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Sha Tin · 2022-04-24 · 13:26

Race 3

Class 3 GOOD 1600m Course A 11 runners

Race 3 at Sha Tin on 2022-04-24 was Class 3 over 1600m, run on GOOD going. CHARITY GRACE, ridden by M F Poon and trained by C S Shum, won by 1-1/2, with ROYAL BOMB second and LEADING FORTUNE third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. The 4.8 favourite PRECISE EXPRESS finished 10th.

Result

Official · 1.33.82
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 2 CHARITY GRACE Closed strongly B 1.33.82 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) M F Poon · C S Shum 2 7.5 1-1/2
2 4 ROYAL BOMB Closed strongly CP/TT B Shinn · C Fownes 6 6.7 1-1/2
3 5 LEADING FORTUNE Closed strongly B Z Purton · J Size 5 5.4 1-1/2
4 3 GOLDEN LINK Closed strongly M Chadwick · P F Yiu 7 14.0 2-1/2
5 9 MY ECSTATIC Led early TT K C Leung · F C Lor 1 5.9 2-3/4
6 1 ULTRA EXPRESS Closed strongly B/TT A Badel · A T Millard 9 18.0 4-1/4
7 7 BOOM ALLIANCE SR/TT L Hewitson · D J Whyte 3 10.0 4-1/2
8 6 SUPER WINNER TT C Wong · C H Yip 4 7.7 8
9 11 BORN THE SAME DAY Closed strongly H M L Yeung · K W Lui 10 110.0 8-1/4
10 8 PRECISE EXPRESS H/TT J Moreira · P F Yiu 8 4.8 8-1/4
11 10 HAPPY ANGEL CP H W Lai · D A Hayes 11 73.0 8-3/4

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. CHARITY GRACE2. ROYAL BOMB+1.5L3. LEADING FORTUNE+1.5L4. GOLDEN LINK+2.5L5. MY ECSTATIC+2.75L6. ULTRA EXPRESS+4.25L7. BOOM ALLIANCE+4.5L8. SUPER WINNER+8L9. BORN THE SAME DAY+8.25L10. PRECISE EXPRESS+8.25L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2021-22
The model's top pick MY ECSTATIC (23.5%) finished 5th — the winner CHARITY GRACE was rated #3. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 9 MY ECSTATIC 23.5% 4.25 5
2 5 LEADING FORTUNE 17.9% 5.59 3
3 2 CHARITY GRACE 12.3% 8.10 1
4 4 ROYAL BOMB 11.2% 8.92 2
5 8 PRECISE EXPRESS 10.8% 9.26 10
6 1 ULTRA EXPRESS 10.1% 9.88 6
7 6 SUPER WINNER 6.2% 16.14 8
8 3 GOLDEN LINK 4.5% 22.34 4
9 7 BOOM ALLIANCE 1.8% 56.40 7
10 10 HAPPY ANGEL 1.1% 88.83 11
11 11 BORN THE SAME DAY 0.6% 174.40 9
MY ECSTATICLEADING FORTUNECHARITY GRACE — wonROYAL BOMBPRECISE EXPRESSULTRA EXPRESSSUPER WINNERGOLDEN LINKBOOM ALLIANCEHAPPY ANGELBORN THE SAME DAY

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

2 75

PLACE

2 24.5

4 24

5 19

QUINELLA

2,4 274.5

QUINELLA PLACE

2,4 86

2,5 91.5

4,5 72

FORECAST

2,4 769

TIERCE

2,4,5 2,595

TRIO

2,4,5 381

FIRST 4

2,3,4,5 794

QUARTET

2,4,5,3 19,905

All pools (2 more)

2ND DOUBLE

6/2 748

6/4 87

3 PICK 1

A2 19.5

A1

A3