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Sha Tin · 2022-06-25 · 15:03

Race 5

Class 4 GOOD TO FIRM 1800m Course B 13 runners

Result

Official · 1.48.55
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 0 CORDYCEPS TWO Closed strongly XB1 1.48.55 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) R Maia · C H Yip 2 14.0 N
3 0 CHATER PINS Closed strongly SR M Chadwick · D A Hayes 11 32.0 3/4
4 0 LUCKY MISSILE Led early CP L Ferraris · D J Hall 7 19.0 3/4
5 0 PAKISTAN FRIEND Closed strongly TT A Badel · W Y So 6 8.2 1-1/2
6 0 BORN THE SAME DAY Closed strongly H/TT1 C L Chau · K W Lui 3 20.0 2
6 0 SHANGHAI DRAGON B M F Poon · T P Yung 10 20.0 2
8 0 RIGHT AS RAIN Closed strongly CP Z Purton · C W Chang 4 2.7 3
9 0 SMILING TIME Closed strongly V/TT B Shinn · K H Ting 9 15.0 4
10 0 VUKAN B/XB C Y Ho · P O'Sullivan 14 8.5 4-1/4
11 0 CHEERY B K C Leung · P F Yiu 12 7.9 5-1/4
12 0 RED ELYSEES B/TT H Bentley · K L Man 13 39.0 7-1/4
13 0 JOYFUL HEART CP/TT K Teetan · F C Lor 1 10.0 9-3/4
14 0 DAILY CHARM B/TT L Hewitson · C S Shum 8 49.0 11-1/4
— 0 SUPER HONG KONG Closed strongly B/TT A Hamelin · A T Millard — 33.0 N

This site does not show odds as they change: the odds here are final prices after a race, or overnight prices before it.

Race 5 at Sha Tin on 2022-06-25 was Class 4 over 1800m, run on GOOD TO FIRM going. CORDYCEPS TWO, ridden by R Maia and trained by C H Yip, won by N, with CHATER PINS second and LUCKY MISSILE third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. The 2.7 favourite RIGHT AS RAIN finished 8th.

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. CORDYCEPS TWO—3. CHATER PINS+0.75L4. LUCKY MISSILE+0.75L5. PAKISTAN FRIEND+1.5L6. BORN THE SAME DAY+2L6. SHANGHAI DRAGON+2L8. RIGHT AS RAIN+3L9. SMILING TIME+4L10. VUKAN+4.25L11. CHEERY+5.25L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2021-22
The model's top pick RIGHT AS RAIN (26.2%) finished 8th — the winner CORDYCEPS TWO was rated #14. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 0 RIGHT AS RAIN 26.2% 3.82 8
2 0 JOYFUL HEART 10.6% 9.42 13
3 0 CHEERY 9.9% 10.08 11
4 0 LUCKY MISSILE 6.0% 16.60 4
5 0 CHATER PINS 5.5% 18.04 3
6 0 RED ELYSEES 5.4% 18.42 12
7 0 PAKISTAN FRIEND 5.4% 18.47 5
8 0 SUPER HONG KONG 5.3% 18.88 —
9 0 VUKAN 5.1% 19.63 10
10 0 BORN THE SAME DAY 4.8% 20.72 6
11 0 DAILY CHARM 4.6% 21.78 14
12 0 SHANGHAI DRAGON 3.9% 25.51 6
13 0 SMILING TIME 3.9% 25.71 9
14 0 CORDYCEPS TWO 3.2% 30.79 1
RIGHT AS RAINJOYFUL HEARTCHEERYLUCKY MISSILECHATER PINSRED ELYSEESPAKISTAN FRIENDSUPER HONG KONGVUKANBORN THE SAME DAYDAILY CHARMSHANGHAI DRAGONSMILING TIMECORDYCEPS TWO — won

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

14 149.5

PLACE

8 81

13 84.5

14 50.5

QUINELLA

8,14 2,016.5

QUINELLA PLACE

8,13 933

8,14 590

13,14 558.5

FORECAST

14,8 4,992

TIERCE

14,8,13 63,094

TRIO

8,13,14 12,449

FIRST 4

8,10,13,14 37,934

QUARTET

14,8,13,10 1,064,374

All pools (2 more)

3 PICK 1

A1 —

A3 19.5

A2 —

4TH DOUBLE

11/8 1,441

11/14 7,529