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Sha Tin · 2022-03-27 · 17:53

Race 10

Class 3 GOOD 1400m Course A+3 11 runners

Race 10 at Sha Tin on 2022-03-27 was Class 3 over 1400m, run on GOOD going. BEAUTY LIVE, ridden by J Moreira and trained by F C Lor, won by N, with SHINING GEM second and RIGHTEOUS DOCTRINE third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. Victory came as the 2.3 favourite.

Result

Official · 1.22.59
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 4 BEAUTY LIVE Closed strongly TT 1.22.59 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) J Moreira · F C Lor 9 2.3 N
2 3 SHINING GEM Closed strongly B K C Leung · P F Yiu 8 29.0 N
3 11 RIGHTEOUS DOCTRINE Closed strongly B/XB M L Yeung · C W Chang 10 45.0 1-1/2
4 1 KILINDINI Led early TT C L Chau · A T Millard 7 47.0 1-3/4
5 6 SEASONS BLISS Closed strongly B C Y Ho · K H Ting 5 9.4 1-3/4
6 2 CIRCUIT STELLAR Closed strongly TT Z Purton · A S Cruz 1 3.7 2
7 7 RACING FIGHTER TT H Bentley · C H Yip 3 100.0 2
8 5 DECRYPT TT A Hamelin · D A Hayes 2 26.0 2-3/4
9 10 BRILLIANT WAY H/P/TT V Borges · J Size 4 3.9 3
10 8 ACE ONE B/XB A Badel · D J Whyte 6 44.0 5-1/2
11 9 NOWITZKI L Hewitson · T P Yung 11 205.0 7-3/4

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. BEAUTY LIVE2. SHINING GEM+0.05L3. RIGHTEOUS DOCTRINE+1.5L4. KILINDINI+1.75L5. SEASONS BLISS+1.75L6. CIRCUIT STELLAR+2L7. RACING FIGHTER+2L8. DECRYPT+2.75L9. BRILLIANT WAY+3L10. ACE ONE+5.5L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2021-22
The model's top pick BEAUTY LIVE (45.2%) won this race. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 4 BEAUTY LIVE 45.2% 2.21 1
2 2 CIRCUIT STELLAR 19.9% 5.02 6
3 10 BRILLIANT WAY 11.5% 8.68 9
4 6 SEASONS BLISS 6.3% 15.88 5
5 1 KILINDINI 4.6% 21.77 4
6 5 DECRYPT 3.1% 32.12 8
7 8 ACE ONE 2.5% 40.48 10
8 11 RIGHTEOUS DOCTRINE 2.4% 41.03 3
9 3 SHINING GEM 2.4% 41.28 2
10 7 RACING FIGHTER 1.8% 56.60 7
11 9 NOWITZKI 0.3% 354.57 11
BEAUTY LIVE — wonCIRCUIT STELLARBRILLIANT WAYSEASONS BLISSKILINDINIDECRYPTACE ONERIGHTEOUS DOCTRINESHINING GEMRACING FIGHTERNOWITZKI

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

4 23.5

PLACE

3 56

4 13

11 64

QUINELLA

3,4 318.5

QUINELLA PLACE

3,4 98.5

3,11 416.5

4,11 142

FORECAST

4,3 418

TIERCE

4,3,11 4,770

TRIO

3,4,11 1,971

FIRST 4

1,3,4,11 4,731

QUARTET

4,3,11,1 51,056

All pools (5 more)

3 PICK 1

A3

A2

A1 14.5

3RD DOUBLE TRIO

1,4,14/3,4,11 58,684

9TH DOUBLE

4/3 391.5

4/4 429

SIX UP

2/5/5/7/4/4 2,947,289

2,6/5,9/2,5/7,10/4,14/3,4 32,418

1 [J Moreira]

TREBLE

7/4/3 15,789

7/4/4 11,973