Skip to content

HKJC Guru is an independent statistics service and is not affiliated with, endorsed by, or connected to The Hong Kong Jockey Club.

Sha Tin · 2022-05-29 · 14:18

Race 4

Class 4 GOOD 1400m Course B 14 runners

Race 4 at Sha Tin on 2022-05-29 was Class 4 over 1400m, run on GOOD going. GRACYLOVE, ridden by L Ferraris and trained by D J Hall, won by 1-1/4, with CHIRON second and MILLENNIUM FALCON third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. The 4.5 favourite SUPER HIGHWAY finished 4th.

Result

Official · 1.22.64
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 5 GRACYLOVE Closed strongly V1 1.22.64 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) L Ferraris · D J Hall 1 15.0 1-1/4
2 14 CHIRON Closed strongly CP/TT V Borges · D A Hayes 10 33.0 1-1/4
3 2 MILLENNIUM FALCON H C L Chau · T P Yung 7 7.1 1-1/4
4 11 SUPER HIGHWAY Closed strongly CP/TT K Teetan · F C Lor 5 4.5 2
5 9 INDIGENOUS REALM Closed strongly H1/TT K C Leung · K L Man 13 62.0 2
6 8 NATURAL GOLD Led early SR/XB L Hewitson · D J Whyte 9 6.0 3-1/4
7 1 LIGHT OF WANSHI Closed strongly TT M Chadwick · W Y So 6 6.8 3-1/2
8 3 MARADO B R Maia · P O'Sullivan 4 13.0 3-3/4
9 12 MOERAKI B/TT C Y Ho · C W Chang 2 6.1 4-1/4
10 7 FOREVER GLORIOUS TT H Bentley · K W Lui 3 39.0 4-1/2
11 4 BEAUTY NOVA B J Moreira · J Size 8 18.0 5
12 6 MAXIMIZE HEART B- A Badel · C H Yip 12 14.0 6
13 13 MR ALDAN B/TT H W Lai · A S Cruz 14 59.0 12-1/4
14 10 ALL IS READY B/XB1 M F Poon · P F Yiu 11 40.0 12-1/4

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. GRACYLOVE2. CHIRON+1.25L3. MILLENNIUM FALCON+1.25L4. SUPER HIGHWAY+2L5. INDIGENOUS REALM+2L6. NATURAL GOLD+3.25L7. LIGHT OF WANSHI+3.5L8. MARADO+3.75L9. MOERAKI+4.25L10. FOREVER GLORIOUS+4.5L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2021-22
The model's top pick NATURAL GOLD (15.9%) finished 6th — the winner GRACYLOVE was rated #12. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 8 NATURAL GOLD 15.9% 6.30 6
2 1 LIGHT OF WANSHI 15.1% 6.61 7
3 12 MOERAKI 12.5% 8.02 9
4 11 SUPER HIGHWAY 11.6% 8.60 4
5 3 MARADO 8.5% 11.80 8
6 2 MILLENNIUM FALCON 7.2% 13.94 3
7 14 CHIRON 5.5% 18.05 2
8 6 MAXIMIZE HEART 5.4% 18.48 12
9 10 ALL IS READY 3.6% 27.47 14
10 4 BEAUTY NOVA 3.6% 27.86 11
11 9 INDIGENOUS REALM 3.5% 28.49 5
12 5 GRACYLOVE 2.7% 36.37 1
13 7 FOREVER GLORIOUS 2.5% 39.45 10
14 13 MR ALDAN 2.3% 43.77 13
NATURAL GOLDLIGHT OF WANSHIMOERAKISUPER HIGHWAYMARADOMILLENNIUM FALCONCHIRONMAXIMIZE HEARTALL IS READYBEAUTY NOVAINDIGENOUS REALMGRACYLOVE — wonFOREVER GLORIOUSMR ALDAN

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

5 150

PLACE

2 27

5 45.5

14 78

QUINELLA

5,14 2,041.5

QUINELLA PLACE

2,5 167.5

2,14 317.5

5,14 606

FORECAST

5,14 4,136

TIERCE

5,14,2 34,066

TRIO

2,5,14 4,276

FIRST 4

2,5,11,14 6,411

QUARTET

5,14,2,11 287,759

All pools (3 more)

1ST DOUBLE TRIO

2,8,10/2,5,14 213,593

3 PICK 1

A3 22.5

A1

A2

3RD DOUBLE

8/5 691

8/14 256.5