Sha Tin · 2022-01-16 · 14:01
Race 3
Race 3 at Sha Tin on 2022-01-16 was Class 4 over 1650m, run on GOOD (AWT) going. APACHE PASS, ridden by C Y Ho and trained by P O'Sullivan, won by N, with SUN OF MAKFI second and WINMORE STAR third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. The 2.7 favourite ALL JOYFUL finished 8th.
Result
| Pos | No. | Horse | Jockey | Trainer | Draw | Odds | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 3 | APACHE PASS Closed strongly BO/XB 1.38.92 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) C Y Ho · P O'Sullivan | C Y Ho | P O'Sullivan | 4 | 43.0 | N |
| 2 | 11 | SUN OF MAKFI Closed strongly XB M Chadwick · D J Hall | M Chadwick | D J Hall | 3 | 7.8 | N |
| 3 | 8 | WINMORE STAR R Maia · K L Man | R Maia | K L Man | 2 | 5.9 | 1-1/4 |
| 4 | 4 | SUPER WIN DRAGON Closed strongly TT J Moreira · W Y So | J Moreira | W Y So | 1 | 4.3 | 1-1/2 |
| 5 | 5 | STEEL WIN Led early A Badel · C W Chang | A Badel | C W Chang | 6 | 22.0 | 2-1/2 |
| 6 | 9 | ASIAN ONE Closed strongly B/TT L Hewitson · A T Millard | L Hewitson | A T Millard | 11 | 80.0 | 2-1/2 |
| 7 | 1 | AMAZING TEENS H/TT V Borges · J Size | V Borges | J Size | 10 | 9.1 | 3-1/4 |
| 8 | 2 | ALL JOYFUL B Z Purton · T P Yung | Z Purton | T P Yung | 7 | 2.7 | 4-1/2 |
| 9 | 10 | CHIRON B/TT K Teetan · D A Hayes | K Teetan | D A Hayes | 9 | 13.0 | 5-3/4 |
| 10 | 7 | BEST FOR YOU B A Hamelin · Y S Tsui | A Hamelin | Y S Tsui | 8 | 61.0 | 7-1/4 |
| 11 | 6 | COURAGEOUS KNIGHT B/TT H Bentley · C S Shum | H Bentley | C S Shum | 5 | 34.0 | 8 |
Race shape
Model ratings
| Rank | No. | Horse | Win % | Rated price | Pos |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 4 | SUPER WIN DRAGON | 23.2% | 4.31 | 4 |
| 2 | 2 | ALL JOYFUL | 19.9% | 5.02 | 8 |
| 3 | 1 | AMAZING TEENS | 18.9% | 5.28 | 7 |
| 4 | 11 | SUN OF MAKFI | 8.2% | 12.24 | 2 |
| 5 | 5 | STEEL WIN | 7.7% | 12.91 | 5 |
| 6 | 8 | WINMORE STAR | 6.1% | 16.44 | 3 |
| 7 | 10 | CHIRON | 5.8% | 17.32 | 9 |
| 8 | 6 | COURAGEOUS KNIGHT | 3.3% | 29.86 | 11 |
| 9 | 7 | BEST FOR YOU | 3.0% | 33.01 | 10 |
| 10 | 3 | APACHE PASS | 2.9% | 34.54 | 1 |
| 11 | 9 | ASIAN ONE | 0.9% | 115.49 | 6 |
Model vs market
Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.
Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →
Dividends
WIN
3 433.5
PLACE
3 91
8 17.5
11 24.5
QUINELLA
3,11 1,799
QUINELLA PLACE
3,8 269
3,11 410.5
8,11 73
FORECAST
3,11 4,409
TIERCE
3,11,8 20,561
TRIO
3,8,11 2,073
FIRST 4
3,4,8,11 1,605
QUARTET
3,11,8,4 69,659
All pools (2 more)
2ND DOUBLE
8/3 1,554.5
8/11 53
3 PICK 1
A2 —
A1 —
A3 50