Skip to content

HKJC Guru is an independent statistics service and is not affiliated with, endorsed by, or connected to The Hong Kong Jockey Club.

Sha Tin · 2022-04-24 · 17:18

Race 10

Class 3 GOOD TO FIRM 1400m Course A 14 runners

Race 10 at Sha Tin on 2022-04-24 was Class 3 over 1400m, run on GOOD TO FIRM going. SUPER TEN, ridden by L Hewitson and trained by D J Whyte, won by N, with MALDIVES second and GOLDEN EMPIRE third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. The 3.1 favourite GOLDEN EMPIRE finished 3rd.

Result

Official · 1.21.83
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 12 SUPER TEN Closed strongly B-/XB-/SR1/TT1 1.21.83 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) L Hewitson · D J Whyte 1 9.6 N
2 3 MALDIVES Closed strongly XB B Shinn · D J Hall 10 20.0 N
3 7 GOLDEN EMPIRE Closed strongly Z Purton · K W Lui 7 3.1 N
4 8 STORM LEGEND Closed strongly L Currie · C Fownes 3 38.0 1/2
5 1 CIRCUIT STELLAR Closed strongly TT K Teetan · A S Cruz 6 4.5 2-1/4
6 9 DRAGON FORTUNE Closed strongly TT K C Leung · F C Lor 2 17.0 2-1/4
7 2 BEAUTY LIVE TT J Moreira · F C Lor 14 4.3 2-1/4
8 14 MILLENNIUM FALCON H M Chadwick · T P Yung 9 15.0 3
9 4 PEGASUS GENERAL Closed strongly CP H Bentley · K H Ting 11 130.0 4
10 11 JOLLY RULER H/TT1 C Y Ho · P F Yiu 13 35.0 4-3/4
11 10 SMOOTHIES Closed strongly B/TT M F Poon · C S Shum 8 21.0 5
12 13 COUNTRY BOY H/P/TT A Badel · J Size 12 31.0 5-1/4
13 5 SEATTLE CHOICE L Ferraris · A T Millard 5 46.0 6-1/2
14 6 SHADOW MISSION Led early H- C L Chau · Y S Tsui 4 206.0 6-3/4

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. SUPER TEN2. MALDIVES+0.05L3. GOLDEN EMPIRE+0.05L4. STORM LEGEND+0.5L5. CIRCUIT STELLAR+2.25L6. DRAGON FORTUNE+2.25L7. BEAUTY LIVE+2.25L8. MILLENNIUM FALCON+3L9. PEGASUS GENERAL+4L10. JOLLY RULER+4.75L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2021-22
The model's top pick BEAUTY LIVE (46.4%) finished 7th — the winner SUPER TEN was rated #11. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 2 BEAUTY LIVE 46.4% 2.16 7
2 7 GOLDEN EMPIRE 18.3% 5.47 3
3 1 CIRCUIT STELLAR 7.3% 13.76 5
4 3 MALDIVES 5.0% 19.89 2
5 14 MILLENNIUM FALCON 4.3% 23.10 8
6 13 COUNTRY BOY 4.1% 24.11 12
7 8 STORM LEGEND 3.9% 25.46 4
8 9 DRAGON FORTUNE 3.2% 31.20 6
9 10 SMOOTHIES 2.1% 48.72 11
10 5 SEATTLE CHOICE 1.8% 56.05 13
11 12 SUPER TEN 1.4% 69.31 1
12 11 JOLLY RULER 1.4% 71.54 10
13 4 PEGASUS GENERAL 0.4% 240.37 9
14 6 SHADOW MISSION 0.4% 280.91 14
BEAUTY LIVEGOLDEN EMPIRECIRCUIT STELLARMALDIVESMILLENNIUM FALCONCOUNTRY BOYSTORM LEGENDDRAGON FORTUNESMOOTHIESSEATTLE CHOICESUPER TEN — wonJOLLY RULERPEGASUS GENERALSHADOW MISSION

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

12 96

PLACE

3 45.5

7 14.5

12 30.5

QUINELLA

3,12 1,076

QUINELLA PLACE

3,7 86.5

3,12 248

7,12 71

FORECAST

12,3 1,997

TIERCE

12,3,7 8,420

TRIO

3,7,12 985

FIRST 4

3,7,8,12 5,175

QUARTET

12,3,7,8 143,988

All pools (2 more)

3 PICK 1

A3 30.5

A2

A1

9TH DOUBLE

8/3 57

8/12 302.5