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Sha Tin · 2022-07-01 · 13:01

Race 1

Class 5 GOOD 1200m Course C 12 runners

Race 1 at Sha Tin on 2022-07-01 was Class 5 over 1200m, run on GOOD going. M M JOHNNY, ridden by M Chadwick and trained by K L Man, won by N, with THETA HEDGE second and G ONE EXCELLENT third. The 5.0 favourite G ONE EXCELLENT finished 3rd.

Result

Official · 1.10.57
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 11 M M JOHNNY B 1.10.57 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) M Chadwick · K L Man 11 13.0 N
2 2 THETA HEDGE H/V1/TT H Bentley · K W Lui 3 18.0 N
3 6 G ONE EXCELLENT V/TT R Maia · C H Yip 1 5.0 1
4 9 FORTUNE HERO B/TT L Hewitson · R Gibson 9 27.0 1
5 3 STRIVE FOR GLORY P/TT Z Purton · W Y So 10 5.5 2-1/4
6 1 THE MULTIPLIER CP/TT B Shinn · D A Hayes 2 7.7 2-1/2
7 10 GIVE WAY PLEASE CP1/H1/XB2/TT A Hamelin · K H Ting 7 19.0 2-3/4
8 7 STEEL WIN V1/TT1 L Currie · C W Chang 4 19.0 3-1/4
9 8 KING'S TROOPER TT C Y Ho · P F Yiu 6 15.0 3-1/4
10 4 STAR OF WUYI B/TT- K Teetan · Y S Tsui 12 5.5 4-1/4
11 5 CHIU CHOW BROTHER B C L Chau · T P Yung 5 8.2 4-3/4
12 12 E HONEY M F Poon · C Fownes 8 15.0 6-1/2

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. M M JOHNNY2. THETA HEDGE+0.05L3. G ONE EXCELLENT+1L4. FORTUNE HERO+1L5. STRIVE FOR GLORY+2.25L6. THE MULTIPLIER+2.5L7. GIVE WAY PLEASE+2.75L8. STEEL WIN+3.25L9. KING'S TROOPER+3.25L10. STAR OF WUYI+4.25L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2021-22
The model's top pick G ONE EXCELLENT (15.2%) finished 3rd — the winner M M JOHNNY was rated #7. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 6 G ONE EXCELLENT 15.2% 6.58 3
2 3 STRIVE FOR GLORY 14.1% 7.11 5
3 1 THE MULTIPLIER 12.7% 7.87 6
4 5 CHIU CHOW BROTHER 8.5% 11.70 11
5 12 E HONEY 7.5% 13.33 12
6 9 FORTUNE HERO 7.1% 14.06 4
7 11 M M JOHNNY 6.9% 14.56 1
8 4 STAR OF WUYI 6.4% 15.51 10
9 2 THETA HEDGE 5.5% 18.32 2
10 7 STEEL WIN 5.4% 18.38 8
11 8 KING'S TROOPER 5.4% 18.39 9
12 10 GIVE WAY PLEASE 5.2% 19.20 7
G ONE EXCELLENTSTRIVE FOR GLORYTHE MULTIPLIERCHIU CHOW BROTHERE HONEYFORTUNE HEROM M JOHNNY — wonSTAR OF WUYITHETA HEDGESTEEL WINKING'S TROOPERGIVE WAY PLEASE

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

11 131

PLACE

2 47.5

6 18

11 44

QUINELLA

2,11 1,278

QUINELLA PLACE

2,6 139.5

2,11 366.5

6,11 128.5

FORECAST

11,2 2,418

TIERCE

11,2,6 13,861

TRIO

2,6,11 2,024

FIRST 4

2,6,9,11 10,279

QUARTET

11,2,6,9 277,334

All pools (1 more)

3 PICK 1

A3 25

A1

A2