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Sha Tin · 2022-03-20 · 14:31

Race 4

Class 4 GOOD 1400m Course A 14 runners

Race 4 at Sha Tin on 2022-03-20 was Class 4 over 1400m, run on GOOD going. COUNTRY BOY, ridden by Z Purton and trained by J Size, won by SH, with AMAZING VICTORY second and CHEERY third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. The 3.4 favourite DURHAM STAR finished 6th.

Result

Official · 1.22.65
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 4 COUNTRY BOY Closed strongly H/P/TT 1.22.65 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) Z Purton · J Size 12 5.2 SH
2 8 AMAZING VICTORY Led early H K Teetan · L Ho 11 30.0 SH
3 6 CHEERY Closed strongly J Moreira · P F Yiu 10 5.4 1-1/4
4 13 RED BRICK FIGHTER B M F Poon · D J Hall 5 8.7 1-1/2
5 14 JIANGXI STAMINA Closed strongly B/TT V Borges · W Y So 6 35.0 1-1/2
6 12 DURHAM STAR Closed strongly XB A Badel · D J Whyte 9 3.4 2
7 10 MAXIMIZE HEART B M Chadwick · C H Yip 7 19.0 2-3/4
8 5 SPEED FAY FAY B C L Chau · T P Yung 4 7.6 2-3/4
9 1 LIFELINE VISION C Y Ho · D A Hayes 3 10.0 3-3/4
10 3 ANGELS HUNTER R Maia · P O'Sullivan 1 96.0 4-1/4
11 11 CIRCUIT ELITE Closed strongly TT H T Mo · A S Cruz 8 71.0 5
12 9 BEST FOR YOU B K C Leung · Y S Tsui 13 58.0 5-1/4
13 7 FANTASY B/XB A Hamelin · C W Chang 2 114.0 9
14 2 STAR OF YUEN LONG B/TT B Shinn · K L Man 14 25.0 10-3/4

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. COUNTRY BOY2. AMAZING VICTORY+0.1L3. CHEERY+1.25L4. RED BRICK FIGHTER+1.5L5. JIANGXI STAMINA+1.5L6. DURHAM STAR+2L7. MAXIMIZE HEART+2.75L8. SPEED FAY FAY+2.75L9. LIFELINE VISION+3.75L10. ANGELS HUNTER+4.25L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2021-22
The model's top pick CHEERY (18.6%) finished 3rd — the winner COUNTRY BOY was rated #2. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 6 CHEERY 18.6% 5.38 3
2 4 COUNTRY BOY 13.7% 7.31 1
3 12 DURHAM STAR 11.7% 8.53 6
4 1 LIFELINE VISION 11.0% 9.08 9
5 5 SPEED FAY FAY 8.3% 11.99 8
6 13 RED BRICK FIGHTER 7.1% 14.09 4
7 8 AMAZING VICTORY 6.7% 14.82 2
8 2 STAR OF YUEN LONG 5.7% 17.42 14
9 10 MAXIMIZE HEART 5.3% 18.86 7
10 14 JIANGXI STAMINA 3.3% 30.17 5
11 9 BEST FOR YOU 2.8% 36.10 12
12 7 FANTASY 2.5% 39.40 13
13 11 CIRCUIT ELITE 2.0% 50.70 11
14 3 ANGELS HUNTER 1.2% 84.73 10
CHEERYCOUNTRY BOY — wonDURHAM STARLIFELINE VISIONSPEED FAY FAYRED BRICK FIGHTERAMAZING VICTORYSTAR OF YUEN LONGMAXIMIZE HEARTJIANGXI STAMINABEST FOR YOUFANTASYCIRCUIT ELITEANGELS HUNTER

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

4 52

PLACE

4 19.5

6 19.5

8 66.5

QUINELLA

4,8 656.5

QUINELLA PLACE

4,6 64.5

4,8 193.5

6,8 177

FORECAST

4,8 1,162

TIERCE

4,8,6 5,243

TRIO

4,6,8 751

FIRST 4

4,6,8,13 3,192

QUARTET

4,8,6,13 88,006

All pools (3 more)

1ST DOUBLE TRIO

2,7,11/4,6,8 43,680

3 PICK 1

A1

A2 24

A3

3RD DOUBLE

7/4 369

7/8 207