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Sha Tin · 2022-01-23 · 13:09

Race 1

Class 4 GOOD 1000m Course A 13 runners

Race 1 at Sha Tin on 2022-01-23 was Class 4 over 1000m, run on GOOD going. KOWLOON EAST STAR, ridden by R Maia and trained by K H Ting, won by 3/4, with FLYING HIGH second and TURBO POWER third. The 3.6 favourite CALIFORNIA VANES finished 6th.

Result

Official · 0.57.18
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 10 KOWLOON EAST STAR H/SR1/TT1 0.57.18 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) R Maia · K H Ting 13 10.0 3/4
2 3 FLYING HIGH H/TT M Chadwick · W Y So 5 9.8 3/4
3 2 TURBO POWER A Badel · K W Lui 10 5.2 1-3/4
4 11 CHEVAL VALIANT B/XB/H1/TT L Hewitson · D J Whyte 2 9.8 2
5 12 EL JEFE B/XB M F Poon · C H Yip 11 4.2 2
6 4 CALIFORNIA VANES TT1 Z Purton · A S Cruz 14 3.6 2-1/4
7 1 ISLAND SHINE BO-/B2 C Y Ho · P F Yiu 9 28.0 3-1/4
8 14 GIVE WAY PLEASE SR-/TT K C Leung · D A Hayes 1 15.0 3-3/4
9 6 HAPPY FAT CAT K Teetan · A T Millard 6 22.0 4-3/4
10 9 TSUEN WAN GLORY B1 H Bentley · K L Man 12 76.0 9-1/4
11 5 FORTUNE MARBO M L Yeung · T P Yung 7 40.0 10
12 8 SPLENDID STAR H T Mo · L Ho 3 86.0 10-1/2
13 13 ACA POWER TT- H W Lai · Y S Tsui 4 76.0 10-1/2
7 LUCKY GOR J Moreira · C Fownes

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. KOWLOON EAST STAR2. FLYING HIGH+0.75L3. TURBO POWER+1.75L4. CHEVAL VALIANT+2L5. EL JEFE+2L6. CALIFORNIA VANES+2.25L7. ISLAND SHINE+3.25L8. GIVE WAY PLEASE+3.75L9. HAPPY FAT CAT+4.75L10. TSUEN WAN GLORY+9.25L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2021-22
The model's top pick CALIFORNIA VANES (48.8%) finished 6th — the winner KOWLOON EAST STAR was rated #12. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 4 CALIFORNIA VANES 48.8% 2.05 6
2 12 EL JEFE 8.3% 12.09 5
3 2 TURBO POWER 6.5% 15.27 3
4 6 HAPPY FAT CAT 6.4% 15.64 9
5 3 FLYING HIGH 4.7% 21.15 2
6 14 GIVE WAY PLEASE 4.2% 23.69 8
7 1 ISLAND SHINE 4.2% 23.76 7
8 9 TSUEN WAN GLORY 3.9% 25.80 10
9 11 CHEVAL VALIANT 3.9% 25.90 4
10 5 FORTUNE MARBO 3.2% 31.00 11
11 13 ACA POWER 2.6% 38.90 13
12 10 KOWLOON EAST STAR 2.2% 45.23 1
13 8 SPLENDID STAR 1.1% 88.40 12
CALIFORNIA VANESEL JEFETURBO POWERHAPPY FAT CATFLYING HIGHGIVE WAY PLEASEISLAND SHINETSUEN WAN GLORYCHEVAL VALIANTFORTUNE MARBOACA POWERKOWLOON EAST STAR — wonSPLENDID STAR

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

10 105

PLACE

2 17

3 27

10 31

QUINELLA

3,10 453.5

QUINELLA PLACE

2,3 69

2,10 103.5

3,10 129.5

FORECAST

10,3 880

TIERCE

10,3,2 3,651

TRIO

2,3,10 497

FIRST 4

2,3,10,11 684

QUARTET

10,3,2,11 18,877

All pools (1 more)

3 PICK 1

A1

A3 24.5

A2