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Sha Tin · 2022-04-24 · 15:03

Race 6

Group 1 GOOD 1200m Course A 10 runners

Race 6 at Sha Tin on 2022-04-24 was Group 1 over 1200m, run on GOOD going. WELLINGTON, ridden by A Badel and trained by R Gibson, won by 1-1/4, with COMPUTER PATCH second and SKY FIELD third. Victory came as the 2.9 favourite.

Result

Official · 1.08.09
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 2 WELLINGTON XB 1.08.09 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) A Badel · R Gibson 8 2.9 1-1/4
2 9 COMPUTER PATCH CP1/TT M Chadwick · K H Ting 1 20.0 1-1/4
3 1 SKY FIELD TT B Shinn · C Fownes 6 5.8 1-1/4
4 7 SUPER WEALTHY H L Currie · D A Hayes 5 26.0 1-1/4
5 5 HOT KING PRAWN J Moreira · J Size 3 14.0 2-1/4
6 6 SIGHT SUCCESS E Z Purton · J Size 2 3.3 2-1/2
7 4 STRONGER SR/XB C Y Ho · D J Whyte 7 19.0 2-1/2
8 10 LUCKY EXPRESS B/E/TT A Hamelin · J Size 9 46.0 3-3/4
9 3 LUCKY PATCH H/V C L Chau · K W Lui 10 6.1 5
10 11 KURPANY B/TT L Ferraris · C Fownes 4 120.0 11-1/2
8 MASTER EIGHT K Teetan · F C Lor

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. WELLINGTON2. COMPUTER PATCH+1.25L3. SKY FIELD+1.25L4. SUPER WEALTHY+1.25L5. HOT KING PRAWN+2.25L6. SIGHT SUCCESS+2.5L7. STRONGER+2.5L8. LUCKY EXPRESS+3.75L9. LUCKY PATCH+5L10. KURPANY+11.5L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2021-22
The model's top pick SIGHT SUCCESS (28.5%) finished 6th — the winner WELLINGTON was rated #4. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 6 SIGHT SUCCESS 28.5% 3.50 6
2 3 LUCKY PATCH 16.6% 6.02 9
3 5 HOT KING PRAWN 12.3% 8.15 5
4 2 WELLINGTON 9.6% 10.40 1
5 1 SKY FIELD 9.4% 10.69 3
6 7 SUPER WEALTHY 7.7% 13.01 4
7 4 STRONGER 5.6% 17.92 7
8 9 COMPUTER PATCH 4.0% 25.19 2
9 11 KURPANY 3.3% 30.33 10
10 10 LUCKY EXPRESS 3.1% 32.57 8
SIGHT SUCCESSLUCKY PATCHHOT KING PRAWNWELLINGTON — wonSKY FIELDSUPER WEALTHYSTRONGERCOMPUTER PATCHKURPANYLUCKY EXPRESS

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

2 29

PLACE

1 17.5

2 13.5

9 44

QUINELLA

2,9 338

QUINELLA PLACE

1,2 32.5

1,9 127.5

2,9 96

FORECAST

2,9 528

TIERCE

2,9,1 2,102

TRIO

1,2,9 466

FIRST 4

1,2,7,9 1,471

QUARTET

2,9,1,7 25,498

All pools (3 more)

3 PICK 1

A1 19.5

A2

A3

5TH DOUBLE

1/2,8 88

1/9 111.5

WINNING TRAINER

B3

B2 29

B4

B1