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Sha Tin · 2022-06-25 · 15:36

Race 6

Class 4 GOOD TO FIRM 1400m Course B 14 runners

Race 6 at Sha Tin on 2022-06-25 was Class 4 over 1400m, run on GOOD TO FIRM going. INDIGENOUS REALM, ridden by K C Leung and trained by K L Man, won by 1/2, with GOOD NEWS second and HAPPY DAILY third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. The 4.8 favourite HAPPY DAILY finished 3rd.

Result

Official · 1.22.13
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 8 INDIGENOUS REALM Closed strongly H/TT 1.22.13 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) K C Leung · K L Man 5 12.0 1/2
2 3 GOOD NEWS V-/B1/TT M F Poon · W Y So 1 13.0 1/2
3 2 HAPPY DAILY Closed strongly TT C L Chau · L Ho 3 4.8 3/4
4 7 GALLANT HERO Closed strongly CP-/TT1 L Ferraris · D J Hall 12 29.0 1-1/2
5 10 STAR CONTACT B/TT M Chadwick · D A Hayes 4 9.7 2
6 11 SUPER HIGHWAY Led early CP-/B1/H1/TT K Teetan · F C Lor 2 5.3 2-1/4
7 4 GANG OF BROTHERS B Z Purton · P O'Sullivan 9 5.7 3-3/4
8 13 GET THE MONIES Closed strongly C Y Ho · K W Lui 14 47.0 4
9 5 FIERY DIAMOND H Bentley · T P Yung 8 8.2 4-1/2
10 9 CONCERTO Closed strongly B/TT L Hewitson · K H Ting 11 164.0 7
11 14 POLARIS WINNER CP A Hamelin · A T Millard 10 83.0 7-1/2
12 1 PROSECCO A Badel · W Y So 7 7.1 7-1/2
13 6 PROTOSS SPIRIT TT1 B Shinn · C Fownes 6 25.0 8
14 12 ALL IS READY B-/XB- R Maia · P F Yiu 13 73.0 13-1/2

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. INDIGENOUS REALM2. GOOD NEWS+0.5L3. HAPPY DAILY+0.75L4. GALLANT HERO+1.5L5. STAR CONTACT+2L6. SUPER HIGHWAY+2.25L7. GANG OF BROTHERS+3.75L8. GET THE MONIES+4L9. FIERY DIAMOND+4.5L10. CONCERTO+7L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2021-22
The model's top pick GANG OF BROTHERS (21.4%) finished 7th — the winner INDIGENOUS REALM was rated #8. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 4 GANG OF BROTHERS 21.4% 4.67 7
2 11 SUPER HIGHWAY 14.9% 6.71 6
3 5 FIERY DIAMOND 10.9% 9.13 9
4 1 PROSECCO 9.8% 10.18 12
5 2 HAPPY DAILY 8.4% 11.89 3
6 10 STAR CONTACT 7.4% 13.56 5
7 6 PROTOSS SPIRIT 5.9% 17.05 13
8 8 INDIGENOUS REALM 4.9% 20.25 1
9 3 GOOD NEWS 4.7% 21.09 2
10 7 GALLANT HERO 3.8% 26.42 4
11 13 GET THE MONIES 3.1% 32.40 8
12 12 ALL IS READY 2.9% 34.58 14
13 14 POLARIS WINNER 1.3% 77.45 11
14 9 CONCERTO 0.6% 181.49 10
GANG OF BROTHERSSUPER HIGHWAYFIERY DIAMONDPROSECCOHAPPY DAILYSTAR CONTACTPROTOSS SPIRITINDIGENOUS REALM — wonGOOD NEWSGALLANT HEROGET THE MONIESALL IS READYPOLARIS WINNERCONCERTO

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

8 124.5

PLACE

2 16.5

3 39.5

8 37

QUINELLA

3,8 982

QUINELLA PLACE

2,3 113.5

2,8 115.5

3,8 280

FORECAST

8,3 2,247

TIERCE

8,3,2 12,058

TRIO

2,3,8 2,104

FIRST 4

2,3,7,8 6,906

QUARTET

8,3,2,7 161,058

All pools (3 more)

3 PICK 1

A2 25.5

A1

A3

5TH DOUBLE

14/3 726.5

14/8 1,522.5

TRIPLE TRIO (CONSOLATION)

4,11,12/Any Combination/Any Combination 1,882