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Sha Tin · 2022-03-27 · 15:41

Race 6

Class 4 GOOD 1200m Course A+3 14 runners

Race 6 at Sha Tin on 2022-03-27 was Class 4 over 1200m, run on GOOD going. FUN N GLORY, ridden by Z Purton and trained by W Y So, won by 1-1/4, with CALIFORNIA VANES second and NOBLE BOYZ third. The 1.7 favourite COUNTRY TREASURE finished 13th.

Result

Official · 1.10.04
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 5 FUN N GLORY TT 1.10.04 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) Z Purton · W Y So 13 4.3 1-1/4
2 9 CALIFORNIA VANES CP-/B1/TT L Ferraris · A S Cruz 6 40.0 1-1/4
3 14 NOBLE BOYZ SR-/B1/TT K Teetan · D J Whyte 5 9.4 1-3/4
4 10 AUGUST MOON BO M Chadwick · P O'Sullivan 9 16.0 3-1/4
5 12 ROYAL AGILITY B/TT L Hewitson · Y S Tsui 3 52.0 3-1/2
6 2 BIRDSVILLE B Shinn · D A Hayes 1 13.0 3-3/4
7 6 GET THE MONIES C Y Ho · K W Lui 11 158.0 4-1/2
8 8 FIRE BALL B/TT M F Poon · C H Yip 8 21.0 4-1/2
9 7 POLARIS WINNER CP1 R Maia · A T Millard 12 37.0 5-1/4
10 1 MOMENTUM GALAXY B K C Leung · K H Ting 7 75.0 5-1/4
11 4 DAZZLING FELLOW TT1 H Bentley · D J Hall 2 86.0 5-1/2
12 13 CABLE SPEED P H T Mo · T P Yung 10 222.0 5-3/4
13 3 COUNTRY TREASURE J Moreira · J Size 4 1.7 7
14 11 FELIX THE KING CP M L Yeung · C W Chang 14 264.0 15-3/4

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. FUN N GLORY2. CALIFORNIA VANES+1.25L3. NOBLE BOYZ+1.75L4. AUGUST MOON+3.25L5. ROYAL AGILITY+3.5L6. BIRDSVILLE+3.75L7. GET THE MONIES+4.5L8. FIRE BALL+4.5L9. POLARIS WINNER+5.25L10. MOMENTUM GALAXY+5.25L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2021-22
The model's top pick COUNTRY TREASURE (27.7%) finished 13th — the winner FUN N GLORY was rated #2. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 3 COUNTRY TREASURE 27.7% 3.61 13
2 5 FUN N GLORY 21.8% 4.60 1
3 14 NOBLE BOYZ 14.8% 6.74 3
4 10 AUGUST MOON 8.2% 12.14 4
5 2 BIRDSVILLE 5.7% 17.67 6
6 4 DAZZLING FELLOW 4.2% 23.89 11
7 9 CALIFORNIA VANES 4.1% 24.57 2
8 7 POLARIS WINNER 3.9% 25.44 9
9 8 FIRE BALL 3.1% 31.93 8
10 1 MOMENTUM GALAXY 2.1% 47.42 10
11 12 ROYAL AGILITY 1.5% 65.02 5
12 6 GET THE MONIES 1.3% 75.94 7
13 13 CABLE SPEED 1.0% 101.74 12
14 11 FELIX THE KING 0.5% 200.45 14
COUNTRY TREASUREFUN N GLORY — wonNOBLE BOYZAUGUST MOONBIRDSVILLEDAZZLING FELLOWCALIFORNIA VANESPOLARIS WINNERFIRE BALLMOMENTUM GALAXYROYAL AGILITYGET THE MONIESCABLE SPEEDFELIX THE KING

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

5 43

PLACE

5 14

9 71

14 25.5

QUINELLA

5,9 915.5

QUINELLA PLACE

5,9 167

5,14 54

9,14 351

FORECAST

5,9 1,433

TIERCE

5,9,14 9,319

TRIO

5,9,14 1,994

FIRST 4

5,9,10,14 3,033

QUARTET

5,9,14,10 59,771

All pools (4 more)

3 PICK 1

A3

A2

A1 12

5TH DOUBLE

2/5 308.5

2/9 219.5

TRIPLE TRIO

4,5,9/1,2,6/5,9,14 1,998,854

TRIPLE TRIO (CONSOLATION)

4,5,9/1,2,6/Any Combination 5,830