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Sha Tin · 2022-04-24 · 12:27

Race 1

Class 4 GOOD 1200m Course A 14 runners

Race 1 at Sha Tin on 2022-04-24 was Class 4 over 1200m, run on GOOD going. LUCKY QUALITY, ridden by K H Chan and trained by C Fownes, won by 3-1/4, with FIGHTING STAR second and DOUBLE SHOW third. The 2.7 favourite BRAVE DREAMS finished 5th.

Result

Official · 1.09.31
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 3 LUCKY QUALITY V 1.09.31 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) K H Chan · C Fownes 1 10.0 3-1/4
2 12 FIGHTING STAR B/XB/TT A Badel · C H Yip 4 21.0 3-1/4
3 10 DOUBLE SHOW SR/TT L Hewitson · D J Whyte 8 10.0 4-1/2
4 4 ALL IS READY B1 C L Chau · P F Yiu 7 77.0 5-1/2
5 9 BRAVE DREAMS H/TT K Teetan · A S Cruz 9 2.7 5-1/2
6 5 DREAM CATCHER M L Yeung · K H Ting 2 93.0 5-3/4
7 2 SCIENCE PATCH B B Shinn · P O'Sullivan 10 6.3 6
8 6 FOREVER GLORIOUS TT1 H Bentley · K W Lui 14 56.0 7-1/4
9 14 CALL ME LU TT H W Lai · W Y So 11 208.0 8-1/2
10 13 VICTORIA GENERAL H-/XB1/TT- H T Mo · D J Hall 12 118.0 10-1/2
11 11 FORTUNE CARRIER M F Poon · C S Shum 6 7.5 12-1/4
12 8 SIGHT HERO B/TT A Hamelin · D A Hayes 3 12.0 13-1/4
13 1 RHAPSODY J Moreira · J Size 13 5.7 14-1/2
14 7 MIRACLES M Chadwick · K L Man 5 68.0 15-1/4

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. LUCKY QUALITY2. FIGHTING STAR+3.25L3. DOUBLE SHOW+4.5L4. ALL IS READY+5.5L5. BRAVE DREAMS+5.5L6. DREAM CATCHER+5.75L7. SCIENCE PATCH+6L8. FOREVER GLORIOUS+7.25L9. CALL ME LU+8.5L10. VICTORIA GENERAL+10.5L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2021-22
The model's top pick SCIENCE PATCH (19.9%) finished 7th — the winner LUCKY QUALITY was rated #3. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 2 SCIENCE PATCH 19.9% 5.03 7
2 9 BRAVE DREAMS 13.2% 7.58 5
3 3 LUCKY QUALITY 12.1% 8.25 1
4 1 RHAPSODY 12.1% 8.26 13
5 11 FORTUNE CARRIER 9.3% 10.78 11
6 8 SIGHT HERO 9.0% 11.07 12
7 12 FIGHTING STAR 8.4% 11.89 2
8 6 FOREVER GLORIOUS 3.2% 30.78 8
9 5 DREAM CATCHER 3.2% 31.54 6
10 10 DOUBLE SHOW 3.1% 32.13 3
11 7 MIRACLES 2.3% 44.36 14
12 13 VICTORIA GENERAL 2.0% 50.61 10
13 14 CALL ME LU 1.1% 89.53 9
14 4 ALL IS READY 1.1% 91.15 4
SCIENCE PATCHBRAVE DREAMSLUCKY QUALITY — wonRHAPSODYFORTUNE CARRIERSIGHT HEROFIGHTING STARFOREVER GLORIOUSDREAM CATCHERDOUBLE SHOWMIRACLESVICTORIA GENERALCALL ME LUALL IS READY

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

3 104

PLACE

3 28

10 25

12 51.5

QUINELLA

3,12 1,024.5

QUINELLA PLACE

3,10 145

3,12 254.5

10,12 289.5

FORECAST

3,12 3,231

TIERCE

3,12,10 19,653

TRIO

3,10,12 3,092

FIRST 4

3,4,10,12 25,602

QUARTET

3,12,10,4 522,708

All pools (1 more)

3 PICK 1

A1

A2 30

A3