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Sha Tin · 2022-03-27 · 17:18

Race 9

Class 4 GOOD 1400m Course A+3 14 runners

Race 9 at Sha Tin on 2022-03-27 was Class 4 over 1400m, run on GOOD going. MY ECSTATIC, ridden by K C Leung and trained by F C Lor, won by 2, with MY INTELLIGENT second and ORIENTAL SMOKE third. The winner led throughout. The 1.5 favourite ORIENTAL SMOKE finished 3rd.

Result

Official · 1.22.24
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 4 MY ECSTATIC Wire to wire TT 1.22.24 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) K C Leung · F C Lor 3 17.0 2
2 14 MY INTELLIGENT Closed strongly TT1 H T Mo · L Ho 1 25.0 2
3 1 ORIENTAL SMOKE Closed strongly B/TT1 Z Purton · D A Hayes 4 1.5 3-1/4
4 11 SIXTH GENERATION Closed strongly B Shinn · C H Yip 7 21.0 4-1/4
5 13 LADY FIRST Closed strongly CP/H/XB/TT M F Poon · A S Cruz 9 14.0 4-1/2
6 3 HANDSOME TWELVE Closed strongly B- C L Chau · T P Yung 13 25.0 4-1/2
7 10 KING OF THE COURT Closed strongly CP1 C Y Ho · W Y So 11 31.0 4-1/2
8 9 SMILING CITY SR-/V1 M L Yeung · D J Whyte 5 43.0 6-1/2
9 12 CASA LEGEND TT V Borges · C S Shum 14 63.0 6-1/2
10 8 PAINTER Closed strongly K Teetan · Y S Tsui 10 25.0 7
11 5 ACCELERANDO Closed strongly J Moreira · J Size 8 27.0 8-1/4
12 7 MEGA BONUS XB M Chadwick · P F Yiu 6 8.5 10-1/2
13 6 HAPPY MATADOR B/TT R Maia · R Gibson 12 60.0 11-1/4
14 2 BLISSFUL LIFE TT A Badel · K L Man 2 89.0 19

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. MY ECSTATIC2. MY INTELLIGENT+2L3. ORIENTAL SMOKE+3.25L4. SIXTH GENERATION+4.25L5. LADY FIRST+4.5L6. HANDSOME TWELVE+4.5L7. KING OF THE COURT+4.5L8. SMILING CITY+6.5L9. CASA LEGEND+6.5L10. PAINTER+7L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2021-22
The model's top pick ORIENTAL SMOKE (35.7%) finished 3rd — the winner MY ECSTATIC was rated #4. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 1 ORIENTAL SMOKE 35.7% 2.80 3
2 5 ACCELERANDO 23.0% 4.35 11
3 7 MEGA BONUS 6.8% 14.72 12
4 4 MY ECSTATIC 6.8% 14.76 1
5 11 SIXTH GENERATION 3.7% 26.82 4
6 3 HANDSOME TWELVE 3.7% 27.05 6
7 10 KING OF THE COURT 3.5% 28.33 7
8 14 MY INTELLIGENT 3.3% 30.40 2
9 12 CASA LEGEND 3.2% 31.06 9
10 13 LADY FIRST 2.8% 36.11 5
11 9 SMILING CITY 2.3% 43.39 8
12 8 PAINTER 2.1% 46.54 10
13 6 HAPPY MATADOR 1.8% 54.25 13
14 2 BLISSFUL LIFE 1.2% 85.17 14
ORIENTAL SMOKEACCELERANDOMEGA BONUSMY ECSTATIC — wonSIXTH GENERATIONHANDSOME TWELVEKING OF THE COURTMY INTELLIGENTCASA LEGENDLADY FIRSTSMILING CITYPAINTERHAPPY MATADORBLISSFUL LIFE

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

4 174.5

PLACE

1 10.5

4 31.5

14 43.5

QUINELLA

4,14 1,374.5

QUINELLA PLACE

1,4 47.5

1,14 62.5

4,14 273.5

FORECAST

4,14 2,746

TIERCE

4,14,1 6,649

TRIO

1,4,14 458

FIRST 4

1,4,11,14 1,323

QUARTET

4,14,1,11 78,244

All pools (2 more)

3 PICK 1

A1

A2 70

A3

8TH DOUBLE

7/4 5,466

7/14 2,114.5