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Sha Tin · 2022-01-23 · 15:11

Race 5

Class 3 GOOD 1200m Course A 11 runners

Race 5 at Sha Tin on 2022-01-23 was Class 3 over 1200m, run on GOOD going. READY TO WIN, ridden by K C Leung and trained by F C Lor, won by N, with HERE COMES TED second and ROCK YA HEART third. The 3.1 favourite JUMBO FORTUNE finished 11th.

Result

Official · 1.09.62
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 9 READY TO WIN CP/XB/TT 1.09.62 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) K C Leung · F C Lor 9 10.0 N
2 8 HERE COMES TED B/TT M Chadwick · D J Hall 7 9.4 N
3 7 ROCK YA HEART CP-/H- C Y Ho · K W Lui 8 4.7 1/2
4 11 BIRDSVILLE M L Yeung · D A Hayes 1 27.0 2
5 6 EXCELLENT DADDY TT Z Purton · T P Yung 11 3.7 2-1/4
6 5 REGENCY BO BO B/TT K Teetan · C S Shum 5 31.0 2-1/2
7 2 PEGASUS GENERAL CP1 H Bentley · K H Ting 4 93.0 3
8 10 TURQUOISE HOPE B L Hewitson · P O'Sullivan 6 109.0 3-1/2
9 3 TEAM SPIRIT B/TT M F Poon · W Y So 10 18.0 3-1/2
10 4 THE CROWN TT1 B Shinn · C Fownes 3 15.0 4-1/2
11 1 JUMBO FORTUNE H1/TT1 J Moreira · A S Cruz 2 3.1 4-3/4

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. READY TO WIN2. HERE COMES TED+0.05L3. ROCK YA HEART+0.5L4. BIRDSVILLE+2L5. EXCELLENT DADDY+2.25L6. REGENCY BO BO+2.5L7. PEGASUS GENERAL+3L8. TURQUOISE HOPE+3.5L9. TEAM SPIRIT+3.5L10. THE CROWN+4.5L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2021-22
The model's top pick JUMBO FORTUNE (25.1%) finished 11th — the winner READY TO WIN was rated #7. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 1 JUMBO FORTUNE 25.1% 3.98 11
2 6 EXCELLENT DADDY 20.3% 4.94 5
3 8 HERE COMES TED 13.0% 7.71 2
4 3 TEAM SPIRIT 11.4% 8.76 9
5 7 ROCK YA HEART 9.5% 10.53 3
6 4 THE CROWN 6.9% 14.41 10
7 9 READY TO WIN 4.7% 21.26 1
8 2 PEGASUS GENERAL 3.2% 30.82 7
9 5 REGENCY BO BO 3.2% 31.71 6
10 11 BIRDSVILLE 2.2% 44.64 4
11 10 TURQUOISE HOPE 0.4% 235.68 8
JUMBO FORTUNEEXCELLENT DADDYHERE COMES TEDTEAM SPIRITROCK YA HEARTTHE CROWNREADY TO WIN — wonPEGASUS GENERALREGENCY BO BOBIRDSVILLETURQUOISE HOPE

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

9 100.5

PLACE

7 17

8 26

9 24.5

QUINELLA

8,9 384.5

QUINELLA PLACE

7,8 58

7,9 76

8,9 120.5

FORECAST

9,8 665

TIERCE

9,8,7 3,850

TRIO

7,8,9 623

FIRST 4

7,8,9,11 1,899

QUARTET

9,8,7,11 42,043

All pools (2 more)

3 PICK 1

A3

A1

A2 27

4TH DOUBLE

5/8 52.5

5/9 207