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Sha Tin · 2022-01-23 · 17:18

Race 9

Class 3 GOOD 2000m Course A 14 runners

Race 9 at Sha Tin on 2022-01-23 was Class 3 over 2000m, run on GOOD going. SUPERBELLA, ridden by J Moreira and trained by F C Lor, won by 1-3/4, with CHARITY GO second and INTREPID WINNER third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. Victory came as the 3.7 favourite.

Result

Official · 2.01.60
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 11 SUPERBELLA Closed strongly B/TT 2.01.60 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) J Moreira · F C Lor 4 3.7 1-3/4
2 1 CHARITY GO Closed strongly SR Z Purton · C S Shum 5 6.6 1-3/4
3 9 INTREPID WINNER Closed strongly B A Hamelin · A T Millard 7 13.0 2
4 10 NORDIC SKY Closed strongly SR/XB K C Leung · A T Millard 3 11.0 4
5 4 ENTRUSTED Closed strongly CP/TT A Badel · W Y So 2 9.6 5
6 2 HIT THE SHOT Closed strongly H-/B1/TT V Borges · J Size 10 20.0 5-1/4
7 12 VINCY Closed strongly B/TT M Chadwick · C H Yip 12 12.0 6
8 14 NATURAL STORM Closed strongly B/TT H T Mo · P F Yiu 9 37.0 6
9 5 ENZEMBLE Led early XB/H2/TT1 M F Poon · K L Man 6 32.0 6-1/2
10 13 CHEVALIER PRINCE CP M L Yeung · F C Lor 8 6.9 9-3/4
11 6 HELENE ALLIBOR B/TT1 B Shinn · D A Hayes 13 17.0 10-1/4
12 8 FLYING TURBO B L Hewitson · D J Whyte 14 73.0 11
13 7 KING TOURBILLON TT H Bentley · Y S Tsui 11 25.0 12-3/4
14 3 WINNING DRAGON H/CP1/TT K Teetan · A S Cruz 1 11.0 15-1/2

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. SUPERBELLA2. CHARITY GO+1.75L3. INTREPID WINNER+2L4. NORDIC SKY+4L5. ENTRUSTED+5L6. HIT THE SHOT+5.25L7. VINCY+6L8. NATURAL STORM+6L9. ENZEMBLE+6.5L10. CHEVALIER PRINCE+9.75L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2021-22
The model's top pick SUPERBELLA (21.1%) won this race. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 11 SUPERBELLA 21.1% 4.74 1
2 1 CHARITY GO 17.7% 5.64 2
3 4 ENTRUSTED 14.7% 6.80 5
4 13 CHEVALIER PRINCE 8.7% 11.46 10
5 3 WINNING DRAGON 7.4% 13.56 14
6 5 ENZEMBLE 7.0% 14.25 9
7 10 NORDIC SKY 5.5% 18.14 4
8 6 HELENE ALLIBOR 4.8% 20.65 11
9 12 VINCY 4.6% 21.59 7
10 2 HIT THE SHOT 2.4% 41.99 6
11 14 NATURAL STORM 2.0% 49.19 8
12 9 INTREPID WINNER 1.8% 56.58 3
13 7 KING TOURBILLON 1.2% 85.43 13
14 8 FLYING TURBO 1.0% 99.13 12
SUPERBELLA — wonCHARITY GOENTRUSTEDCHEVALIER PRINCEWINNING DRAGONENZEMBLENORDIC SKYHELENE ALLIBORVINCYHIT THE SHOTNATURAL STORMINTREPID WINNERKING TOURBILLONFLYING TURBO

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

11 37.5

PLACE

1 19

9 46.5

11 19

QUINELLA

1,11 143.5

QUINELLA PLACE

1,9 164.5

1,11 59.5

9,11 110

FORECAST

11,1 294

TIERCE

11,1,9 3,342

TRIO

1,9,11 528

FIRST 4

1,9,10,11 2,228

QUARTET

11,1,9,10 36,142

All pools (2 more)

3 PICK 1

A2

A3

A1 24.5

8TH DOUBLE

2/1 100

2/11 389