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Sha Tin · 2022-03-20 · 17:53

Race 10

Class 2 GOOD 1200m Course A 14 runners

Race 10 at Sha Tin on 2022-03-20 was Class 2 over 1200m, run on GOOD going. BLAZE WARRIOR, ridden by J Moreira and trained by J Size, won by 1-3/4, with KEEP YOU WARM second and NAVAS TWO third. Victory came as the 2.9 favourite.

Result

Official · 1.08.94
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 2 BLAZE WARRIOR B/TT 1.08.94 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) J Moreira · J Size 2 2.9 1-3/4
2 7 KEEP YOU WARM B/XB A Badel · K W Lui 9 14.0 1-3/4
3 12 NAVAS TWO CP R Maia · R Gibson 14 5.5 2-1/4
4 10 HARMONY N BLESSED BO/XB/TT C L Chau · D A Hayes 8 72.0 2-1/2
5 6 HONG KONG WIN V Borges · J Size 1 63.0 2-3/4
6 13 WINNER METHOD TT M Chadwick · C S Shum 5 16.0 3-1/4
7 9 GOOD LUCK FRIEND CP K C Leung · P F Yiu 10 13.0 3-1/2
8 11 LUCKY WITH YOU K Teetan · D A Hayes 12 4.4 3-1/2
9 1 WINNING DREAMER TT- C Y Ho · F C Lor 13 51.0 4
10 5 STOLTZ CP Z Purton · K W Lui 7 8.2 4-1/2
11 4 CALIFORNIA RAD B/TT H Bentley · A S Cruz 11 37.0 5-1/2
12 14 ASTROLOGER SR1 M L Yeung · D J Whyte 3 22.0 6-1/4
13 3 HIGHLY PROACTIVE H/P/TT H W Lai · C W Chang 6 165.0 6-1/2
14 8 CLASSIC UNICORN TT K H Chan · W Y So 4 232.0 8-3/4

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. BLAZE WARRIOR2. KEEP YOU WARM+1.75L3. NAVAS TWO+2.25L4. HARMONY N BLESSED+2.5L5. HONG KONG WIN+2.75L6. WINNER METHOD+3.25L7. GOOD LUCK FRIEND+3.5L8. LUCKY WITH YOU+3.5L9. WINNING DREAMER+4L10. STOLTZ+4.5L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2021-22
The model's top pick STOLTZ (24.6%) finished 10th — the winner BLAZE WARRIOR was rated #3. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 5 STOLTZ 24.6% 4.07 10
2 12 NAVAS TWO 19.3% 5.19 3
3 2 BLAZE WARRIOR 18.0% 5.57 1
4 11 LUCKY WITH YOU 9.2% 10.81 8
5 14 ASTROLOGER 5.5% 18.27 12
6 10 HARMONY N BLESSED 4.2% 23.68 4
7 9 GOOD LUCK FRIEND 3.5% 28.49 7
8 1 WINNING DREAMER 3.3% 30.67 9
9 13 WINNER METHOD 3.2% 30.85 6
10 7 KEEP YOU WARM 2.7% 37.44 2
11 4 CALIFORNIA RAD 2.3% 42.76 11
12 6 HONG KONG WIN 2.1% 48.49 5
13 8 CLASSIC UNICORN 1.1% 87.71 14
14 3 HIGHLY PROACTIVE 1.0% 96.45 13
STOLTZNAVAS TWOBLAZE WARRIOR — wonLUCKY WITH YOUASTROLOGERHARMONY N BLESSEDGOOD LUCK FRIENDWINNING DREAMERWINNER METHODKEEP YOU WARMCALIFORNIA RADHONG KONG WINCLASSIC UNICORNHIGHLY PROACTIVE

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

2 29

PLACE

2 14

7 39

12 20

QUINELLA

2,7 224

QUINELLA PLACE

2,7 78

2,12 44.5

7,12 165

FORECAST

2,7 296

TIERCE

2,7,12 2,368

TRIO

2,7,12 537

FIRST 4

2,7,10,12 8,138

QUARTET

2,7,12,10 90,626

All pools (5 more)

3 PICK 1

A2

A1 19

A3

3RD DOUBLE TRIO

1,5,11/2,7,12 17,537

9TH DOUBLE

11/2 99

11/7 167.5

SIX UP

3,4/7,8/6,7/1,2/5,11/2,7 532

3/7/7/2/11/2 16,357

2 [Z Purton]

TREBLE

2/11/2 610

2/11/7 806