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Sha Tin · 2022-07-01 · 16:08

Race 7

Class 1 YIELDING TO SOFT 1200m Course C 10 runners

Race 7 at Sha Tin on 2022-07-01 was Class 1 over 1200m, run on YIELDING TO SOFT going. DUKE WAI, ridden by C L Chau and trained by P O'Sullivan, won by N, with WINNING DREAMER second and BLAZE WARRIOR third. The 4.1 favourite NERVOUS WITNESS finished 5th.

Result

Official · 1.12.44
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 4 DUKE WAI B/H 1.12.44 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) C L Chau · P O'Sullivan 7 23.0 N
2 8 WINNING DREAMER C Y Ho · F C Lor 4 7.2 N
3 9 BLAZE WARRIOR B/TT K Teetan · J Size 5 7.8 1-3/4
4 7 TRILLION WIN B A Badel · K L Man 11 7.3 2-3/4
5 3 NERVOUS WITNESS XB Z Purton · D A Hayes 9 4.1 3-3/4
6 2 MASTER EIGHT J Moreira · F C Lor 6 7.1 10-3/4
7 10 GRATEFUL HEART CP/TT L Currie · C S Shum 2 66.0 13-1/4
8 11 KA YING MASTER TT H Bentley · T P Yung 10 16.0 14-1/4
9 1 LUCKY EXPRESS B/E/TT A Hamelin · J Size 3 14.0 17-1/2
10 6 CAMPIONE TT M F Poon · A S Cruz 1 4.2 20-1/4
5 HARMONY AND RICH H T Mo · Y S Tsui

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. DUKE WAI2. WINNING DREAMER+0.05L3. BLAZE WARRIOR+1.75L4. TRILLION WIN+2.75L5. NERVOUS WITNESS+3.75L6. MASTER EIGHT+10.75L7. GRATEFUL HEART+13.25L8. KA YING MASTER+14.25L9. LUCKY EXPRESS+17.5L10. CAMPIONE+20.25L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2021-22
The model's top pick MASTER EIGHT (27.0%) finished 6th — the winner DUKE WAI was rated #9. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 2 MASTER EIGHT 27.0% 3.71 6
2 6 CAMPIONE 20.4% 4.89 10
3 3 NERVOUS WITNESS 17.2% 5.82 5
4 9 BLAZE WARRIOR 13.0% 7.69 3
5 7 TRILLION WIN 6.0% 16.62 4
6 8 WINNING DREAMER 4.8% 21.00 2
7 1 LUCKY EXPRESS 4.1% 24.56 9
8 11 KA YING MASTER 3.1% 32.69 8
9 4 DUKE WAI 2.5% 39.33 1
10 10 GRATEFUL HEART 1.9% 51.87 7
MASTER EIGHTCAMPIONENERVOUS WITNESSBLAZE WARRIORTRILLION WINWINNING DREAMERLUCKY EXPRESSKA YING MASTERDUKE WAI — wonGRATEFUL HEART

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

4 238.5

PLACE

4 56.5

8 26

9 23

QUINELLA

4,8 803.5

QUINELLA PLACE

4,8 213

4,9 200

8,9 91.5

FORECAST

4,8 2,410

TIERCE

4,8,9 9,890

TRIO

4,8,9 1,115

FIRST 4

4,7,8,9 2,110

QUARTET

4,8,9,7 67,732

All pools (4 more)

2ND DOUBLE TRIO

2,8,12/4,8,9 503,208

3 PICK 1

A1

A3 25.5

A2

6TH DOUBLE

12/4 2,893

12/8 168

WINNING TRAINER

B3 13.5

B2

B1