Sha Tin · 2022-05-29 · 12:46

Race 1

Class 4 WET SLOW 1650m 14 runners

Race 1 at Sha Tin on 2022-05-29 was Class 4 over 1650m, run on WET SLOW going. HANDSOME TWELVE, ridden by Z Purton and trained by T P Yung, won by 2-1/4, with SMART PATCH second and BLOTTING PAPER third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. Victory came as the 5.1 favourite.

Result

Official · 1.38.63

Pos	No.	Horse	Jockey	Trainer	Draw	Weight	Odds	Margin
1	1	HANDSOME TWELVE Closed strongly 1.38.63 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) Z Purton · T P Yung	Z Purton	T P Yung	12	133 lb	5.1	2-1/4
2	9	SMART PATCH Closed strongly B K Teetan · P O'Sullivan	K Teetan	P O'Sullivan	9	117 lb	7.3	2-1/4
3	4	BLOTTING PAPER TT B Shinn · R Gibson	B Shinn	R Gibson	7	129 lb	5.7	2-1/2
4	10	EL VALIENTE Closed strongly TT J Moreira · C Fownes	J Moreira	C Fownes	2	116 lb	5.7	4-1/2
5	2	RIGHTEOUS DOCTRINE Closed strongly B/XB L Currie · C W Chang	L Currie	C W Chang	10	133 lb	7.9	5
6	3	ROYAL CAMPBELL Closed strongly V L Hewitson · P F Yiu	L Hewitson	P F Yiu	13	131 lb	19.0	8-1/2
7	13	LAPUTA Closed strongly PC1/TT C Wong · K W Lui	C Wong	K W Lui	6	109 lb	64.0	8-1/2
8	14	LUCKY VICTOR B/TT A Badel · K H Ting	A Badel	K H Ting	14	114 lb	9.5	9-3/4
9	5	YEE CHEONG BRAVE Closed strongly H/TT A Hamelin · A T Millard	A Hamelin	A T Millard	11	123 lb	84.0	11-3/4
10	11	CROWN AVENUE Closed strongly V2 M F Poon · C H Yip	M F Poon	C H Yip	8	113 lb	22.0	13-1/2
11	6	GOOD BEAUTY Led early CP/TT V Borges · K L Man	V Borges	K L Man	1	119 lb	35.0	15-3/4
12	7	TEAM GOODLUCK CP/TT C Y Ho · W Y So	C Y Ho	W Y So	3	118 lb	10.0	17-1/2
13	8	NOBODY KNOWS M Chadwick · L Ho	M Chadwick	L Ho	4	117 lb	24.0	19-3/4
14	12	FANTASY SPRING B H T Mo · Y S Tsui	H T Mo	Y S Tsui	5	112 lb	85.0	33-1/2

Race shape

Beaten lengths

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2021-22

The model's top pick EL VALIENTE (27.3%) finished 4th — the winner HANDSOME TWELVE was rated #2. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.

Rank	No.	Horse	Win %	Rated price	Pos	Final odds
1	10	EL VALIENTE	27.3%	3.66	4	5.7
2	1	HANDSOME TWELVE	17.6%	5.68	1	5.1
3	4	BLOTTING PAPER	13.9%	7.19	3	5.7
4	11	CROWN AVENUE	6.4%	15.60	10	22.0
5	2	RIGHTEOUS DOCTRINE	6.0%	16.60	5	7.9
6	7	TEAM GOODLUCK	5.4%	18.49	12	10.0
7	9	SMART PATCH	4.1%	24.10	2	7.3
8	3	ROYAL CAMPBELL	3.8%	26.52	6	19.0
9	13	LAPUTA	3.7%	27.30	7	64.0
10	14	LUCKY VICTOR	3.5%	28.55	8	9.5
11	8	NOBODY KNOWS	3.2%	31.68	13	24.0
12	6	GOOD BEAUTY	3.1%	32.46	11	35.0
13	12	FANTASY SPRING	1.5%	66.05	14	85.0
14	5	YEE CHEONG BRAVE	0.5%	216.55	9	84.0

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

1 51.5

PLACE

1 21

4 19

9 27

QUINELLA

1,9 205

QUINELLA PLACE

1,4 54.5

1,9 78

4,9 70.5

FORECAST

1,9 444

TIERCE

1,9,4 1,263

TRIO

1,4,9 253

FIRST 4

1,4,9,10 314

QUARTET

1,9,4,10 6,815

All pools (1 more)

3 PICK 1

A1 31

A3 —

A2 —

Race 2 → This meeting Draw bias · Sha Tin 1650m Need this as data? Full results archive from $99