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Sha Tin · 2022-10-01 · 13:01

Race 1

Class 5 GOOD 1800m Course C+3 11 runners

Race 1 at Sha Tin on 2022-10-01 was Class 5 over 1800m, run on GOOD going. OWNERS' STAR, ridden by V Borges and trained by W Y So, won by N, with THIS IS CHARISMA second and SUPERB DADDY third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. The 3.1 favourite THIS IS CHARISMA finished 2nd.

Result

Official · 1.47.61
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 7 OWNERS' STAR Closed strongly B 1.47.61 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) V Borges · W Y So 3 14.0 N
2 10 THIS IS CHARISMA Closed strongly CP/TT Z Purton · D J Hall 5 3.1 N
3 9 SUPERB DADDY Closed strongly TT C L Chau · Y S Tsui 1 17.0 1/2
4 4 AMAZING NEWS Closed strongly PC/XB C Y Ho · C Fownes 2 6.7 3
5 8 TURF BRILLIANT B M Chadwick · W Y So 4 4.4 5
6 2 YEE CHEONG BRAVE Closed strongly TT K C Leung · A T Millard 6 30.0 5-1/2
7 5 EL JEFE Closed strongly A Badel · C H Yip 7 12.0 7-1/4
8 3 WINNING STEED Closed strongly B/TT L Ferraris · C H Yip 8 12.0 7-3/4
9 6 MISTER MONTE B Y L Chung · C W Chang 9 8.7 10-3/4
10 11 WAH MAY LUCK Led early B H N Wong · Y S Tsui 11 27.0 12-1/4
11 1 COURAGEOUS KNIGHT SR/B2/TT L Hewitson · C S Shum 10 20.0 15-1/2

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. OWNERS' STAR2. THIS IS CHARISMA+0.05L3. SUPERB DADDY+0.5L4. AMAZING NEWS+3L5. TURF BRILLIANT+5L6. YEE CHEONG BRAVE+5.5L7. EL JEFE+7.25L8. WINNING STEED+7.75L9. MISTER MONTE+10.75L10. WAH MAY LUCK+12.25L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2022-23
The model's top pick THIS IS CHARISMA (29.2%) finished 2nd — the winner OWNERS' STAR was rated #3. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 10 THIS IS CHARISMA 29.2% 3.43 2
2 4 AMAZING NEWS 12.6% 7.92 4
3 7 OWNERS' STAR 10.6% 9.43 1
4 8 TURF BRILLIANT 9.2% 10.89 5
5 9 SUPERB DADDY 8.1% 12.31 3
6 5 EL JEFE 7.9% 12.70 7
7 3 WINNING STEED 6.5% 15.47 8
8 6 MISTER MONTE 5.1% 19.51 9
9 11 WAH MAY LUCK 4.3% 23.25 10
10 1 COURAGEOUS KNIGHT 4.0% 24.75 11
11 2 YEE CHEONG BRAVE 2.5% 40.20 6
THIS IS CHARISMAAMAZING NEWSOWNERS' STAR — wonTURF BRILLIANTSUPERB DADDYEL JEFEWINNING STEEDMISTER MONTEWAH MAY LUCKCOURAGEOUS KNIGHTYEE CHEONG BRAVE

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

7 147.5

PLACE

7 40

9 42

10 13.5

QUINELLA

7,10 209

QUINELLA PLACE

7,9 249.5

7,10 65

9,10 69.5

FORECAST

7,10 598

TIERCE

7,10,9 5,256

TRIO

7,9,10 688

FIRST 4

4,7,9,10 1,056

QUARTET

7,10,9,4 27,845

All pools (1 more)

3 PICK 1

A2

A1

A3 31