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Sha Tin · 2022-06-25 · 16:38

Race 8

Class 3 GOOD (AWT) 1650m 13 runners

Race 8 at Sha Tin on 2022-06-25 was Class 3 over 1650m, run on GOOD (AWT) going. SO WE JOY, ridden by C Y Ho and trained by C W Chang, won by HD, with APACHE PASS second and CHANCHENG PRINCE third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. The 4.8 favourite AMAZING TEENS finished 6th.

Result

Official · 1.38.04
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 4 SO WE JOY Closed strongly H/XB/TT 1.38.04 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) C Y Ho · C W Chang 6 9.2 HD
2 1 APACHE PASS Closed strongly BO/XB K C Leung · P O'Sullivan 2 5.5 HD
3 3 CHANCHENG PRINCE XB/TT R Maia · K W Lui 8 21.0 3/4
4 12 HANDSOME TWELVE Closed strongly M Chadwick · T P Yung 7 6.2 2
5 8 TRUE LEGEND B K Teetan · F C Lor 9 8.9 2-1/2
6 10 AMAZING TEENS H/P/TT A Badel · J Size 3 4.8 2-1/2
7 7 DECRYPT Closed strongly TT B Shinn · D A Hayes 12 20.0 2-3/4
8 6 ULTRA EXPRESS Closed strongly B/TT C L Chau · A T Millard 11 17.0 5
9 14 SKYEY SUPREME Led early B/TT C Wong · K W Lui 1 9.6 5
10 13 VILLA FIONN Closed strongly B H T Mo · P F Yiu 5 81.0 8
11 9 HELENE WISDOM STAR Closed strongly CP/H/TT L Ferraris · A S Cruz 13 12.0 8-3/4
12 11 FLYING DRAGON H Bentley · C H Yip 4 21.0 10-1/4
13 2 RED DESERT A Hamelin · J Size 10 21.0 15-1/2
5 ROMANTIC COMBO Z Purton · C S Shum

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. SO WE JOY2. APACHE PASS+0.2L3. CHANCHENG PRINCE+0.75L4. HANDSOME TWELVE+2L5. TRUE LEGEND+2.5L6. AMAZING TEENS+2.5L7. DECRYPT+2.75L8. ULTRA EXPRESS+5L9. SKYEY SUPREME+5L10. VILLA FIONN+8L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2021-22
The model's top pick HANDSOME TWELVE (18.4%) finished 4th — the winner SO WE JOY was rated #4. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 12 HANDSOME TWELVE 18.4% 5.44 4
2 10 AMAZING TEENS 14.4% 6.94 6
3 8 TRUE LEGEND 11.6% 8.61 5
4 4 SO WE JOY 10.1% 9.92 1
5 1 APACHE PASS 10.1% 9.94 2
6 7 DECRYPT 7.0% 14.29 7
7 6 ULTRA EXPRESS 6.1% 16.36 8
8 3 CHANCHENG PRINCE 5.2% 19.13 3
9 11 FLYING DRAGON 4.4% 22.63 12
10 14 SKYEY SUPREME 3.8% 26.03 9
11 2 RED DESERT 3.5% 28.67 13
12 13 VILLA FIONN 3.2% 31.20 10
13 9 HELENE WISDOM STAR 2.2% 45.95 11
HANDSOME TWELVEAMAZING TEENSTRUE LEGENDSO WE JOY — wonAPACHE PASSDECRYPTULTRA EXPRESSCHANCHENG PRINCEFLYING DRAGONSKYEY SUPREMERED DESERTVILLA FIONNHELENE WISDOM STAR

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

4 92.5

PLACE

1 20

3 68.5

4 25

QUINELLA

1,4 153.5

QUINELLA PLACE

1,3 194

1,4 52

3,4 270

FORECAST

4,1 342

TIERCE

4,1,3 6,331

TRIO

1,3,4 972

FIRST 4

1,3,4,12 1,179

QUARTET

4,1,3,12 25,777

All pools (2 more)

3 PICK 1

A1

A2

A3 21

7TH DOUBLE

2/1 71

2/4 716