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Sha Tin · 2022-01-23 · 15:41

Race 6

Class 4 GOOD 1800m Course A 13 runners

Result

Official · 1.48.51
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 0 DARCI JOY Closed strongly B 1.48.51 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) M Chadwick · P F Yiu 4 4.9 N
2 0 JOYFUL HEART Closed strongly CP-/B1/TT K C Leung · F C Lor 5 17.0 N
3 0 RED ELYSEES Closed strongly B/TT J Moreira · K L Man 2 4.7 1/2
4 0 SUPER ELEGANCE Closed strongly V/TT A Hamelin · K H Ting 8 11.0 1-1/2
5 0 YES WE CAN Closed strongly B/TT M L Yeung · T P Yung 10 28.0 1-1/2
6 0 SHANGHAI DRAGON B Z Purton · T P Yung 1 7.1 2-1/4
7 0 PAKISTAN FRIEND TT K Teetan · W Y So 3 14.0 2-1/2
8 0 BIG BROOK Closed strongly B/TT L Ferraris · C Fownes 9 7.4 2-3/4
9 0 AI ONE Closed strongly B Shinn · D A Hayes 12 18.0 3
10 0 SMART PATCH B H Bentley · P O'Sullivan 6 24.0 4
11 0 LIGHT MY DAY Led early B/TT A Badel · C H Yip 11 15.0 4-1/4
12 0 FLYING MIGHTY B/TT M F Poon · D J Hall 7 13.0 5-1/4
13 0 DECISIVE ACTION CP/TT R Maia · C S Shum 13 28.0 6-1/2

This site does not show odds as they change: the odds here are final prices after a race, or overnight prices before it.

Race 6 at Sha Tin on 2022-01-23 was Class 4 over 1800m, run on GOOD going. DARCI JOY, ridden by M Chadwick and trained by P F Yiu, won by N, with JOYFUL HEART second and RED ELYSEES third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. The 4.7 favourite RED ELYSEES finished 3rd.

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. DARCI JOY—2. JOYFUL HEART+0.05L3. RED ELYSEES+0.5L4. SUPER ELEGANCE+1.5L5. YES WE CAN+1.5L6. SHANGHAI DRAGON+2.25L7. PAKISTAN FRIEND+2.5L8. BIG BROOK+2.75L9. AI ONE+3L10. SMART PATCH+4L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2021-22
The model's top pick RED ELYSEES (21.7%) finished 3rd — the winner DARCI JOY was rated #3. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 0 RED ELYSEES 21.7% 4.61 3
2 0 SHANGHAI DRAGON 17.1% 5.85 6
3 0 DARCI JOY 13.7% 7.30 1
4 0 AI ONE 8.9% 11.27 9
5 0 YES WE CAN 6.9% 14.41 5
6 0 PAKISTAN FRIEND 6.8% 14.64 7
7 0 BIG BROOK 6.4% 15.60 8
8 0 LIGHT MY DAY 5.5% 18.31 11
9 0 JOYFUL HEART 4.4% 22.72 2
10 0 SMART PATCH 2.4% 41.13 10
11 0 FLYING MIGHTY 2.2% 44.71 12
12 0 SUPER ELEGANCE 2.2% 44.92 4
13 0 DECISIVE ACTION 1.7% 58.99 13
RED ELYSEESSHANGHAI DRAGONDARCI JOY — wonAI ONEYES WE CANPAKISTAN FRIENDBIG BROOKLIGHT MY DAYJOYFUL HEARTSMART PATCHFLYING MIGHTYSUPER ELEGANCEDECISIVE ACTION

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

1 49.5

PLACE

1 18

7 54.5

10 18.5

QUINELLA

1,7 520

QUINELLA PLACE

1,7 170

1,10 44.5

7,10 159

FORECAST

1,7 1,164

TIERCE

1,7,10 4,642

TRIO

1,7,10 664

FIRST 4

1,7,9,10 2,158

QUARTET

1,7,10,9 42,503

All pools (4 more)

3 PICK 1

A3 —

A2 —

A1 24

5TH DOUBLE

9/1 438.5

9/7 310.5

TRIPLE TRIO

3,5,13/7,8,9/1,7,10 5,409,367

TRIPLE TRIO (CONSOLATION)

3,5,13/7,8,9/Any Combination 54,883