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Sha Tin · 2022-04-10 · 17:48

Race 10

Class 2 GOOD 1400m Course C 13 runners

Race 10 at Sha Tin on 2022-04-10 was Class 2 over 1400m, run on GOOD going. SILVER EXPRESS, ridden by Z Purton and trained by J Size, won by HD, with GOOD LUCK FRIEND second and IMA SINGLE MAN third. The winner led throughout. The 4.0 favourite CAPTAIN WIN finished 8th.

Result

Official · 1.22.00
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 1 SILVER EXPRESS Wire to wire B 1.22.00 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) Z Purton · J Size 11 6.9 HD
2 9 GOOD LUCK FRIEND Closed strongly CP/TT1 J Moreira · P F Yiu 3 6.6 HD
3 5 IMA SINGLE MAN Closed strongly H/CP2/TT L Ferraris · A S Cruz 9 19.0 3/4
4 13 WINNER METHOD Closed strongly TT K Teetan · C S Shum 5 11.0 3/4
5 10 NAVAS TWO Closed strongly CP R Maia · R Gibson 13 4.2 1
6 2 WINNING METHOD Closed strongly TT M Chadwick · C S Shum 7 13.0 1-1/2
7 4 THE GOLDEN SCENERY TT C L Chau · A S Cruz 2 8.8 1-3/4
8 12 CAPTAIN WIN B- A Badel · D J Hall 4 4.0 2-1/4
9 6 HINCHINLOVE B/TT H Bentley · T P Yung 6 61.0 2-1/2
10 3 MASTER MONTARO B-/CP2 B Shinn · D A Hayes 10 25.0 3-3/4
11 11 BOURBONAIRE Closed strongly H1 V Borges · J Size 12 40.0 4-1/4
12 8 BAND OF BROTHERS V K C Leung · P O'Sullivan 8 130.0 4-1/2
13 7 THE RUNNER V M F Poon · F C Lor 1 46.0 6

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. SILVER EXPRESS2. GOOD LUCK FRIEND+0.2L3. IMA SINGLE MAN+0.75L4. WINNER METHOD+0.75L5. NAVAS TWO+1L6. WINNING METHOD+1.5L7. THE GOLDEN SCENERY+1.75L8. CAPTAIN WIN+2.25L9. HINCHINLOVE+2.5L10. MASTER MONTARO+3.75L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2021-22
The model's top pick THE GOLDEN SCENERY (18.6%) finished 7th — the winner SILVER EXPRESS was rated #2. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 4 THE GOLDEN SCENERY 18.6% 5.38 7
2 1 SILVER EXPRESS 16.0% 6.23 1
3 9 GOOD LUCK FRIEND 14.2% 7.03 2
4 10 NAVAS TWO 12.4% 8.03 5
5 12 CAPTAIN WIN 11.3% 8.82 8
6 13 WINNER METHOD 5.7% 17.44 4
7 2 WINNING METHOD 5.6% 17.82 6
8 7 THE RUNNER 4.7% 21.27 13
9 3 MASTER MONTARO 3.6% 27.83 10
10 6 HINCHINLOVE 2.4% 42.47 9
11 11 BOURBONAIRE 2.0% 48.93 11
12 5 IMA SINGLE MAN 1.9% 52.66 3
13 8 BAND OF BROTHERS 1.4% 70.62 12
THE GOLDEN SCENERYSILVER EXPRESS — wonGOOD LUCK FRIENDNAVAS TWOCAPTAIN WINWINNER METHODWINNING METHODTHE RUNNERMASTER MONTAROHINCHINLOVEBOURBONAIREIMA SINGLE MANBAND OF BROTHERS

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

1 69.5

PLACE

1 27.5

5 53.5

9 23.5

QUINELLA

1,9 234

QUINELLA PLACE

1,5 231

1,9 89.5

5,9 199.5

FORECAST

1,9 473

TIERCE

1,9,5 7,104

TRIO

1,5,9 1,469

FIRST 4

1,5,9,13 3,688

QUARTET

1,9,5,13 65,272

All pools (5 more)

3 PICK 1

A1

A3

A2 24.5

3RD DOUBLE TRIO

1,5,9/1,5,9 29,934

9TH DOUBLE

1/1 187.5

1/9 55

SIX UP

11/13/1/4/1/1 68,801

11,13/3,13/1,2/4,8/1,9/1,9 4,110

2 [Z Purton]

TREBLE

4/1/1 691

4/1/9 146