | 8 | 36.0 | 6 |
| 11 | 5 | CALIFORNIA RAD B/TT M Chadwick · A S Cruz | M Chadwick | A S Cruz | 7 | 23.0 | 7 |
| 12 | 10 | SPARKLING DRAGON TT R Maia · A T Millard | R Maia | A T Millard | 12 | 127.0 | 12-1/4 |
Race shape
Model ratings
| Rank | No. | Horse | Win % | Rated price | Pos |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 4 | CALIFORNIA SPANGLE | 46.7% | 2.14 | 1 |
| 2 | 3 | FANTASTIC WAY | 13.9% | 7.21 | 5 |
| 3 | 2 | WINNING DREAMER | 8.5% | 11.74 | 3 |
| 4 | 12 | METRO WARRIOR | 7.0% | 14.23 | 4 |
| 5 | 7 | GOOD LUCK FRIEND | 5.1% | 19.50 | 7 |
| 6 | 1 | TRILLION WIN | 5.1% | 19.67 | 2 |
| 7 | 9 | IGNITING | 4.9% | 20.56 | 10 |
| 8 | 11 | VALIANT DREAM | 2.7% | 37.56 | 9 |
| 9 | 5 | CALIFORNIA RAD | 2.5% | 40.56 | 11 |
| 10 | 6 | RED DESERT | 2.2% | 45.36 | 6 |
| 11 | 8 | WIND N GRASS | 0.8% | 126.05 | 8 |
| 12 | 10 | SPARKLING DRAGON | 0.7% | 149.95 | 12 |
Model vs market
Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.
Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →
Dividends
WIN
4 13.5
PLACE
1 36
2 30.5
4 10.5
QUINELLA
1,4 139.5
QUINELLA PLACE
1,2 200
1,4 53.5
2,4 39.5
FORECAST
4,1 154
TIERCE
4,1,2 576
TRIO
1,2,4 334
FIRST 4
1,2,4,12 873
QUARTET
4,1,2,12 6,829
All pools (2 more)
3 PICK 1
A3 —
A1 13.5
A2 —
8TH DOUBLE
9/1 110
9/4 43.5