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Sha Tin · 2022-07-01 · 13:31

Race 2

Class 4 GOOD TO YIELDING 1200m Course C 12 runners

Race 2 at Sha Tin on 2022-07-01 was Class 4 over 1200m, run on GOOD TO YIELDING going. SUPER SUNNY SING, ridden by J Moreira and trained by W Y So, won by 2-1/2, with REGENT GLORY second and SIXTH GENERATION third. The 3.4 favourite E BROTHER finished 9th.

Result

Official · 1.12.38
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 8 SUPER SUNNY SING H1 1.12.38 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) J Moreira · W Y So 10 8.9 2-1/2
2 9 REGENT GLORY L Currie · D A Hayes 2 7.6 2-1/2
3 12 SIXTH GENERATION B- L Hewitson · C H Yip 1 6.6 2-1/2
4 6 OVER THE MOON B/TT A Badel · C Fownes 3 18.0 2-3/4
5 4 COUNTRY TREASURE B1/H1 A Hamelin · J Size 11 24.0 2-3/4
6 2 RIVER VIEWS H Bentley · T P Yung 9 8.2 3-1/2
7 5 MIRACULOUS HONOUR H1 H W Lai · Y S Tsui 6 47.0 3-3/4
8 3 ADEFILL CP/TT- C Y Ho · P F Yiu 5 6.2 4-1/4
9 10 E BROTHER B/TT Z Purton · K L Man 4 3.4 6-1/4
10 11 HAPPY FAT CAT K Teetan · A T Millard 7 9.7 13
11 7 SMILING MOON M L Yeung · K H Ting 12 79.0 14-3/4
12 1 RECIPROCATION XB/B1/TT R Maia · R Gibson 8 60.0 15

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. SUPER SUNNY SING2. REGENT GLORY+2.5L3. SIXTH GENERATION+2.5L4. OVER THE MOON+2.75L5. COUNTRY TREASURE+2.75L6. RIVER VIEWS+3.5L7. MIRACULOUS HONOUR+3.75L8. ADEFILL+4.25L9. E BROTHER+6.25L10. HAPPY FAT CAT+13L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2021-22
The model's top pick E BROTHER (30.0%) finished 9th — the winner SUPER SUNNY SING was rated #5. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 10 E BROTHER 30.0% 3.33 9
2 9 REGENT GLORY 13.3% 7.54 2
3 3 ADEFILL 12.8% 7.83 8
4 11 HAPPY FAT CAT 7.9% 12.72 10
5 8 SUPER SUNNY SING 7.2% 13.99 1
6 12 SIXTH GENERATION 7.0% 14.29 3
7 6 OVER THE MOON 6.9% 14.50 4
8 2 RIVER VIEWS 5.6% 17.97 6
9 4 COUNTRY TREASURE 4.5% 22.12 5
10 7 SMILING MOON 2.5% 40.63 11
11 5 MIRACULOUS HONOUR 1.6% 63.24 7
12 1 RECIPROCATION 0.9% 105.48 12
E BROTHERREGENT GLORYADEFILLHAPPY FAT CATSUPER SUNNY SING — wonSIXTH GENERATIONOVER THE MOONRIVER VIEWSCOUNTRY TREASURESMILING MOONMIRACULOUS HONOURRECIPROCATION

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

8 89

PLACE

8 30.5

9 21

12 20.5

QUINELLA

8,9 374

QUINELLA PLACE

8,9 130

8,12 132.5

9,12 65

FORECAST

8,9 758

TIERCE

8,9,12 6,170

TRIO

8,9,12 746

FIRST 4

6,8,9,12 2,874

QUARTET

8,9,12,6 71,502

All pools (2 more)

1ST DOUBLE

11/8 1,332

11/9 153.5

3 PICK 1

A3

A1

A2 30