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Sha Tin · 2022-03-20 · 16:43

Race 8

4YO GOOD 2000m Course A 14 runners

Race 8 at Sha Tin on 2022-03-20 was 4YO over 2000m, run on GOOD going. ROMANTIC WARRIOR, ridden by K Teetan and trained by C S Shum, won by HD, with CALIFORNIA SPANGLE second and MONEY CATCHER third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. The 2.4 favourite CALIFORNIA SPANGLE finished 2nd.

Result

Official · 2.00.23
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 2 ROMANTIC WARRIOR Closed strongly TT 2.00.23 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) K Teetan · C S Shum 8 3.7 HD
2 1 CALIFORNIA SPANGLE Led early TT Z Purton · A S Cruz 10 2.4 HD
3 8 MONEY CATCHER K C Leung · F C Lor 9 35.0 2-1/2
4 6 SENOR TOBA Closed strongly B1/TT J Moreira · C Fownes 3 4.8 4-1/4
5 3 THE IRISHMAN Closed strongly H/TT B Shinn · K W Lui 13 16.0 5
6 4 TURIN REDSUN Closed strongly SR/TT A Badel · D J Whyte 6 8.0 8
7 13 CROSSFORD Closed strongly H/P V Borges · J Size 1 52.0 10
8 7 FA FA Closed strongly TT H Bentley · F C Lor 4 93.0 10-1/2
9 14 NORDIC SKY Closed strongly SR/XB A Hamelin · A T Millard 14 235.0 11-3/4
10 11 CHAMPION DRAGON H/TT M Chadwick · A S Cruz 2 81.0 12-1/2
11 5 IMA SINGLE MAN B-/H/TT M F Poon · A S Cruz 7 84.0 13-1/2
12 12 MR ASCENDENCY B1 L Ferraris · P F Yiu 11 207.0 18-3/4
13 9 ROCKET SPADE XB/B1/TT C Y Ho · C Fownes 5 26.0 23
14 10 S J TOURBILLON R Maia · P F Yiu 12 93.0 27

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. ROMANTIC WARRIOR2. CALIFORNIA SPANGLE+0.2L3. MONEY CATCHER+2.5L4. SENOR TOBA+4.25L5. THE IRISHMAN+5L6. TURIN REDSUN+8L7. CROSSFORD+10L8. FA FA+10.5L9. NORDIC SKY+11.75L10. CHAMPION DRAGON+12.5L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2021-22
The model's top pick CALIFORNIA SPANGLE (24.6%) finished 2nd — the winner ROMANTIC WARRIOR was rated #3. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 1 CALIFORNIA SPANGLE 24.6% 4.07 2
2 6 SENOR TOBA 21.3% 4.69 4
3 2 ROMANTIC WARRIOR 16.9% 5.92 1
4 13 CROSSFORD 7.9% 12.72 7
5 4 TURIN REDSUN 7.3% 13.66 6
6 8 MONEY CATCHER 4.9% 20.39 3
7 11 CHAMPION DRAGON 4.6% 21.63 10
8 3 THE IRISHMAN 3.2% 31.37 5
9 5 IMA SINGLE MAN 3.0% 33.27 11
10 9 ROCKET SPADE 2.1% 48.43 13
11 7 FA FA 1.5% 66.16 8
12 14 NORDIC SKY 1.3% 77.81 9
13 10 S J TOURBILLON 0.8% 121.23 14
14 12 MR ASCENDENCY 0.6% 154.27 12
CALIFORNIA SPANGLESENOR TOBAROMANTIC WARRIOR — wonCROSSFORDTURIN REDSUNMONEY CATCHERCHAMPION DRAGONTHE IRISHMANIMA SINGLE MANROCKET SPADEFA FANORDIC SKYS J TOURBILLONMR ASCENDENCY

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

2 37.5

PLACE

1 12

2 14.5

8 56.5

QUINELLA

1,2 39.5

QUINELLA PLACE

1,2 21.5

1,8 115.5

2,8 134.5

FORECAST

2,1 97

TIERCE

2,1,8 1,141

TRIO

1,2,8 291

FIRST 4

1,2,6,8 283

QUARTET

2,1,8,6 5,900

All pools (3 more)

3 PICK 1

A3

A1 25.5

A2

7TH DOUBLE

7/1 34

7/2 162

WINNING TRAINER

B1

B2

B4 20.5

B3