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Sha Tin · 2022-04-24 · 13:56

Race 4

Class 4 GOOD 1400m Course A 14 runners

Race 4 at Sha Tin on 2022-04-24 was Class 4 over 1400m, run on GOOD going. KUNG FU TEA, ridden by L Hewitson and trained by D J Hall, won by HD, with LIGHT OF WANSHI second and ERIMO third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. The 3.0 favourite ERIMO finished 3rd.

Result

Official · 1.21.94
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 14 KUNG FU TEA Closed strongly B 1.21.94 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) L Hewitson · D J Hall 3 17.0 HD
2 2 LIGHT OF WANSHI Closed strongly TT M Chadwick · W Y So 10 9.2 HD
3 4 ERIMO H J Moreira · J Size 12 3.0 1/2
4 12 CASA LEGEND Closed strongly TT H Bentley · C S Shum 4 10.0 3/4
5 9 SPARKY STAR Closed strongly Z Purton · T P Yung 2 3.0 1-1/4
6 13 HEARTY WISH Closed strongly B-/H-/SR2/TT L Currie · D J Whyte 1 29.0 2-3/4
7 10 STAR CONTACT Led early B/TT B Shinn · D A Hayes 6 10.0 2-3/4
8 6 ROCKPAPERSCISSORS Closed strongly CP1/TT1 M F Poon · F C Lor 7 122.0 3-1/2
9 8 FIERY FLYING Closed strongly H K C Leung · A T Millard 5 61.0 3-3/4
10 3 CIRCUIT MIGHTY B-/TT A Badel · K L Man 14 22.0 4
11 11 ISLAND SHINE B V Borges · P F Yiu 13 126.0 7-3/4
12 7 CONCERTO B1/TT A Hamelin · K H Ting 8 262.0 9-1/4
13 1 GALLANT WAKING C Y Ho · K W Lui 11 30.0 10
14 5 MAXIMIZE HEART B C L Chau · C H Yip 9 22.0 12-1/4

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. KUNG FU TEA2. LIGHT OF WANSHI+0.2L3. ERIMO+0.5L4. CASA LEGEND+0.75L5. SPARKY STAR+1.25L6. HEARTY WISH+2.75L7. STAR CONTACT+2.75L8. ROCKPAPERSCISSORS+3.5L9. FIERY FLYING+3.75L10. CIRCUIT MIGHTY+4L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2021-22
The model's top pick ERIMO (29.3%) finished 3rd — the winner KUNG FU TEA was rated #10. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 4 ERIMO 29.3% 3.41 3
2 9 SPARKY STAR 25.8% 3.87 5
3 2 LIGHT OF WANSHI 7.1% 14.17 2
4 10 STAR CONTACT 6.1% 16.45 7
5 6 ROCKPAPERSCISSORS 5.7% 17.42 8
6 1 GALLANT WAKING 5.0% 20.09 13
7 5 MAXIMIZE HEART 4.1% 24.60 14
8 12 CASA LEGEND 3.9% 25.87 4
9 13 HEARTY WISH 3.8% 26.60 6
10 14 KUNG FU TEA 3.0% 33.03 1
11 3 CIRCUIT MIGHTY 2.5% 40.42 10
12 8 FIERY FLYING 2.0% 49.64 9
13 11 ISLAND SHINE 1.3% 76.66 11
14 7 CONCERTO 0.5% 197.88 12
ERIMOSPARKY STARLIGHT OF WANSHISTAR CONTACTROCKPAPERSCISSORSGALLANT WAKINGMAXIMIZE HEARTCASA LEGENDHEARTY WISHKUNG FU TEA — wonCIRCUIT MIGHTYFIERY FLYINGISLAND SHINECONCERTO

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

14 172

PLACE

2 35

4 14.5

14 36.5

QUINELLA

2,14 815

QUINELLA PLACE

2,4 64.5

2,14 223.5

4,14 95

FORECAST

14,2 1,910

TIERCE

14,2,4 8,544

TRIO

2,4,14 998

FIRST 4

2,4,12,14 1,269

QUARTET

14,2,4,12 46,854

All pools (2 more)

3 PICK 1

A3 40

A1

A2

3RD DOUBLE

2/2 87.5

2/14 1,353