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Sha Tin · 2022-06-25 · 15:03

Race 5

Class 4 GOOD TO FIRM 1800m Course B 14 runners

Race 5 at Sha Tin on 2022-06-25 was Class 4 over 1800m, run on GOOD TO FIRM going. CORDYCEPS TWO, ridden by R Maia and trained by C H Yip, won by N, with SUPER HONG KONG second and CHATER PINS third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. The 2.7 favourite RIGHT AS RAIN finished 8th.

Result

Official · 1.48.55
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 14 CORDYCEPS TWO Closed strongly XB1 1.48.55 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) R Maia · C H Yip 2 14.0 N
2 8 SUPER HONG KONG Closed strongly B/TT A Hamelin · A T Millard 5 33.0 N
3 13 CHATER PINS Closed strongly SR M Chadwick · D A Hayes 11 32.0 3/4
4 10 LUCKY MISSILE Led early CP L Ferraris · D J Hall 7 19.0 3/4
5 7 PAKISTAN FRIEND Closed strongly TT A Badel · W Y So 6 8.2 1-1/2
6 1 BORN THE SAME DAY Closed strongly H/TT1 C L Chau · K W Lui 3 20.0 2
6 4 SHANGHAI DRAGON B M F Poon · T P Yung 10 20.0 2
8 5 RIGHT AS RAIN Closed strongly CP Z Purton · C W Chang 4 2.7 3
9 2 SMILING TIME Closed strongly V/TT B Shinn · K H Ting 9 15.0 4
10 11 VUKAN B/XB C Y Ho · P O'Sullivan 14 8.5 4-1/4
11 3 CHEERY B K C Leung · P F Yiu 12 7.9 5-1/4
12 6 RED ELYSEES B/TT H Bentley · K L Man 13 39.0 7-1/4
13 9 JOYFUL HEART CP/TT K Teetan · F C Lor 1 10.0 9-3/4
14 12 DAILY CHARM B/TT L Hewitson · C S Shum 8 49.0 11-1/4

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. CORDYCEPS TWO2. SUPER HONG KONG+0.05L3. CHATER PINS+0.75L4. LUCKY MISSILE+0.75L5. PAKISTAN FRIEND+1.5L6. BORN THE SAME DAY+2L6. SHANGHAI DRAGON+2L8. RIGHT AS RAIN+3L9. SMILING TIME+4L10. VUKAN+4.25L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2021-22
The model's top pick RIGHT AS RAIN (26.2%) finished 8th — the winner CORDYCEPS TWO was rated #14. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 5 RIGHT AS RAIN 26.2% 3.82 8
2 9 JOYFUL HEART 10.6% 9.42 13
3 3 CHEERY 9.9% 10.08 11
4 10 LUCKY MISSILE 6.0% 16.60 4
5 13 CHATER PINS 5.5% 18.04 3
6 6 RED ELYSEES 5.4% 18.42 12
7 7 PAKISTAN FRIEND 5.4% 18.47 5
8 8 SUPER HONG KONG 5.3% 18.88 2
9 11 VUKAN 5.1% 19.63 10
10 1 BORN THE SAME DAY 4.8% 20.72 6
11 12 DAILY CHARM 4.6% 21.78 14
12 4 SHANGHAI DRAGON 3.9% 25.51 6
13 2 SMILING TIME 3.9% 25.71 9
14 14 CORDYCEPS TWO 3.2% 30.79 1
RIGHT AS RAINJOYFUL HEARTCHEERYLUCKY MISSILECHATER PINSRED ELYSEESPAKISTAN FRIENDSUPER HONG KONGVUKANBORN THE SAME DAYDAILY CHARMSHANGHAI DRAGONSMILING TIMECORDYCEPS TWO — won

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

14 149.5

PLACE

8 81

13 84.5

14 50.5

QUINELLA

8,14 2,016.5

QUINELLA PLACE

8,13 933

8,14 590

13,14 558.5

FORECAST

14,8 4,992

TIERCE

14,8,13 63,094

TRIO

8,13,14 12,449

FIRST 4

8,10,13,14 37,934

QUARTET

14,8,13,10 1,064,374

All pools (2 more)

3 PICK 1

A2

A1

A3 19.5

4TH DOUBLE

11/8 1,441

11/14 7,529