Skip to content

HKJC Guru is an independent statistics service and is not affiliated with, endorsed by, or connected to The Hong Kong Jockey Club.

Sha Tin · 2022-04-24 · 14:28

Race 5

Class 2 GOOD 1600m Course A 11 runners

Race 5 at Sha Tin on 2022-04-24 was Class 2 over 1600m, run on GOOD going. BEAUTY JOY, ridden by Z Purton and trained by A S Cruz, won by 1-1/2, with SAVAQUIN second and TURIN REDSUN third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. Victory came as the 2.4 favourite.

Result

Official · 1.33.86
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 1 BEAUTY JOY Closed strongly H/TT 1.33.86 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) Z Purton · A S Cruz 3 2.4 1-1/2
2 3 SAVAQUIN Closed strongly J Moreira · J Size 4 10.0 1-1/2
3 4 TURIN REDSUN Closed strongly SR-/B1/TT A Badel · D J Whyte 8 5.3 2
4 9 FLYING QUEST Closed strongly B H T Mo · D J Hall 5 44.0 2-1/4
5 8 SOULMATE E K H Chan · P F Yiu 1 8.1 2-1/4
5 11 BOURBONAIRE Closed strongly H V Borges · J Size 2 15.0 2-1/4
7 2 MY SUGAR CP C L Chau · K H Ting 6 11.0 2-1/2
8 6 CALIFORNIA TEN Closed strongly B/TT K Teetan · A S Cruz 9 13.0 6
9 5 BELUGA H L Currie · D J Hall 10 18.0 7-3/4
10 7 CIRCUIT THREE Closed strongly B/TT H Bentley · T P Yung 11 23.0 7-3/4
11 10 ALL FOR ST PAUL'S Led early B M F Poon · F C Lor 7 21.0 9-1/4

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. BEAUTY JOY2. SAVAQUIN+1.5L3. TURIN REDSUN+2L4. FLYING QUEST+2.25L5. SOULMATE+2.25L5. BOURBONAIRE+2.25L7. MY SUGAR+2.5L8. CALIFORNIA TEN+6L9. BELUGA+7.75L10. CIRCUIT THREE+7.75L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2021-22
The model's top pick BEAUTY JOY (41.1%) won this race. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 1 BEAUTY JOY 41.1% 2.43 1
2 3 SAVAQUIN 15.2% 6.56 2
3 8 SOULMATE 11.9% 8.42 5
4 2 MY SUGAR 7.8% 12.82 7
5 5 BELUGA 6.0% 16.64 9
6 10 ALL FOR ST PAUL'S 5.5% 18.11 11
7 6 CALIFORNIA TEN 4.6% 21.64 8
8 4 TURIN REDSUN 3.1% 32.22 3
9 9 FLYING QUEST 1.9% 51.97 4
10 7 CIRCUIT THREE 1.7% 57.63 10
11 11 BOURBONAIRE 1.0% 96.45 5
BEAUTY JOY — wonSAVAQUINSOULMATEMY SUGARBELUGAALL FOR ST PAUL'SCALIFORNIA TENTURIN REDSUNFLYING QUESTCIRCUIT THREEBOURBONAIRE

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

1 24

PLACE

1 13

3 24

4 18

QUINELLA

1,3 117.5

QUINELLA PLACE

1,3 48

1,4 31.5

3,4 74

FORECAST

1,3 175

TIERCE

1,3,4 514

TRIO

1,3,4 163

FIRST 4

1,3,4,9 1,149

QUARTET

1,3,4,9 12,812

All pools (3 more)

1ST DOUBLE TRIO

2,4,14/1,3,4 12,457

3 PICK 1

A2

A1 16.5

A3

4TH DOUBLE

14/1 582.5

14/3 276.5