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Sha Tin · 2022-03-27 · 17:18

Race 9

Class 4 GOOD 1400m Course A+3 14 runners

Result

Official · 1.22.24
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 0 MY ECSTATIC Wire to wire TT 1.22.24 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) K C Leung · F C Lor 3 17.0 2
2 0 MY INTELLIGENT Closed strongly TT1 H T Mo · L Ho 1 25.0 2
3 0 ORIENTAL SMOKE Closed strongly B/TT1 Z Purton · D A Hayes 4 1.5 3-1/4
4 0 SIXTH GENERATION Closed strongly B Shinn · C H Yip 7 21.0 4-1/4
5 0 LADY FIRST Closed strongly CP/H/XB/TT M F Poon · A S Cruz 9 14.0 4-1/2
6 0 HANDSOME TWELVE Closed strongly B- C L Chau · T P Yung 13 25.0 4-1/2
7 0 KING OF THE COURT Closed strongly CP1 C Y Ho · W Y So 11 31.0 4-1/2
8 0 SMILING CITY SR-/V1 M L Yeung · D J Whyte 5 43.0 6-1/2
9 0 CASA LEGEND TT V Borges · C S Shum 14 63.0 6-1/2
10 0 PAINTER Closed strongly K Teetan · Y S Tsui 10 25.0 7
11 0 ACCELERANDO Closed strongly J Moreira · J Size 8 27.0 8-1/4
12 0 MEGA BONUS XB M Chadwick · P F Yiu 6 8.5 10-1/2
13 0 HAPPY MATADOR B/TT R Maia · R Gibson 12 60.0 11-1/4
14 0 BLISSFUL LIFE TT A Badel · K L Man 2 89.0 19

This site does not show odds as they change: the odds here are final prices after a race, or overnight prices before it.

Race 9 at Sha Tin on 2022-03-27 was Class 4 over 1400m, run on GOOD going. MY ECSTATIC, ridden by K C Leung and trained by F C Lor, won by 2, with MY INTELLIGENT second and ORIENTAL SMOKE third. The winner led throughout. The 1.5 favourite ORIENTAL SMOKE finished 3rd.

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. MY ECSTATIC—2. MY INTELLIGENT+2L3. ORIENTAL SMOKE+3.25L4. SIXTH GENERATION+4.25L5. LADY FIRST+4.5L6. HANDSOME TWELVE+4.5L7. KING OF THE COURT+4.5L8. SMILING CITY+6.5L9. CASA LEGEND+6.5L10. PAINTER+7L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2021-22
The model's top pick ORIENTAL SMOKE (35.7%) finished 3rd — the winner MY ECSTATIC was rated #4. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 0 ORIENTAL SMOKE 35.7% 2.80 3
2 0 ACCELERANDO 23.0% 4.35 11
3 0 MEGA BONUS 6.8% 14.72 12
4 0 MY ECSTATIC 6.8% 14.76 1
5 0 SIXTH GENERATION 3.7% 26.82 4
6 0 HANDSOME TWELVE 3.7% 27.05 6
7 0 KING OF THE COURT 3.5% 28.33 7
8 0 MY INTELLIGENT 3.3% 30.40 2
9 0 CASA LEGEND 3.2% 31.06 9
10 0 LADY FIRST 2.8% 36.11 5
11 0 SMILING CITY 2.3% 43.39 8
12 0 PAINTER 2.1% 46.54 10
13 0 HAPPY MATADOR 1.8% 54.25 13
14 0 BLISSFUL LIFE 1.2% 85.17 14
ORIENTAL SMOKEACCELERANDOMEGA BONUSMY ECSTATIC — wonSIXTH GENERATIONHANDSOME TWELVEKING OF THE COURTMY INTELLIGENTCASA LEGENDLADY FIRSTSMILING CITYPAINTERHAPPY MATADORBLISSFUL LIFE

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

4 174.5

PLACE

1 10.5

4 31.5

14 43.5

QUINELLA

4,14 1,374.5

QUINELLA PLACE

1,4 47.5

1,14 62.5

4,14 273.5

FORECAST

4,14 2,746

TIERCE

4,14,1 6,649

TRIO

1,4,14 458

FIRST 4

1,4,11,14 1,323

QUARTET

4,14,1,11 78,244

All pools (2 more)

3 PICK 1

A3 —

A2 70

A1 —

8TH DOUBLE

7/4 5,466

7/14 2,114.5