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Sha Tin · 2022-10-01 · 13:01

Race 1

Class 5 GOOD 1800m Course C+3 11 runners

Result

Official · 1.47.61
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 0 OWNERS' STAR Closed strongly B 1.47.61 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) V Borges · W Y So 3 14.0 N
2 0 THIS IS CHARISMA Closed strongly CP/TT Z Purton · D J Hall 5 3.1 N
3 0 SUPERB DADDY Closed strongly TT C L Chau · Y S Tsui 1 17.0 1/2
4 0 AMAZING NEWS Closed strongly PC/XB C Y Ho · C Fownes 2 6.7 3
5 0 TURF BRILLIANT B M Chadwick · W Y So 4 4.4 5
6 0 YEE CHEONG BRAVE Closed strongly TT K C Leung · A T Millard 6 30.0 5-1/2
7 0 EL JEFE Closed strongly A Badel · C H Yip 7 12.0 7-1/4
8 0 WINNING STEED Closed strongly B/TT L Ferraris · C H Yip 8 12.0 7-3/4
9 0 MISTER MONTE B Y L Chung · C W Chang 9 8.7 10-3/4
10 0 WAH MAY LUCK Led early B H N Wong · Y S Tsui 11 27.0 12-1/4
11 0 COURAGEOUS KNIGHT SR/B2/TT L Hewitson · C S Shum 10 20.0 15-1/2

This site does not show odds as they change: the odds here are final prices after a race, or overnight prices before it.

Race 1 at Sha Tin on 2022-10-01 was Class 5 over 1800m, run on GOOD going. OWNERS' STAR, ridden by V Borges and trained by W Y So, won by N, with THIS IS CHARISMA second and SUPERB DADDY third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. The 3.1 favourite THIS IS CHARISMA finished 2nd.

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. OWNERS' STAR—2. THIS IS CHARISMA+0.05L3. SUPERB DADDY+0.5L4. AMAZING NEWS+3L5. TURF BRILLIANT+5L6. YEE CHEONG BRAVE+5.5L7. EL JEFE+7.25L8. WINNING STEED+7.75L9. MISTER MONTE+10.75L10. WAH MAY LUCK+12.25L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2022-23
The model's top pick THIS IS CHARISMA (29.2%) finished 2nd — the winner OWNERS' STAR was rated #3. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 0 THIS IS CHARISMA 29.2% 3.43 2
2 0 AMAZING NEWS 12.6% 7.92 4
3 0 OWNERS' STAR 10.6% 9.43 1
4 0 TURF BRILLIANT 9.2% 10.89 5
5 0 SUPERB DADDY 8.1% 12.31 3
6 0 EL JEFE 7.9% 12.70 7
7 0 WINNING STEED 6.5% 15.47 8
8 0 MISTER MONTE 5.1% 19.51 9
9 0 WAH MAY LUCK 4.3% 23.25 10
10 0 COURAGEOUS KNIGHT 4.0% 24.75 11
11 0 YEE CHEONG BRAVE 2.5% 40.20 6
THIS IS CHARISMAAMAZING NEWSOWNERS' STAR — wonTURF BRILLIANTSUPERB DADDYEL JEFEWINNING STEEDMISTER MONTEWAH MAY LUCKCOURAGEOUS KNIGHTYEE CHEONG BRAVE

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

7 147.5

PLACE

7 40

9 42

10 13.5

QUINELLA

7,10 209

QUINELLA PLACE

7,9 249.5

7,10 65

9,10 69.5

FORECAST

7,10 598

TIERCE

7,10,9 5,256

TRIO

7,9,10 688

FIRST 4

4,7,9,10 1,056

QUARTET

7,10,9,4 27,845

All pools (1 more)

3 PICK 1

A3 31

A2 —

A1 —