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Sha Tin · 2022-04-10 · 15:03

Race 5

Class 4 GOOD 1400m Course C 14 runners

Race 5 at Sha Tin on 2022-04-10 was Class 4 over 1400m, run on GOOD going. NATURAL GOLD, ridden by L Hewitson and trained by D J Whyte, won by 1-1/2, with COURAGEOUS KNIGHT second and JOYFUL GENIUS third. The winner led throughout. The 2.3 favourite JOYFUL GENIUS finished 3rd.

Result

Official · 1.22.02
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 11 NATURAL GOLD Wire to wire SR/XB 1.22.02 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) L Hewitson · D J Whyte 11 7.7 1-1/2
2 13 COURAGEOUS KNIGHT Closed strongly B-/SR1/TT M F Poon · C S Shum 3 25.0 1-1/2
3 10 JOYFUL GENIUS Closed strongly CP Z Purton · D J Hall 4 2.3 1-3/4
4 4 AMAZING VICTORY H K Teetan · L Ho 7 5.5 2-3/4
5 2 TURIN WARRIOR B/XB B Shinn · R Gibson 8 28.0 3
6 12 CIRCUIT ELITE TT A Badel · A S Cruz 2 22.0 3-3/4
7 5 HANG'S DECISION Closed strongly B V Borges · W Y So 1 33.0 3-3/4
8 7 CHEERY Closed strongly J Moreira · P F Yiu 13 5.8 4
9 9 SIXTH GENERATION H Bentley · C H Yip 10 23.0 4-1/4
10 3 INDIGENOUS REALM TT K C Leung · K L Man 5 99.0 4-1/2
11 8 CITY LEGEND Closed strongly B/TT C L Chau · T P Yung 14 25.0 5-1/4
12 1 LIFELINE VISION C Y Ho · D A Hayes 12 26.0 6-1/4
13 14 SUPERB DADDY CP-/TT M Chadwick · Y S Tsui 9 48.0 6-3/4
14 6 ACCELERANDO A Hamelin · J Size 6 101.0 9-3/4

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. NATURAL GOLD2. COURAGEOUS KNIGHT+1.5L3. JOYFUL GENIUS+1.75L4. AMAZING VICTORY+2.75L5. TURIN WARRIOR+3L6. CIRCUIT ELITE+3.75L7. HANG'S DECISION+3.75L8. CHEERY+4L9. SIXTH GENERATION+4.25L10. INDIGENOUS REALM+4.5L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2021-22
The model's top pick JOYFUL GENIUS (25.0%) finished 3rd — the winner NATURAL GOLD was rated #4. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 10 JOYFUL GENIUS 25.0% 3.99 3
2 7 CHEERY 24.1% 4.15 8
3 4 AMAZING VICTORY 15.6% 6.39 4
4 11 NATURAL GOLD 6.5% 15.40 1
5 13 COURAGEOUS KNIGHT 5.1% 19.71 2
6 8 CITY LEGEND 4.2% 24.09 11
7 1 LIFELINE VISION 4.0% 24.92 12
8 9 SIXTH GENERATION 3.3% 30.32 9
9 14 SUPERB DADDY 3.1% 32.63 13
10 12 CIRCUIT ELITE 3.0% 33.50 6
11 6 ACCELERANDO 1.8% 54.47 14
12 2 TURIN WARRIOR 1.6% 63.16 5
13 3 INDIGENOUS REALM 1.5% 66.38 10
14 5 HANG'S DECISION 1.2% 81.39 7
JOYFUL GENIUSCHEERYAMAZING VICTORYNATURAL GOLD — wonCOURAGEOUS KNIGHTCITY LEGENDLIFELINE VISIONSIXTH GENERATIONSUPERB DADDYCIRCUIT ELITEACCELERANDOTURIN WARRIORINDIGENOUS REALMHANG'S DECISION

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

11 77

PLACE

10 13.5

11 30.5

13 50

QUINELLA

11,13 1,245.5

QUINELLA PLACE

10,11 53

10,13 82

11,13 328.5

FORECAST

11,13 2,358

TIERCE

11,13,10 6,903

TRIO

10,11,13 748

FIRST 4

4,10,11,13 884

QUARTET

11,13,10,4 37,943

All pools (2 more)

3 PICK 1

A3

A2 28.5

A1

4TH DOUBLE

1/11 441

1/13 223