Sha Tin · 2022-01-23 · 14:11

Race 3

Group 1 GOOD 1200m Course A 8 runners

Race 3 at Sha Tin on 2022-01-23 was Group 1 over 1200m, run on GOOD going. STRONGER, ridden by C Y Ho and trained by D J Whyte, won by HD, with SKY FIELD second and HOT KING PRAWN third. The 3.9 favourite COURIER WONDER finished 6th.

Result

Official · 1.08.78

Pos	No.	Horse	Jockey	Trainer	Draw	Weight	Odds	Margin
1	5	STRONGER SR/XB 1.08.78 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) C Y Ho · D J Whyte	C Y Ho	D J Whyte	6	126 lb	18.0	HD
2	1	SKY FIELD TT B Shinn · C Fownes	B Shinn	C Fownes	1	126 lb	4.1	HD
3	4	HOT KING PRAWN Z Purton · J Size	Z Purton	J Size	4	126 lb	7.7	3/4
4	2	WELLINGTON XB/CP1/TT- A Badel · R Gibson	A Badel	R Gibson	2	126 lb	6.9	1-1/4
5	7	SUPER WEALTHY K Teetan · D A Hayes	K Teetan	D A Hayes	3	126 lb	8.3	1-3/4
6	3	COURIER WONDER J Moreira · J Size	J Moreira	J Size	7	126 lb	3.9	4
7	8	MASTER EIGHT M Chadwick · F C Lor	M Chadwick	F C Lor	8	126 lb	4.1	4-1/2
8	6	COMPUTER PATCH TT M F Poon · A S Cruz	M F Poon	A S Cruz	5	126 lb	45.0	4-3/4

Race shape

Beaten lengths

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2021-22

The model's top pick COURIER WONDER (31.8%) finished 6th — the winner STRONGER was rated #7. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.

Rank	No.	Horse	Win %	Rated price	Pos	Final odds
1	3	COURIER WONDER	31.8%	3.14	6	3.9
2	4	HOT KING PRAWN	17.5%	5.72	3	7.7
3	1	SKY FIELD	12.1%	8.26	2	4.1
4	8	MASTER EIGHT	10.9%	9.22	7	4.1
5	7	SUPER WEALTHY	10.5%	9.51	5	8.3
6	2	WELLINGTON	7.6%	13.21	4	6.9
7	5	STRONGER	6.4%	15.75	1	18.0
8	6	COMPUTER PATCH	3.3%	30.19	8	45.0

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

5 182

PLACE

1 14.5

4 26

5 35.5

QUINELLA

1,5 259

QUINELLA PLACE

1,4 52.5

1,5 76

4,5 145.5

FORECAST

5,1 620

TIERCE

5,1,4 3,545

TRIO

1,4,5 493

FIRST 4

1,2,4,5 706

QUARTET

5,1,4,2 20,093

All pools (2 more)

2ND DOUBLE

8/1 25.5

8/5 495

3 PICK 1

A2 —

A3 50.5

A1 —

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