Sha Tin · 2022-04-10 · 15:03
Race 5
Race 5 at Sha Tin on 2022-04-10 was Class 4 over 1400m, run on GOOD going. NATURAL GOLD, ridden by L Hewitson and trained by D J Whyte, won by 1-1/2, with COURAGEOUS KNIGHT second and JOYFUL GENIUS third. The winner led throughout. The 2.3 favourite JOYFUL GENIUS finished 3rd.
Result
| Pos | No. | Horse | Jockey | Trainer | Draw | Odds | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 11 | NATURAL GOLD Wire to wire SR/XB 1.22.02 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) L Hewitson · D J Whyte | L Hewitson | D J Whyte | 11 | 7.7 | 1-1/2 |
| 2 | 13 | COURAGEOUS KNIGHT Closed strongly B-/SR1/TT M F Poon · C S Shum | M F Poon | C S Shum | 3 | 25.0 | 1-1/2 |
| 3 | 10 | JOYFUL GENIUS Closed strongly CP Z Purton · D J Hall | Z Purton | D J Hall | 4 | 2.3 | 1-3/4 |
| 4 | 4 | AMAZING VICTORY H K Teetan · L Ho | K Teetan | L Ho | 7 | 5.5 | 2-3/4 |
| 5 | 2 | TURIN WARRIOR B/XB B Shinn · R Gibson | B Shinn | R Gibson | 8 | 28.0 | 3 |
| 6 | 12 | CIRCUIT ELITE TT A Badel · A S Cruz | A Badel | A S Cruz | 2 | 22.0 | 3-3/4 |
| 7 | 5 | HANG'S DECISION Closed strongly B V Borges · W Y So | V Borges | W Y So | 1 | 33.0 | 3-3/4 |
| 8 | 7 | CHEERY Closed strongly J Moreira · P F Yiu | J Moreira | P F Yiu | 13 | 5.8 | 4 |
| 9 | 9 | SIXTH GENERATION H Bentley · C H Yip | H Bentley | C H Yip | 10 | 23.0 | 4-1/4 |
| 10 | 3 | INDIGENOUS REALM TT K C Leung · K L Man | K C Leung | K L Man | 5 | 99.0 | 4-1/2 |
| 11 | 8 | CITY LEGEND Closed strongly B/TT C L Chau · T P Yung | C L Chau | T P Yung | 14 | 25.0 | 5-1/4 |
| 12 | 1 | LIFELINE VISION C Y Ho · D A Hayes | C Y Ho | D A Hayes | 12 | 26.0 | 6-1/4 |
| 13 | 14 | SUPERB DADDY CP-/TT M Chadwick · Y S Tsui | M Chadwick | Y S Tsui | 9 | 48.0 | 6-3/4 |
| 14 | 6 | ACCELERANDO A Hamelin · J Size | A Hamelin | J Size | 6 | 101.0 | 9-3/4 |
Race shape
Model ratings
| Rank | No. | Horse | Win % | Rated price | Pos |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 10 | JOYFUL GENIUS | 25.0% | 3.99 | 3 |
| 2 | 7 | CHEERY | 24.1% | 4.15 | 8 |
| 3 | 4 | AMAZING VICTORY | 15.6% | 6.39 | 4 |
| 4 | 11 | NATURAL GOLD | 6.5% | 15.40 | 1 |
| 5 | 13 | COURAGEOUS KNIGHT | 5.1% | 19.71 | 2 |
| 6 | 8 | CITY LEGEND | 4.2% | 24.09 | 11 |
| 7 | 1 | LIFELINE VISION | 4.0% | 24.92 | 12 |
| 8 | 9 | SIXTH GENERATION | 3.3% | 30.32 | 9 |
| 9 | 14 | SUPERB DADDY | 3.1% | 32.63 | 13 |
| 10 | 12 | CIRCUIT ELITE | 3.0% | 33.50 | 6 |
| 11 | 6 | ACCELERANDO | 1.8% | 54.47 | 14 |
| 12 | 2 | TURIN WARRIOR | 1.6% | 63.16 | 5 |
| 13 | 3 | INDIGENOUS REALM | 1.5% | 66.38 | 10 |
| 14 | 5 | HANG'S DECISION | 1.2% | 81.39 | 7 |
Model vs market
Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.
Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →
Dividends
WIN
11 77
PLACE
10 13.5
11 30.5
13 50
QUINELLA
11,13 1,245.5
QUINELLA PLACE
10,11 53
10,13 82
11,13 328.5
FORECAST
11,13 2,358
TIERCE
11,13,10 6,903
TRIO
10,11,13 748
FIRST 4
4,10,11,13 884
QUARTET
11,13,10,4 37,943
All pools (2 more)
3 PICK 1
A3 —
A2 28.5
A1 —
4TH DOUBLE
1/11 441
1/13 223