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Sha Tin · 2022-03-27 · 13:16

Race 2

Class 5 GOOD 1600m Course A+3 14 runners

Race 2 at Sha Tin on 2022-03-27 was Class 5 over 1600m, run on GOOD going. GO GO SIXTEEN, ridden by B Shinn and trained by K W Lui, won by N, with DAILY CHARM second and MISSION SMART third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. The 2.4 favourite LIGHT MY DAY finished 8th.

Result

Official · 1.35.84
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 8 GO GO SIXTEEN Closed strongly TT 1.35.84 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) B Shinn · K W Lui 7 6.7 N
2 2 DAILY CHARM Closed strongly B/TT M Chadwick · C S Shum 10 12.0 N
3 9 MISSION SMART B-/CP2 K C Leung · F C Lor 5 9.1 1
4 12 SPEEDY DRAGON Closed strongly B-/TT A Badel · K L Man 11 15.0 1-1/2
5 5 BRAVE POWER Closed strongly B/TT H Bentley · A S Cruz 14 16.0 2-1/4
6 13 SPLENDID TIMING B M L Yeung · Y S Tsui 4 81.0 2-1/2
7 7 DAILY BEAUTY TT J Moreira · C Fownes 2 8.9 2-1/2
8 1 LIGHT MY DAY Led early B/TT Z Purton · C H Yip 3 2.4 4
9 3 GOLDEN FOUR Closed strongly B- L Hewitson · C W Chang 12 28.0 4
10 14 AEROSONIC H/PC/XB H T Mo · C W Chang 6 31.0 4
11 6 WINWIN THIRTYTHREE Closed strongly V A Hamelin · P F Yiu 9 21.0 4-1/4
12 4 JOY MASTER B/TT K Teetan · W Y So 13 19.0 5-3/4
13 10 SCHOLAR B/TT L Ferraris · A T Millard 8 26.0 6-1/4
14 11 SINCERE BOY M F Poon · L Ho 1 94.0 7-1/2
0 KWAI CHUNG ELITE D Moor · K H Ting

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. GO GO SIXTEEN2. DAILY CHARM+0.05L3. MISSION SMART+1L4. SPEEDY DRAGON+1.5L5. BRAVE POWER+2.25L6. SPLENDID TIMING+2.5L7. DAILY BEAUTY+2.5L8. LIGHT MY DAY+4L9. GOLDEN FOUR+4L10. AEROSONIC+4L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2021-22
The model's top pick LIGHT MY DAY (28.1%) finished 8th — the winner GO GO SIXTEEN was rated #5. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 1 LIGHT MY DAY 28.1% 3.56 8
2 7 DAILY BEAUTY 25.6% 3.90 7
3 2 DAILY CHARM 8.5% 11.71 2
4 9 MISSION SMART 6.9% 14.43 3
5 8 GO GO SIXTEEN 5.3% 18.92 1
6 6 WINWIN THIRTYTHREE 4.5% 22.29 11
7 12 SPEEDY DRAGON 4.5% 22.37 4
8 4 JOY MASTER 4.3% 23.36 12
9 5 BRAVE POWER 3.3% 30.49 5
10 11 SINCERE BOY 2.5% 39.81 14
11 13 SPLENDID TIMING 1.8% 54.21 6
12 3 GOLDEN FOUR 1.8% 54.34 9
13 14 AEROSONIC 1.6% 63.41 10
14 10 SCHOLAR 1.2% 82.42 13
LIGHT MY DAYDAILY BEAUTYDAILY CHARMMISSION SMARTGO GO SIXTEEN — wonWINWIN THIRTYTHREESPEEDY DRAGONJOY MASTERBRAVE POWERSINCERE BOYSPLENDID TIMINGGOLDEN FOURAEROSONICSCHOLAR

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

8 67.5

PLACE

2 30.5

8 25

9 27

QUINELLA

2,8 330.5

QUINELLA PLACE

2,8 105.5

2,9 116

8,9 89

FORECAST

8,2 745

TIERCE

8,2,9 4,069

TRIO

2,8,9 727

FIRST 4

2,8,9,12 2,984

QUARTET

8,2,9,12 60,812

All pools (2 more)

1ST DOUBLE

5/2 28.5

5/8 172

3 PICK 1

A1 18

A2

A3