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Sha Tin · 2022-01-16 · 14:31

Race 4

Class 3 GOOD 1200m Course C+3 11 runners

Race 4 at Sha Tin on 2022-01-16 was Class 3 over 1200m, run on GOOD going. THE HULK, ridden by K Teetan and trained by C Fownes, won by 3/4, with WAR OF COURAGE second and QUADRUPLE DOUBLE third. The 2.8 favourite LIGHTNING BOLT finished 4th.

Result

Official · 1.09.18
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 3 THE HULK 1.09.18 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) K Teetan · C Fownes 10 15.0 3/4
2 7 WAR OF COURAGE B M Chadwick · K L Man 6 10.0 3/4
3 5 QUADRUPLE DOUBLE TT L Ferraris · D J Hall 1 9.2 1
4 8 LIGHTNING BOLT TT1 A Badel · C S Shum 7 2.8 1-1/2
5 6 KUMASI C Y Ho · K W Lui 4 15.0 1-3/4
6 9 ANGELS HUNTER L Hewitson · P O'Sullivan 5 110.0 2
7 10 SUPER FORTUNE CP/TT J Moreira · A S Cruz 11 4.7 2-1/4
8 2 SPEEDY MOUSE Z Purton · F C Lor 2 4.0 2-1/4
9 11 WILD WEST WING V Borges · J Size 8 38.0 2-3/4
10 1 FLYING BONUS P- K H Chan · C H Yip 9 75.0 5-1/4
11 4 MIGHTY VALOR TT1 H T Mo · P F Yiu 3 48.0 5-3/4

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. THE HULK2. WAR OF COURAGE+0.75L3. QUADRUPLE DOUBLE+1L4. LIGHTNING BOLT+1.5L5. KUMASI+1.75L6. ANGELS HUNTER+2L7. SUPER FORTUNE+2.25L8. SPEEDY MOUSE+2.25L9. WILD WEST WING+2.75L10. FLYING BONUS+5.25L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2021-22
The model's top pick SUPER FORTUNE (43.7%) finished 7th — the winner THE HULK was rated #5. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 10 SUPER FORTUNE 43.7% 2.29 7
2 2 SPEEDY MOUSE 16.6% 6.03 8
3 6 KUMASI 8.3% 12.02 5
4 11 WILD WEST WING 7.4% 13.55 9
5 3 THE HULK 7.3% 13.67 1
6 7 WAR OF COURAGE 6.6% 15.09 2
7 8 LIGHTNING BOLT 3.4% 29.34 4
8 1 FLYING BONUS 2.1% 48.00 10
9 5 QUADRUPLE DOUBLE 1.9% 51.32 3
10 4 MIGHTY VALOR 1.5% 66.76 11
11 9 ANGELS HUNTER 1.2% 85.56 6
SUPER FORTUNESPEEDY MOUSEKUMASIWILD WEST WINGTHE HULK — wonWAR OF COURAGELIGHTNING BOLTFLYING BONUSQUADRUPLE DOUBLEMIGHTY VALORANGELS HUNTER

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

3 157

PLACE

3 32

5 24

7 24.5

QUINELLA

3,7 527.5

QUINELLA PLACE

3,5 153.5

3,7 140

5,7 96

FORECAST

3,7 806

TIERCE

3,7,5 5,749

TRIO

3,5,7 1,231

FIRST 4

3,5,7,8 536

QUARTET

3,7,5,8 19,969

All pools (3 more)

1ST DOUBLE TRIO

3,8,11/3,5,7 245,159

3 PICK 1

A1

A3 50.5

A2

3RD DOUBLE

3/3 5,576

3/7 914.5