Sha Tin · 2022-03-27 · 12:46
Race 1
Race 1 at Sha Tin on 2022-03-27 was Class 3 over 1000m, run on GOOD going. FLYING SEASON, ridden by C L Chau and trained by K L Man, won by 4, with FORTE second and EQUALETTA BLITZ third. Victory came as the 1.6 favourite.
Result
| Pos | No. | Horse | Jockey | Trainer | Draw | Odds | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 5 | FLYING SEASON B/TT 0.56.19 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) C L Chau · K L Man | C L Chau | K L Man | 4 | 1.6 | 4 |
| 2 | 6 | FORTE XB/TT K Teetan · D A Hayes | K Teetan | D A Hayes | 1 | 4.4 | 4 |
| 3 | 2 | EQUALETTA BLITZ B L Hewitson · D J Whyte | L Hewitson | D J Whyte | 6 | 20.0 | 4 |
| 4 | 7 | ROYAL PRIDE V/TT A Badel · C Fownes | A Badel | C Fownes | 2 | 22.0 | 4-1/4 |
| 5 | 1 | ESCAPE ROUTE E-/H1 Z Purton · J Size | Z Purton | J Size | 5 | 20.0 | 6-1/4 |
| 6 | 3 | TRUST ME B/H K C Leung · C H Yip | K C Leung | C H Yip | 3 | 7.5 | 10-3/4 |
| 7 | 4 | UNITED WE STAND B/TT K H Chan · P O'Sullivan | K H Chan | P O'Sullivan | 7 | 10.0 | 11-3/4 |
Race shape
Model ratings
| Rank | No. | Horse | Win % | Rated price | Pos |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 5 | FLYING SEASON | 44.7% | 2.24 | 1 |
| 2 | 6 | FORTE | 18.3% | 5.45 | 2 |
| 3 | 7 | ROYAL PRIDE | 10.4% | 9.64 | 4 |
| 4 | 4 | UNITED WE STAND | 9.9% | 10.09 | 7 |
| 5 | 3 | TRUST ME | 8.6% | 11.58 | 6 |
| 6 | 1 | ESCAPE ROUTE | 5.7% | 17.44 | 5 |
| 7 | 2 | EQUALETTA BLITZ | 2.3% | 43.56 | 3 |
Model vs market
Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.
Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →
Dividends
WIN
5 16.5
PLACE
2 33
5 10.1
6 14
QUINELLA
5,6 25.5
QUINELLA PLACE
2,5 49
2,6 69
5,6 13.5
FORECAST
5,6 35
TIERCE
5,6,2 315
TRIO
2,5,6 87
FIRST 4
2,5,6,7 224
QUARTET
5,6,2,7 1,679
All pools (1 more)
3 PICK 1
A1 16.5
A3 —
A2 —