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Sha Tin · 2022-04-10 · 14:31

Race 4

Class 5 GOOD 1800m Course C 14 runners

Result

Official · 1.48.14
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 0 DAILY CHARM Closed strongly B/TT 1.48.14 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) M Chadwick · C S Shum 5 4.3 3/4
2 0 FLYING MIGHTY Closed strongly B/TT Z Purton · D J Hall 7 4.2 3/4
3 0 DAILY BEAUTY Closed strongly PC-/TT J Moreira · C Fownes 6 15.0 3/4
4 0 WAH MAY LUCK B/TT A Badel · A S Cruz 3 10.0 1
5 0 GO GO SIXTEEN Closed strongly TT B Shinn · K W Lui 9 6.3 1-1/4
6 0 WINWIN THIRTYTHREE Closed strongly V L Currie · P F Yiu 2 25.0 2-1/4
7 0 WEALTHY EMPLOYEE B C Wong · K H Ting 11 51.0 2-1/2
8 0 JOLLY FOREVER XB/TT M F Poon · W Y So 4 12.0 3-1/4
9 0 FORTUNE TRIPLE K Teetan · Y S Tsui 8 19.0 4-1/2
10 0 PRIME STAR Closed strongly B/TT R Maia · A T Millard 10 9.3 4-1/2
11 0 OH BRAVO Closed strongly CP/TT C L Chau · W Y So 13 34.0 5
12 0 LIGHT MY DAY Led early B/TT K C Leung · C H Yip 14 34.0 5-1/2
13 0 SPLENDID TIMING B H T Mo · Y S Tsui 1 33.0 8
14 0 STAR OF GLORY P A Hamelin · C W Chang 12 22.0 24-1/4

This site does not show odds as they change: the odds here are final prices after a race, or overnight prices before it.

Race 4 at Sha Tin on 2022-04-10 was Class 5 over 1800m, run on GOOD going. DAILY CHARM, ridden by M Chadwick and trained by C S Shum, won by 3/4, with FLYING MIGHTY second and DAILY BEAUTY third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. The 4.2 favourite FLYING MIGHTY finished 2nd.

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. DAILY CHARM—2. FLYING MIGHTY+0.75L3. DAILY BEAUTY+0.75L4. WAH MAY LUCK+1L5. GO GO SIXTEEN+1.25L6. WINWIN THIRTYTHREE+2.25L7. WEALTHY EMPLOYEE+2.5L8. JOLLY FOREVER+3.25L9. FORTUNE TRIPLE+4.5L10. PRIME STAR+4.5L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2021-22
The model's top pick FLYING MIGHTY (25.0%) finished 2nd — the winner DAILY CHARM was rated #3. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 0 FLYING MIGHTY 25.0% 3.99 2
2 0 DAILY BEAUTY 16.1% 6.21 3
3 0 DAILY CHARM 10.6% 9.44 1
4 0 JOLLY FOREVER 8.1% 12.34 8
5 0 GO GO SIXTEEN 6.9% 14.49 5
6 0 WINWIN THIRTYTHREE 5.4% 18.50 6
7 0 PRIME STAR 5.1% 19.47 10
8 0 WAH MAY LUCK 4.5% 22.01 4
9 0 OH BRAVO 4.4% 22.99 11
10 0 FORTUNE TRIPLE 4.3% 23.51 9
11 0 STAR OF GLORY 3.2% 31.51 14
12 0 SPLENDID TIMING 2.7% 36.49 13
13 0 LIGHT MY DAY 1.9% 51.94 12
14 0 WEALTHY EMPLOYEE 1.7% 58.21 7
FLYING MIGHTYDAILY BEAUTYDAILY CHARM — wonJOLLY FOREVERGO GO SIXTEENWINWIN THIRTYTHREEPRIME STARWAH MAY LUCKOH BRAVOFORTUNE TRIPLESTAR OF GLORYSPLENDID TIMINGLIGHT MY DAYWEALTHY EMPLOYEE

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

1 43.5

PLACE

1 17.5

2 18.5

8 43.5

QUINELLA

1,2 122

QUINELLA PLACE

1,2 51

1,8 122

2,8 134.5

FORECAST

1,2 210

TIERCE

1,2,8 2,351

TRIO

1,2,8 632

FIRST 4

1,2,8,10 1,333

QUARTET

1,2,8,10 26,004

All pools (3 more)

1ST DOUBLE TRIO

4,6,12/1,2,8 779,213

3 PICK 1

A2 25

A1 —

A3 —

3RD DOUBLE

6/1 2,899.5

6/2 450.5