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Sha Tin · 2022-03-20 · 13:02

Race 1

Class 4 GOOD 1200m Course A 14 runners

Race 1 at Sha Tin on 2022-03-20 was Class 4 over 1200m, run on GOOD going. ETERNAL BLOOM, ridden by C Y Ho and trained by P F Yiu, won by SH, with ERIMO second and STARRY NIGHT third. The 4.4 favourite ERIMO finished 2nd.

Result

Official · 1.10.01
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 5 ETERNAL BLOOM 1.10.01 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) C Y Ho · P F Yiu 1 7.3 SH
2 4 ERIMO H1 J Moreira · J Size 3 4.4 SH
3 7 STARRY NIGHT Z Purton · D A Hayes 9 5.3 N
4 1 PROSECCO A Badel · W Y So 6 13.0 3/4
5 14 ISLAND SURPRISE TT1 M Chadwick · K L Man 4 8.9 1-1/4
6 9 FORTUNE CARRIER D Moor · C S Shum 5 8.5 1-1/4
7 11 IRON KING TT L Hewitson · C H Yip 2 19.0 2
8 6 RATTAN KINGDOM H1/TT R Maia · R Gibson 11 68.0 2-3/4
9 3 AURORA HERO B Shinn · P O'Sullivan 12 138.0 3-3/4
10 2 ELIGERE B K Teetan · Y S Tsui 10 7.7 4
11 13 THE GOOD DEAL B-/XB1/TT- A Hamelin · C W Chang 13 150.0 4-1/2
12 10 SUPER HIGHWAY CP1/TT1 H Bentley · F C Lor 7 8.4 4-3/4
13 12 SUPER HORNET SR/B1/TT M F Poon · D J Whyte 14 42.0 5-1/2
14 8 CIRCUIT SPLENDOR H/P1/XB1 H T Mo · T P Yung 8 112.0 8-3/4

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. ETERNAL BLOOM2. ERIMO+0.1L3. STARRY NIGHT+0.05L4. PROSECCO+0.75L5. ISLAND SURPRISE+1.25L6. FORTUNE CARRIER+1.25L7. IRON KING+2L8. RATTAN KINGDOM+2.75L9. AURORA HERO+3.75L10. ELIGERE+4L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2021-22
The model's top pick ERIMO (23.1%) finished 2nd — the winner ETERNAL BLOOM was rated #3. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 4 ERIMO 23.1% 4.33 2
2 7 STARRY NIGHT 19.3% 5.17 3
3 5 ETERNAL BLOOM 15.0% 6.67 1
4 9 FORTUNE CARRIER 8.9% 11.27 6
5 10 SUPER HIGHWAY 7.3% 13.78 12
6 14 ISLAND SURPRISE 7.1% 14.00 5
7 11 IRON KING 5.2% 19.13 7
8 2 ELIGERE 4.7% 21.16 10
9 1 PROSECCO 3.4% 29.62 4
10 6 RATTAN KINGDOM 2.3% 43.37 8
11 12 SUPER HORNET 1.6% 62.86 13
12 8 CIRCUIT SPLENDOR 0.7% 143.99 14
13 13 THE GOOD DEAL 0.7% 144.88 11
14 3 AURORA HERO 0.7% 150.08 9
ERIMOSTARRY NIGHTETERNAL BLOOM — wonFORTUNE CARRIERSUPER HIGHWAYISLAND SURPRISEIRON KINGELIGEREPROSECCORATTAN KINGDOMSUPER HORNETCIRCUIT SPLENDORTHE GOOD DEALAURORA HERO

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

5 73.5

PLACE

4 21

5 20.5

7 22.5

QUINELLA

4,5 232

QUINELLA PLACE

4,5 77.5

4,7 64

5,7 105

FORECAST

5,4 314

TIERCE

5,4,7 2,320

TRIO

4,5,7 447

FIRST 4

1,4,5,7 1,041

QUARTET

5,4,7,1 24,596

All pools (1 more)

3 PICK 1

A3

A1

A2 22