Sha Tin · 2022-03-27 · 15:11

Race 5

Class 3 GOOD 1200m Course A+3 10 runners

Race 5 at Sha Tin on 2022-03-27 was Class 3 over 1200m, run on GOOD going. CAMPIONE, ridden by L Ferraris and trained by A S Cruz, won by SH, with BEAUTY MISSION second and WIND N GRASS third. The 2.4 favourite BEAUTY MISSION finished 2nd.

Result

Official · 1.08.94

Pos	No.	Horse	Jockey	Trainer	Draw	Weight	Odds	Margin
1	2	CAMPIONE TT 1.08.94 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) L Ferraris · A S Cruz	L Ferraris	A S Cruz	4	132 lb	8.5	SH
2	6	BEAUTY MISSION SR J Moreira · F C Lor	J Moreira	F C Lor	1	117 lb	2.4	SH
3	1	WIND N GRASS TT A Hamelin · C W Chang	A Hamelin	C W Chang	2	133 lb	50.0	3-3/4
4	5	KUMASI TT1 Z Purton · K W Lui	Z Purton	K W Lui	10	120 lb	4.2	3-3/4
5	8	MAJESTIC KNIGHT L Hewitson · D J Whyte	L Hewitson	D J Whyte	9	117 lb	12.0	4
6	9	PHOENIX LIGHT M F Poon · C H Yip	M F Poon	C H Yip	3	115 lb	48.0	4-1/4
7	10	PROUD DRAGON A Badel · C Fownes	A Badel	C Fownes	8	117 lb	4.0	5-1/4
8	3	CALL ME TEDDY H Bentley · C W Chang	H Bentley	C W Chang	5	123 lb	49.0	5-1/2
9	4	POWER KOEPP E V Borges · J Size	V Borges	J Size	6	119 lb	26.0	5-3/4
10	7	EASY SNIP M L Yeung · T P Yung	M L Yeung	T P Yung	7	117 lb	81.0	8-1/2

Race shape

Beaten lengths

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2021-22

The model's top pick BEAUTY MISSION (37.9%) finished 2nd — the winner CAMPIONE was rated #4. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.

Rank	No.	Horse	Win %	Rated price	Pos	Final odds
1	6	BEAUTY MISSION	37.9%	2.64	2	2.4
2	5	KUMASI	22.6%	4.43	4	4.2
3	10	PROUD DRAGON	10.8%	9.24	7	4.0
4	2	CAMPIONE	9.1%	11.03	1	8.5
5	3	CALL ME TEDDY	5.0%	20.00	8	49.0
6	4	POWER KOEPP	4.5%	22.10	9	26.0
7	9	PHOENIX LIGHT	4.5%	22.23	6	48.0
8	8	MAJESTIC KNIGHT	3.2%	31.65	5	12.0
9	1	WIND N GRASS	1.7%	57.24	3	50.0
10	7	EASY SNIP	0.7%	148.46	10	81.0

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

2 85.5

PLACE

1 81.5

2 22.5

6 10.5

QUINELLA

2,6 89.5

QUINELLA PLACE

1,2 325

1,6 151.5

2,6 37

FORECAST

2,6 217

TIERCE

2,6,1 4,447

TRIO

1,2,6 808

FIRST 4

1,2,5,6 592

QUARTET

2,6,1,5 17,529

All pools (2 more)

3 PICK 1

A3 —

A2 22.5

A1 —

4TH DOUBLE

4/2 223

4/6 13

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