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Sha Tin · 2022-01-23 · 15:41

Race 6

Class 4 GOOD 1800m Course A 13 runners

Race 6 at Sha Tin on 2022-01-23 was Class 4 over 1800m, run on GOOD going. DARCI JOY, ridden by M Chadwick and trained by P F Yiu, won by N, with JOYFUL HEART second and RED ELYSEES third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. The 4.7 favourite RED ELYSEES finished 3rd.

Result

Official · 1.48.51
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 1 DARCI JOY Closed strongly B 1.48.51 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) M Chadwick · P F Yiu 4 4.9 N
2 7 JOYFUL HEART Closed strongly CP-/B1/TT K C Leung · F C Lor 5 17.0 N
3 10 RED ELYSEES Closed strongly B/TT J Moreira · K L Man 2 4.7 1/2
4 9 SUPER ELEGANCE Closed strongly V/TT A Hamelin · K H Ting 8 11.0 1-1/2
5 12 YES WE CAN Closed strongly B/TT M L Yeung · T P Yung 10 28.0 1-1/2
6 8 SHANGHAI DRAGON B Z Purton · T P Yung 1 7.1 2-1/4
7 3 PAKISTAN FRIEND TT K Teetan · W Y So 3 14.0 2-1/2
8 6 BIG BROOK Closed strongly B/TT L Ferraris · C Fownes 9 7.4 2-3/4
9 4 AI ONE Closed strongly B Shinn · D A Hayes 12 18.0 3
10 5 SMART PATCH B H Bentley · P O'Sullivan 6 24.0 4
11 13 LIGHT MY DAY Led early B/TT A Badel · C H Yip 11 15.0 4-1/4
12 11 FLYING MIGHTY B/TT M F Poon · D J Hall 7 13.0 5-1/4
13 2 DECISIVE ACTION CP/TT R Maia · C S Shum 13 28.0 6-1/2

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. DARCI JOY2. JOYFUL HEART+0.05L3. RED ELYSEES+0.5L4. SUPER ELEGANCE+1.5L5. YES WE CAN+1.5L6. SHANGHAI DRAGON+2.25L7. PAKISTAN FRIEND+2.5L8. BIG BROOK+2.75L9. AI ONE+3L10. SMART PATCH+4L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2021-22
The model's top pick RED ELYSEES (21.7%) finished 3rd — the winner DARCI JOY was rated #3. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 10 RED ELYSEES 21.7% 4.61 3
2 8 SHANGHAI DRAGON 17.1% 5.85 6
3 1 DARCI JOY 13.7% 7.30 1
4 4 AI ONE 8.9% 11.27 9
5 12 YES WE CAN 6.9% 14.41 5
6 3 PAKISTAN FRIEND 6.8% 14.64 7
7 6 BIG BROOK 6.4% 15.60 8
8 13 LIGHT MY DAY 5.5% 18.31 11
9 7 JOYFUL HEART 4.4% 22.72 2
10 5 SMART PATCH 2.4% 41.13 10
11 11 FLYING MIGHTY 2.2% 44.71 12
12 9 SUPER ELEGANCE 2.2% 44.92 4
13 2 DECISIVE ACTION 1.7% 58.99 13
RED ELYSEESSHANGHAI DRAGONDARCI JOY — wonAI ONEYES WE CANPAKISTAN FRIENDBIG BROOKLIGHT MY DAYJOYFUL HEARTSMART PATCHFLYING MIGHTYSUPER ELEGANCEDECISIVE ACTION

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

1 49.5

PLACE

1 18

7 54.5

10 18.5

QUINELLA

1,7 520

QUINELLA PLACE

1,7 170

1,10 44.5

7,10 159

FORECAST

1,7 1,164

TIERCE

1,7,10 4,642

TRIO

1,7,10 664

FIRST 4

1,7,9,10 2,158

QUARTET

1,7,10,9 42,503

All pools (4 more)

3 PICK 1

A1 24

A2

A3

5TH DOUBLE

9/1 438.5

9/7 310.5

TRIPLE TRIO

3,5,13/7,8,9/1,7,10 5,409,367

TRIPLE TRIO (CONSOLATION)

3,5,13/7,8,9/Any Combination 54,883