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Sha Tin · 2022-04-10 · 15:36

Race 6

Class 4 GOOD 1400m Course C 14 runners

Race 6 at Sha Tin on 2022-04-10 was Class 4 over 1400m, run on GOOD going. MY INTELLIGENT, ridden by K Teetan and trained by L Ho, won by 1/2, with ERIMO second and OSCAR GLORY third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. The 2.9 favourite OSCAR GLORY finished 3rd.

Result

Official · 1.21.43
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 13 MY INTELLIGENT Closed strongly TT 1.21.43 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) K Teetan · L Ho 10 7.7 1/2
2 3 ERIMO Closed strongly H J Moreira · J Size 11 3.3 1/2
3 1 OSCAR GLORY Closed strongly CP Z Purton · F C Lor 5 2.9 1/2
4 6 VOYAGE STAR V/TT A Badel · T P Yung 4 12.0 3/4
5 10 CASA LEGEND Closed strongly TT H Bentley · C S Shum 3 32.0 1-1/4
6 8 ALL RICHES Led early CP K C Leung · P F Yiu 13 20.0 2
7 7 RATTAN KINGDOM H/TT R Maia · R Gibson 2 31.0 2
8 12 APEX TOP B V Borges · A T Millard 7 14.0 2
9 5 STAR CONTACT Closed strongly B/TT B Shinn · D A Hayes 12 12.0 4
10 11 BEST FOR YOU Closed strongly B C Y Ho · Y S Tsui 6 37.0 6-3/4
11 14 RED BRICK FIGHTER Closed strongly B M F Poon · D J Hall 14 22.0 7-1/4
12 2 ANGELS HUNTER Closed strongly B1 M Chadwick · P O'Sullivan 8 115.0 7-1/4
13 9 GREEN ENVY V/TT L Currie · C Fownes 1 75.0 7-3/4
14 4 WAR EAGLE B/TT C L Chau · K H Ting 9 187.0 26

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. MY INTELLIGENT2. ERIMO+0.5L3. OSCAR GLORY+0.5L4. VOYAGE STAR+0.75L5. CASA LEGEND+1.25L6. ALL RICHES+2L7. RATTAN KINGDOM+2L8. APEX TOP+2L9. STAR CONTACT+4L10. BEST FOR YOU+6.75L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2021-22
The model's top pick ERIMO (29.5%) finished 2nd — the winner MY INTELLIGENT was rated #5. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 3 ERIMO 29.5% 3.39 2
2 1 OSCAR GLORY 25.0% 4.00 3
3 5 STAR CONTACT 10.8% 9.27 9
4 6 VOYAGE STAR 6.9% 14.39 4
5 13 MY INTELLIGENT 5.7% 17.59 1
6 12 APEX TOP 5.3% 18.92 8
7 14 RED BRICK FIGHTER 3.8% 26.08 11
8 8 ALL RICHES 3.5% 28.46 6
9 7 RATTAN KINGDOM 2.6% 37.90 7
10 9 GREEN ENVY 2.2% 45.49 13
11 11 BEST FOR YOU 1.4% 72.22 10
12 10 CASA LEGEND 1.4% 72.66 5
13 2 ANGELS HUNTER 1.0% 99.09 12
14 4 WAR EAGLE 0.8% 122.81 14
ERIMOOSCAR GLORYSTAR CONTACTVOYAGE STARMY INTELLIGENT — wonAPEX TOPRED BRICK FIGHTERALL RICHESRATTAN KINGDOMGREEN ENVYBEST FOR YOUCASA LEGENDANGELS HUNTERWAR EAGLE

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

13 77

PLACE

1 11

3 17

13 25.5

QUINELLA

3,13 210.5

QUINELLA PLACE

1,3 30.5

1,13 40

3,13 76.5

FORECAST

13,3 518

TIERCE

13,3,1 1,460

TRIO

1,3,13 192

FIRST 4

1,3,6,13 267

QUARTET

13,3,1,6 9,467

All pools (4 more)

3 PICK 1

A2 43.5

A1

A3

5TH DOUBLE

11/3 54.5

11/13 901

TRIPLE TRIO

1,2,8/10,11,13/1,3,13 1,574,359

TRIPLE TRIO (CONSOLATION)

1,2,8/10,11,13/Any Combination 19,900