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Sha Tin · 2022-07-01 · 16:43

Race 8

Class 4 YIELDING TO SOFT 1200m Course C 12 runners

Race 8 at Sha Tin on 2022-07-01 was Class 4 over 1200m, run on YIELDING TO SOFT going. ROYAL AGILITY, ridden by L Hewitson and trained by Y S Tsui, won by 4-3/4, with SMART FOLKS second and BEAUTY TYCOON third. The 1.9 favourite BEAUTY TYCOON finished 3rd.

Result

Official · 1.12.34
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 10 ROYAL AGILITY B/TT 1.12.34 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) L Hewitson · Y S Tsui 12 11.0 4-3/4
2 12 SMART FOLKS B K Teetan · C W Chang 10 8.8 4-3/4
3 1 BEAUTY TYCOON Z Purton · J Size 4 1.9 5-3/4
4 2 TRUST ME H C Wong · C H Yip 9 31.0 6-3/4
5 9 SPICY SKEWER CP M Chadwick · K L Man 7 69.0 7-3/4
6 7 ONE FOR ALL CP1/TT R Maia · R Gibson 3 16.0 8
7 5 SON PAK FU CP1 C L Chau · T P Yung 11 55.0 8-1/4
8 3 AMAZING INNOVATOR TT B Shinn · C Fownes 5 6.7 9
9 8 TO INFINITY M F Poon · P O'Sullivan 6 128.0 11
10 6 SPARTAN MISSILE L Ferraris · D J Hall 1 6.8 19
11 4 BRAVE STAR H1/SR1 C Y Ho · K W Lui 2 23.0 20-1/4
12 11 DIVINE ERA TT M L Yeung · K H Ting 8 47.0 20-3/4

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. ROYAL AGILITY2. SMART FOLKS+4.75L3. BEAUTY TYCOON+5.75L4. TRUST ME+6.75L5. SPICY SKEWER+7.75L6. ONE FOR ALL+8L7. SON PAK FU+8.25L8. AMAZING INNOVATOR+9L9. TO INFINITY+11L10. SPARTAN MISSILE+19L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2021-22
The model's top pick BEAUTY TYCOON (39.5%) finished 3rd — the winner ROYAL AGILITY was rated #4. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 1 BEAUTY TYCOON 39.5% 2.53 3
2 6 SPARTAN MISSILE 20.8% 4.81 10
3 3 AMAZING INNOVATOR 10.4% 9.65 8
4 10 ROYAL AGILITY 6.3% 15.91 1
5 4 BRAVE STAR 5.2% 19.08 11
6 12 SMART FOLKS 5.2% 19.10 2
7 5 SON PAK FU 4.9% 20.53 7
8 2 TRUST ME 2.4% 41.26 4
9 7 ONE FOR ALL 2.0% 51.25 6
10 11 DIVINE ERA 1.9% 53.16 12
11 9 SPICY SKEWER 0.8% 127.18 5
12 8 TO INFINITY 0.7% 151.55 9
BEAUTY TYCOONSPARTAN MISSILEAMAZING INNOVATORROYAL AGILITY — wonBRAVE STARSMART FOLKSSON PAK FUTRUST MEONE FOR ALLDIVINE ERASPICY SKEWERTO INFINITY

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

10 118

PLACE

1 10.5

10 26.5

12 28

QUINELLA

10,12 428.5

QUINELLA PLACE

1,10 45

1,12 40

10,12 109.5

FORECAST

10,12 715

TIERCE

10,12,1 2,114

TRIO

1,10,12 267

FIRST 4

1,2,10,12 1,008

QUARTET

10,12,1,2 32,293

All pools (2 more)

3 PICK 1

A1

A3 35.5

A2

7TH DOUBLE

4/10 2,890.5

4/12 434