Sha Tin · 2022-07-01 · 14:01

Race 3

Class 2 YIELDING 1800m Course C 9 runners

Race 3 at Sha Tin on 2022-07-01 was Class 2 over 1800m, run on YIELDING going. BOURBONAIRE, ridden by A Badel and trained by J Size, won by 6, with MONEY CATCHER second and RUNNING GLORY third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. The 3.3 favourite SIGHT SPIRIT finished 4th.

Result

Official · 1.51.00

Pos	No.	Horse	Jockey	Trainer	Draw	Weight	Odds	Margin
1	8	BOURBONAIRE Closed strongly H 1.51.00 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) A Badel · J Size	A Badel	J Size	5	121 lb	3.7	6
2	1	MONEY CATCHER Led early CP-/B1 M Chadwick · F C Lor	M Chadwick	F C Lor	7	132 lb	8.2	6
3	5	RUNNING GLORY Closed strongly A Hamelin · J Size	A Hamelin	J Size	6	128 lb	6.0	6-3/4
4	9	SIGHT SPIRIT J Moreira · J Size	J Moreira	J Size	8	120 lb	3.3	7-1/2
5	2	CALIFORNIA TEN B/TT K Teetan · A S Cruz	K Teetan	A S Cruz	2	131 lb	11.0	9-1/2
6	3	BELUGA H Z Purton · D J Hall	Z Purton	D J Hall	3	130 lb	8.2	9-3/4
7	7	FLYING QUEST B H T Mo · D J Hall	H T Mo	D J Hall	1	121 lb	23.0	13-3/4
8	6	TIANCHI MONSTER C Y Ho · W Y So	C Y Ho	W Y So	4	124 lb	22.0	19-1/4
9	4	CELESTIAL POWER V M F Poon · F C Lor	M F Poon	F C Lor	9	128 lb	17.0	31-3/4

Race shape

Beaten lengths

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2021-22

The model's top pick SIGHT SPIRIT (22.7%) finished 4th — the winner BOURBONAIRE was rated #4. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.

Rank	No.	Horse	Win %	Rated price	Pos	Final odds
1	9	SIGHT SPIRIT	22.7%	4.41	4	3.3
2	1	MONEY CATCHER	19.7%	5.08	2	8.2
3	3	BELUGA	18.5%	5.39	6	8.2
4	8	BOURBONAIRE	11.6%	8.59	1	3.7
5	5	RUNNING GLORY	8.2%	12.17	3	6.0
6	4	CELESTIAL POWER	5.4%	18.64	9	17.0
7	6	TIANCHI MONSTER	5.3%	18.71	8	22.0
8	2	CALIFORNIA TEN	4.5%	22.18	5	11.0
9	7	FLYING QUEST	4.0%	25.14	7	23.0

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

8 37

PLACE

1 26

5 17.5

8 14.5

QUINELLA

1,8 138

QUINELLA PLACE

1,5 70.5

1,8 51

5,8 34.5

FORECAST

8,1 260

TIERCE

8,1,5 846

TRIO

1,5,8 192

FIRST 4

1,5,8,9 110

QUARTET

8,1,5,9 2,568

All pools (2 more)

2ND DOUBLE

8/1 132

8/8 341.5

3 PICK 1

A2 —

A1 25.5

A3 —

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