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Sha Tin · 2022-05-29 · 17:53

Race 10

Class 2 GOOD 1200m Course B 13 runners

Race 10 at Sha Tin on 2022-05-29 was Class 2 over 1200m, run on GOOD going. WINNING DREAMER, ridden by C Y Ho and trained by F C Lor, won by SH, with REWARDING TOGETHER second and TRILLION WIN third. The 5.5 favourite FANTASTIC TREASURE finished 6th.

Result

Official · 1.08.77
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 5 WINNING DREAMER 1.08.77 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) C Y Ho · F C Lor 12 50.0 SH
2 11 REWARDING TOGETHER B/TT M Chadwick · F C Lor 6 6.5 SH
3 1 TRILLION WIN B A Badel · K L Man 8 8.7 1
4 12 ROCK YA HEART TT K Teetan · K W Lui 4 5.6 1-1/4
5 4 VOYAGE WARRIOR L Hewitson · P F Yiu 2 6.4 1-3/4
6 3 FANTASTIC TREASURE TT B Shinn · D A Hayes 11 5.5 3-1/4
7 2 BLAZE WARRIOR B/TT A Hamelin · J Size 5 7.5 3-1/2
8 8 CALIFORNIA RAD B/TT M F Poon · A S Cruz 1 9.9 3-1/2
9 6 SCORES OF FUN TT L Currie · J Size 3 63.0 3-3/4
9 10 RED DESERT V Borges · J Size 13 89.0 3-3/4
11 13 KING LAND TT H T Mo · T P Yung 9 41.0 5-3/4
12 9 CZARSON CP/TT H Bentley · P F Yiu 7 39.0 7
13 7 PACKING VICTORY TT Z Purton · C S Shum 10 9.7 7-1/4

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. WINNING DREAMER2. REWARDING TOGETHER+0.1L3. TRILLION WIN+1L4. ROCK YA HEART+1.25L5. VOYAGE WARRIOR+1.75L6. FANTASTIC TREASURE+3.25L7. BLAZE WARRIOR+3.5L8. CALIFORNIA RAD+3.5L9. SCORES OF FUN+3.75L9. RED DESERT+3.75L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2021-22
The model's top pick PACKING VICTORY (23.8%) finished 13th — the winner WINNING DREAMER was rated #6. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 7 PACKING VICTORY 23.8% 4.21 13
2 11 REWARDING TOGETHER 20.9% 4.79 2
3 3 FANTASTIC TREASURE 11.9% 8.44 6
4 12 ROCK YA HEART 11.8% 8.44 4
5 2 BLAZE WARRIOR 7.6% 13.15 7
6 5 WINNING DREAMER 4.2% 23.61 1
7 1 TRILLION WIN 4.0% 25.05 3
8 6 SCORES OF FUN 3.5% 28.60 9
9 4 VOYAGE WARRIOR 3.4% 29.36 5
10 8 CALIFORNIA RAD 3.2% 31.52 8
11 9 CZARSON 2.3% 43.48 12
12 10 RED DESERT 1.9% 51.46 9
13 13 KING LAND 1.5% 65.64 11
PACKING VICTORYREWARDING TOGETHERFANTASTIC TREASUREROCK YA HEARTBLAZE WARRIORWINNING DREAMER — wonTRILLION WINSCORES OF FUNVOYAGE WARRIORCALIFORNIA RADCZARSONRED DESERTKING LAND

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

5 503.5

PLACE

1 27

5 112.5

11 25

QUINELLA

5,11 1,663

QUINELLA PLACE

1,5 573

1,11 104.5

5,11 486

FORECAST

5,11 3,936

TIERCE

5,11,1 32,067

TRIO

1,5,11 4,276

FIRST 4

1,5,11,12 5,025

QUARTET

5,11,1,12 142,256

All pools (5 more)

3 PICK 1

A2

A3 22

A1

3RD DOUBLE TRIO

2,8,14/1,5,11 259,771

9TH DOUBLE

2/5 7,697

2/11 269

SIX UP

7/2/6/6/2/5 3,150,758

7,10/2,8/6,7/1,6/2,14/5,11 6,368

2 [Z Purton]

TREBLE

6/2/5 84,984

6/2/11 2,299