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Sha Tin · 2022-06-25 · 13:01

Race 1

Class 5 GOOD TO FIRM 1200m Course B 14 runners

Race 1 at Sha Tin on 2022-06-25 was Class 5 over 1200m, run on GOOD TO FIRM going. GOLDEN MISSION, ridden by M Chadwick and trained by C W Chang, won by 3/4, with MOON PEAKS second and STAR OF RED third. The 4.6 favourite IRON KING finished 6th.

Result

Official · 1.09.55
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 13 GOLDEN MISSION B/TT2 1.09.55 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) M Chadwick · C W Chang 7 7.7 3/4
2 10 MOON PEAKS H-/B H W Lai · Y S Tsui 6 8.2 3/4
3 11 STAR OF RED B/TT H Bentley · T P Yung 8 21.0 1-1/4
4 12 FORTUNE HAPPINESS B R Maia · K W Lui 5 24.0 1-1/4
5 6 ERNEST FEELING B/TT K C Leung · R Gibson 1 5.0 2-3/4
6 2 IRON KING TT2 Z Purton · C H Yip 4 4.6 4-3/4
7 7 ALLOY KING CP A Hamelin · K H Ting 3 13.0 5-1/4
8 4 CIRCUIT SPIRITANTO M F Poon · K L Man 13 61.0 5-1/2
9 14 SUPER FLAMES V1/TT H T Mo · L Ho 2 41.0 5-3/4
10 8 TUNG HAYE HAYE B/XB/TT C Wong · C S Shum 11 111.0 6-1/4
11 3 MELBOURNE HALL H/XB A Badel · D J Hall 12 12.0 6-3/4
12 1 WHISKEY NEAT TT K H Chan · C Fownes 10 12.0 7-1/4
13 9 WITTY SCHOLAR B1 C L Chau · W Y So 9 24.0 10
14 5 SALUTATION SR/TT K Teetan · J Size 14 8.2 10-1/4
0 SUNNY BABY B Shinn · D A Hayes

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. GOLDEN MISSION2. MOON PEAKS+0.75L3. STAR OF RED+1.25L4. FORTUNE HAPPINESS+1.25L5. ERNEST FEELING+2.75L6. IRON KING+4.75L7. ALLOY KING+5.25L8. CIRCUIT SPIRITANTO+5.5L9. SUPER FLAMES+5.75L10. TUNG HAYE HAYE+6.25L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2021-22
The model's top pick ERNEST FEELING (21.4%) finished 5th — the winner GOLDEN MISSION was rated #6. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 6 ERNEST FEELING 21.4% 4.68 5
2 5 SALUTATION 14.9% 6.70 14
3 2 IRON KING 9.1% 11.02 6
4 3 MELBOURNE HALL 8.2% 12.20 11
5 7 ALLOY KING 7.8% 12.81 7
6 13 GOLDEN MISSION 6.2% 16.13 1
7 11 STAR OF RED 6.1% 16.41 3
8 12 FORTUNE HAPPINESS 6.0% 16.64 4
9 1 WHISKEY NEAT 5.9% 17.05 12
10 9 WITTY SCHOLAR 3.5% 28.27 13
11 4 CIRCUIT SPIRITANTO 3.4% 29.05 8
12 10 MOON PEAKS 3.3% 30.46 2
13 14 SUPER FLAMES 2.8% 35.54 9
14 8 TUNG HAYE HAYE 1.4% 72.84 10
ERNEST FEELINGSALUTATIONIRON KINGMELBOURNE HALLALLOY KINGGOLDEN MISSION — wonSTAR OF REDFORTUNE HAPPINESSWHISKEY NEATWITTY SCHOLARCIRCUIT SPIRITANTOMOON PEAKSSUPER FLAMESTUNG HAYE HAYE

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

13 77.5

PLACE

10 26

11 58

13 29

QUINELLA

10,13 240.5

QUINELLA PLACE

10,11 255

10,13 85.5

11,13 284

FORECAST

13,10 559

TIERCE

13,10,11 8,514

TRIO

10,11,13 2,073

FIRST 4

10,11,12,13 8,224

QUARTET

13,10,11,12 137,728

All pools (1 more)

3 PICK 1

A3

A2 24.5

A1