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Sha Tin · 2022-01-23 · 14:41

Race 4

Class 4 GOOD 1400m Course A 14 runners

Race 4 at Sha Tin on 2022-01-23 was Class 4 over 1400m, run on GOOD going. BEAUTY LIVE, ridden by J Moreira and trained by F C Lor, won by 2-1/2, with PRIDE OF DRAGON second and CHARGE ON third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. Victory came as the 2.8 favourite.

Result

Official · 1.22.97
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 5 BEAUTY LIVE Closed strongly TT 1.22.97 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) J Moreira · F C Lor 12 2.8 2-1/2
2 13 PRIDE OF DRAGON Closed strongly R Maia · C H Yip 11 80.0 2-1/2
3 3 CHARGE ON Closed strongly B M F Poon · D J Hall 5 19.0 3-1/2
4 10 NORDIC WARRIOR Closed strongly B B Shinn · R Gibson 4 46.0 4-1/4
5 4 MILLENNIUM FALCON Closed strongly H Z Purton · T P Yung 7 3.1 4-1/2
6 2 LIFELINE VISION Closed strongly C Y Ho · D A Hayes 6 14.0 5
7 14 JIANGXI STAMINA Closed strongly B/TT K Teetan · W Y So 9 27.0 5-1/2
8 11 VUKAN Closed strongly XB M Chadwick · P O'Sullivan 14 8.3 5-1/2
9 9 DASSIT V Borges · J Size 8 131.0 5-1/2
10 7 ROBOT WARRIOR Closed strongly B H Bentley · P F Yiu 13 16.0 6
11 8 SUPER HORNET TT L Hewitson · D J Whyte 1 180.0 6
12 12 WIN CHARM Led early TT A Badel · K W Lui 3 145.0 6-3/4
13 1 INDIGENOUS REALM TT K C Leung · K L Man 2 28.0 6-3/4
14 6 DANDY YEARS B/TT A Hamelin · C S Shum 10 9.2 6-3/4

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. BEAUTY LIVE2. PRIDE OF DRAGON+2.5L3. CHARGE ON+3.5L4. NORDIC WARRIOR+4.25L5. MILLENNIUM FALCON+4.5L6. LIFELINE VISION+5L7. JIANGXI STAMINA+5.5L8. VUKAN+5.5L9. DASSIT+5.5L10. ROBOT WARRIOR+6L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2021-22
The model's top pick BEAUTY LIVE (22.4%) won this race. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 5 BEAUTY LIVE 22.4% 4.46 1
2 4 MILLENNIUM FALCON 18.5% 5.40 5
3 7 ROBOT WARRIOR 11.7% 8.55 10
4 11 VUKAN 10.2% 9.83 8
5 6 DANDY YEARS 8.3% 12.06 14
6 2 LIFELINE VISION 7.1% 14.12 6
7 14 JIANGXI STAMINA 6.4% 15.68 7
8 3 CHARGE ON 5.5% 18.18 3
9 10 NORDIC WARRIOR 4.1% 24.56 4
10 9 DASSIT 1.6% 63.59 9
11 1 INDIGENOUS REALM 1.4% 69.55 13
12 12 WIN CHARM 1.4% 72.49 12
13 13 PRIDE OF DRAGON 1.0% 96.67 2
14 8 SUPER HORNET 0.4% 236.63 11
BEAUTY LIVE — wonMILLENNIUM FALCONROBOT WARRIORVUKANDANDY YEARSLIFELINE VISIONJIANGXI STAMINACHARGE ONNORDIC WARRIORDASSITINDIGENOUS REALMWIN CHARMPRIDE OF DRAGONSUPER HORNET

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

5 28

PLACE

3 45.5

5 14

13 145

QUINELLA

5,13 1,382.5

QUINELLA PLACE

3,5 108

3,13 1,606.5

5,13 425

FORECAST

5,13 2,572

TIERCE

5,13,3 27,649

TRIO

3,5,13 5,797

FIRST 4

3,5,10,13 33,089

QUARTET

5,13,3,10 465,371

All pools (3 more)

1ST DOUBLE TRIO

1,4,5/3,5,13 440,637

3 PICK 1

A1 15

A2

A3

3RD DOUBLE

5/5 544

5/13 1,408