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Sha Tin · 2022-07-01 · 15:02

Race 5

Class 4 YIELDING 1000m Course C 14 runners

Race 5 at Sha Tin on 2022-07-01 was Class 4 over 1000m, run on YIELDING going. SPARKLING DOLPHIN, ridden by H T Mo and trained by Y S Tsui, won by 1/2, with FORTE second and WE ARE HERO third. The 5.2 favourite FORTE finished 2nd.

Result

Official · 0.58.09
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 9 SPARKLING DOLPHIN 0.58.09 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) H T Mo · Y S Tsui 11 18.0 1/2
2 1 FORTE XB/CP1/TT Z Purton · D A Hayes 10 5.2 1/2
3 2 WE ARE HERO B1 M Chadwick · K L Man 9 8.0 1
4 4 UNITED WE STAND B/TT C Y Ho · P O'Sullivan 12 10.0 2
5 11 HAPPY TRIO B-/SR2 L Hewitson · D J Whyte 14 7.0 2-3/4
6 10 KOWLOON EAST STAR H/SR/TT R Maia · K H Ting 3 23.0 3-3/4
7 7 CRACK ON B Shinn · R Gibson 6 14.0 3-3/4
8 12 SHINING FORTUNE H- A Badel · J Size 7 17.0 5-1/2
9 5 FLYING HIGH TT K Teetan · W Y So 1 10.0 5-3/4
10 6 LUCKY GOR B/H/TT J Moreira · C Fownes 4 7.3 9-3/4
11 8 GOLDEN FAIRY XB1 C L Chau · A T Millard 8 116.0 10-3/4
12 3 AMAZING ROCKY H M F Poon · T P Yung 13 6.5 10-3/4
13 13 JACK WIN B/H1/TT L Ferraris · A S Cruz 5 41.0 10-3/4
14 14 MANY WINS B K H Chan · K W Lui 2 178.0 11-1/4

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. SPARKLING DOLPHIN2. FORTE+0.5L3. WE ARE HERO+1L4. UNITED WE STAND+2L5. HAPPY TRIO+2.75L6. KOWLOON EAST STAR+3.75L7. CRACK ON+3.75L8. SHINING FORTUNE+5.5L9. FLYING HIGH+5.75L10. LUCKY GOR+9.75L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2021-22
The model's top pick LUCKY GOR (20.5%) finished 10th — the winner SPARKLING DOLPHIN was rated #12. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 6 LUCKY GOR 20.5% 4.87 10
2 1 FORTE 18.3% 5.46 2
3 5 FLYING HIGH 13.8% 7.24 9
4 3 AMAZING ROCKY 9.0% 11.08 12
5 11 HAPPY TRIO 8.0% 12.55 5
6 7 CRACK ON 5.9% 16.82 7
7 4 UNITED WE STAND 5.0% 19.86 4
8 12 SHINING FORTUNE 4.7% 21.48 8
9 10 KOWLOON EAST STAR 3.9% 25.78 6
10 2 WE ARE HERO 3.3% 30.14 3
11 8 GOLDEN FAIRY 2.9% 34.28 11
12 9 SPARKLING DOLPHIN 2.3% 42.61 1
13 13 JACK WIN 1.4% 71.36 13
14 14 MANY WINS 0.8% 119.95 14
LUCKY GORFORTEFLYING HIGHAMAZING ROCKYHAPPY TRIOCRACK ONUNITED WE STANDSHINING FORTUNEKOWLOON EAST STARWE ARE HEROGOLDEN FAIRYSPARKLING DOLPHIN — wonJACK WINMANY WINS

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

9 180.5

PLACE

1 19

2 33.5

9 57

QUINELLA

1,9 538

QUINELLA PLACE

1,2 97

1,9 195.5

2,9 281

FORECAST

9,1 1,500

TIERCE

9,1,2 12,892

TRIO

1,2,9 1,511

FIRST 4

1,2,4,9 3,533

QUARTET

9,1,2,4 96,951

All pools (2 more)

3 PICK 1

A2

A3 20.5

A1

4TH DOUBLE

14/1 110.5

14/9 922.5