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Sha Tin · 2022-04-10 · 13:33

Race 2

Class 5 GOOD 1200m Course C 12 runners

Race 2 at Sha Tin on 2022-04-10 was Class 5 over 1200m, run on GOOD going. DRAGON KINGDOM, ridden by K C Leung and trained by Y S Tsui, won by 1-3/4, with SUNNY AND GOLD second and ZACIAN third. The 4.2 favourite SUNNY AND GOLD finished 2nd.

Result

Official · 1.09.41
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 6 DRAGON KINGDOM 1.09.41 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) K C Leung · Y S Tsui 3 5.4 1-3/4
2 8 SUNNY AND GOLD B-/TT H Bentley · C H Yip 2 4.2 1-3/4
3 9 ZACIAN C Y Ho · C S Shum 5 7.8 1-3/4
4 5 FARM BUMPER B- J Moreira · K L Man 4 23.0 2-1/2
5 7 LITTLE PLAYER B2 C L Chau · D A Hayes 7 14.0 4-1/4
6 3 TOWARDS SUCCESS XB-/TT Z Purton · W Y So 9 4.3 4-1/4
7 2 BEAUTY CHEERS L Currie · J Size 1 10.0 5-1/4
8 1 CORDYCEPS ONE H V Borges · K W Lui 11 18.0 5-3/4
9 12 SUPER FLAMES TT M L Yeung · L Ho 6 32.0 5-3/4
10 11 ONE STEP AHEAD B K Teetan · C W Chang 12 10.0 6
11 10 GALLANT CAVALIER B-/V1/TT R Maia · A T Millard 8 45.0 6-1/4
12 4 ALL YOU KNOW B/H/TT B Shinn · R Gibson 10 51.0 9-3/4

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. DRAGON KINGDOM2. SUNNY AND GOLD+1.75L3. ZACIAN+1.75L4. FARM BUMPER+2.5L5. LITTLE PLAYER+4.25L6. TOWARDS SUCCESS+4.25L7. BEAUTY CHEERS+5.25L8. CORDYCEPS ONE+5.75L9. SUPER FLAMES+5.75L10. ONE STEP AHEAD+6L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2021-22
The model's top pick TOWARDS SUCCESS (22.6%) finished 6th — the winner DRAGON KINGDOM was rated #8. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 3 TOWARDS SUCCESS 22.6% 4.43 6
2 2 BEAUTY CHEERS 13.0% 7.69 7
3 11 ONE STEP AHEAD 12.5% 7.98 10
4 5 FARM BUMPER 12.1% 8.25 4
5 8 SUNNY AND GOLD 9.5% 10.56 2
6 7 LITTLE PLAYER 6.6% 15.05 5
7 9 ZACIAN 6.4% 15.59 3
8 6 DRAGON KINGDOM 4.8% 20.92 1
9 4 ALL YOU KNOW 4.7% 21.29 12
10 1 CORDYCEPS ONE 3.5% 28.73 8
11 10 GALLANT CAVALIER 2.6% 38.80 11
12 12 SUPER FLAMES 1.7% 58.89 9
TOWARDS SUCCESSBEAUTY CHEERSONE STEP AHEADFARM BUMPERSUNNY AND GOLDLITTLE PLAYERZACIANDRAGON KINGDOM — wonALL YOU KNOWCORDYCEPS ONEGALLANT CAVALIERSUPER FLAMES

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

6 54

PLACE

6 20

8 16.5

9 24

QUINELLA

6,8 144.5

QUINELLA PLACE

6,8 53

6,9 82.5

8,9 50.5

FORECAST

6,8 254

TIERCE

6,8,9 1,228

TRIO

6,8,9 302

FIRST 4

5,6,8,9 1,199

QUARTET

6,8,9,5 17,552

All pools (2 more)

1ST DOUBLE

6/6 76

6/8 29

3 PICK 1

A2

A3

A1 23.5