Sha Tin · 2022-04-10 · 16:07

Race 7

Class 2 GOOD 1000m Course C 9 runners

Race 7 at Sha Tin on 2022-04-10 was Class 2 over 1000m, run on GOOD going. NERVOUS WITNESS, ridden by B Shinn and trained by D A Hayes, won by N, with STOLTZ second and CARROLL STREET third. Victory came as the 1.7 favourite.

Result

Official · 0.55.85

Pos	No.	Horse	Jockey	Trainer	Draw	Weight	Odds	Margin
1	1	NERVOUS WITNESS XB 0.55.85 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) B Shinn · D A Hayes	B Shinn	D A Hayes	9	128 lb	1.7	N
2	2	STOLTZ CP Z Purton · K W Lui	Z Purton	K W Lui	3	121 lb	7.3	N
3	5	CARROLL STREET B/TT C Y Ho · D J Whyte	C Y Ho	D J Whyte	1	118 lb	5.5	3/4
4	4	HONG KONG WIN J Moreira · J Size	J Moreira	J Size	4	119 lb	13.0	1-1/2
5	7	VALIANT DREAM K Teetan · K W Lui	K Teetan	K W Lui	7	117 lb	7.9	1-3/4
6	9	METRO WARRIOR B M Chadwick · D A Hayes	M Chadwick	D A Hayes	5	116 lb	11.0	2-1/2
7	8	CLASSIC UNICORN P1/TT L Hewitson · W Y So	L Hewitson	W Y So	6	116 lb	75.0	3
8	3	HIGHLY PROACTIVE H/P/TT H T Mo · C W Chang	H T Mo	C W Chang	2	118 lb	94.0	6
9	6	PING HAI BRAVO TT V Borges · J Size	V Borges	J Size	8	118 lb	51.0	6-3/4

Race shape

Beaten lengths

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2021-22

The model's top pick NERVOUS WITNESS (34.9%) won this race. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.

Rank	No.	Horse	Win %	Rated price	Pos	Final odds
1	1	NERVOUS WITNESS	34.9%	2.86	1	1.7
2	2	STOLTZ	24.9%	4.01	2	7.3
3	4	HONG KONG WIN	15.8%	6.35	4	13.0
4	9	METRO WARRIOR	8.3%	12.02	6	11.0
5	5	CARROLL STREET	5.9%	16.83	3	5.5
6	7	VALIANT DREAM	5.1%	19.42	5	7.9
7	6	PING HAI BRAVO	3.0%	33.33	9	51.0
8	3	HIGHLY PROACTIVE	1.2%	84.50	8	94.0
9	8	CLASSIC UNICORN	0.8%	126.97	7	75.0

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

1 17.5

PLACE

1 13

2 18.5

5 15.5

QUINELLA

1,2 66.5

QUINELLA PLACE

1,2 30

1,5 22.5

2,5 58.5

FORECAST

1,2 113

TIERCE

1,2,5 417

TRIO

1,2,5 105

FIRST 4

1,2,4,5 138

QUARTET

1,2,5,4 1,825

All pools (3 more)

2ND DOUBLE TRIO

1,3,13/1,2,5 1,710

3 PICK 1

A1 17.5

A2 —

A3 —

6TH DOUBLE

13/1 226.5

13/2 120

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