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Sha Tin · 2022-03-20 · 14:01

Race 3

Class 4 GOOD 1600m Course A 14 runners

Race 3 at Sha Tin on 2022-03-20 was Class 4 over 1600m, run on GOOD going. TOYCOON, ridden by J Moreira and trained by P F Yiu, won by 3/4, with BEAUTY SPIRIT second and CORDYCEPS TWO third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. The 3.2 favourite STAR CONTACT finished 6th.

Result

Official · 1.35.30
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 7 TOYCOON Closed strongly CP 1.35.30 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) J Moreira · P F Yiu 13 4.5 3/4
2 2 BEAUTY SPIRIT Closed strongly B/TT A Badel · A S Cruz 9 6.3 3/4
3 11 CORDYCEPS TWO Closed strongly V Borges · C H Yip 10 18.0 1-1/4
4 10 SUNNY DELIGHT Closed strongly B/TT K Teetan · C S Shum 14 12.0 1-1/4
5 12 GREAT TREASURE Closed strongly H T Mo · Y S Tsui 4 55.0 2-1/2
6 5 STAR CONTACT B/TT B Shinn · D A Hayes 3 3.2 2-1/2
7 3 CITY LEGEND Closed strongly B/TT C L Chau · T P Yung 6 23.0 2-1/2
8 9 NICHOLSON RETURNS Closed strongly B M F Poon · D J Hall 12 34.0 3-1/4
9 1 AMAZING TEENS P-/H/TT Z Purton · J Size 7 14.0 3-1/4
10 14 VUKAN B/XB M Chadwick · P O'Sullivan 11 10.0 4-1/4
11 4 JOYFUL HEART B/TT K C Leung · F C Lor 8 25.0 5-3/4
12 6 BRIGHT KID Closed strongly B/XB H W Lai · W Y So 2 20.0 7-1/4
13 13 STRATHMORETOO B1 L Hewitson · A T Millard 5 37.0 8-1/4
14 8 EMBARKED Led early B/TT C Y Ho · C Fownes 1 50.0 14-1/4

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. TOYCOON2. BEAUTY SPIRIT+0.75L3. CORDYCEPS TWO+1.25L4. SUNNY DELIGHT+1.25L5. GREAT TREASURE+2.5L6. STAR CONTACT+2.5L7. CITY LEGEND+2.5L8. NICHOLSON RETURNS+3.25L9. AMAZING TEENS+3.25L10. VUKAN+4.25L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2021-22
The model's top pick AMAZING TEENS (18.7%) finished 9th — the winner TOYCOON was rated #3. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 1 AMAZING TEENS 18.7% 5.36 9
2 5 STAR CONTACT 18.5% 5.40 6
3 7 TOYCOON 17.8% 5.61 1
4 10 SUNNY DELIGHT 11.4% 8.78 4
5 8 EMBARKED 5.3% 18.84 14
6 14 VUKAN 5.1% 19.69 10
7 3 CITY LEGEND 4.5% 22.03 7
8 4 JOYFUL HEART 4.3% 23.50 11
9 2 BEAUTY SPIRIT 4.0% 24.94 2
10 11 CORDYCEPS TWO 3.4% 29.22 3
11 9 NICHOLSON RETURNS 2.6% 38.14 8
12 13 STRATHMORETOO 2.2% 45.15 13
13 12 GREAT TREASURE 1.4% 69.96 5
14 6 BRIGHT KID 0.7% 143.71 12
AMAZING TEENSSTAR CONTACTTOYCOON — wonSUNNY DELIGHTEMBARKEDVUKANCITY LEGENDJOYFUL HEARTBEAUTY SPIRITCORDYCEPS TWONICHOLSON RETURNSSTRATHMORETOOGREAT TREASUREBRIGHT KID

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

7 45.5

PLACE

2 24.5

7 18.5

11 51

QUINELLA

2,7 208

QUINELLA PLACE

2,7 78.5

2,11 186.5

7,11 160

FORECAST

7,2 478

TIERCE

7,2,11 5,541

TRIO

2,7,11 882

FIRST 4

2,7,10,11 2,482

QUARTET

7,2,11,10 43,417

All pools (2 more)

2ND DOUBLE

1/2 57.5

1/7 356.5

3 PICK 1

A2 26

A3

A1